Pick Heavy Favorite Wisconsin to Cover vs. South Florida

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, September 25, 2014 4:05 PM GMT

This capper started the 2014 college football betting campaign here at SBR with a red-hot 13-2 record. Read his breakdown of Saturday’s South Florida/Wisconsin game, and be the beneficiary of a free college football pick in this contest.

Bulls/Badgers Battle in Madison
The Wisconsin Badgers will host the South Florida Bulls on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin with the opening kickoff slated for 12:00 PM ET. The game will be televised by ESPNU. According to SBR's live college football odds, the Badgers are a 34.0 favorite, and the posted total is 51.0.

 

Bulls Trying to Regain Relevancy
South Florida enters this game on Saturday with a record of 2-2. Last Friday they were able to knock off conference rival Connecticut 17-14 at home, and covered as a 1.5 point favorite. The Bulls were able to hold the Huskies to just 145 yards of total offense in the game. Connecticut was a dismal 0 for 9 on 3rd down conversions, threw just 10-passes, and one of those passes resulted in a 70-yard interception return by South Florida’s Byron Jones. The reality of the situation is that the Bulls 2-wins have come over Western Carolina 36-31 in their home opener, and last week versus the 1-3 Huskies, who’s only win to date was 19-16 over Stony Brook. This week they’ll be taking on a whole different animal, when squaring off versus one the best teams in the Big 10.

 

Badgers off Blowout City
Wisconsin has started the season 2-1, and has recovered nicely since their season opening gut wrenching 28-24 defeat at the hands of LSU. The Badgers led that game 24-7 early in the 3rd quarter, and proceeded to allow LSU to score the last 18-points of the game. Last week was as dominating a performance that Badgers fans could’ve hoped for during a 68-17 rout of Bowling Green, and they easily covered as a 27.0 point favorite. Wisconsin is currently 2nd best in the country averaging 359.7 yards rushing per game. They’re also 9th in the country in total defense, holding opponents to just 266 total yards per contest.

 

Final Analysis
My rule of thumb in college football is to never lay more than 21-points on a favorite, and never take an underdog that you give no chance of winning the game outright. However, since I’m assigned this game, the most rational college football pick is on the Badgers minus the big number. Wisconsin will be able to pound the rock all day at the Bulls defense, wearing them down, and opening up some big plays in the passing game. Wisconsin has a strong home field, going 59-7 SU in their last 66 lined-games at Camp Randall, and that also includes 40-26 ATS (61%).

South Florida has gone a dismal 1-9 SU in their last 10 on the road, and their only win in that sequence came last season versus a pathetic Connecticut team. I can’t see how the Bulls can possibly score more than 10-points in this contest.

Free College Football Pick: Wisconsin -34.5 over South Florida at 5Dimes

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