Pick Georgia Southern ATS vs. New Mexico for College Football

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 2, 2014 9:30 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 2, 2014 9:30 PM GMT

Clear betting value in college football odds as Week 6 brings us the matchup between the Georgia Southern Eagles & the New Mexico State Aggies. Let's review who we like for your college football picks. 

Georgia Southern (-17-) vs. New Mexico State 8:00 PM ET
The heart and soul of statistical handicapping in football comes in isolating teams who dominate the opposition at the point of attack.  Nowhere is this better exemplified by the simple statistic that tells us that any team who double rushes their opponent is a 75% pointspread winner in college football.  In fact, in the previous 4 seasons, beginning in 2010, that record is 921-311 ATS (75%).  This season, the theory checks in with a record to date of 116-45 ATS (72%).   When chosing your Week 6 college football picks note this contest between GA Southern and New Mexico St. is a great statistical example of this concept.

GA Southern operates a dominant triple option attack.  The Eagles run the football on 50 of an average of their 63 plays per game.  That is 79% of the time!  That sets up a passing attack which is highly efficient, averaging 141 PYPG on 10.5 yards per attempt.      

Two weeks ago, I used the Eagles as a Top of the Ticket Hidden Gem in their 28-6 underdog romp at South Alabama.  Last week, the Eagles carried over that momentum into a 34-14, win and cover, against their FCS arch rival, Appalachian State.  Along with narrow losses on the road to Atlantic Coast Conference front runners NC State (24-23) and Ga Tech (42-38), Ga Southern is now 5-0 ATS.  But, GA Southern must now travel for a rare game in the western half of the country.  They do so with 10 full days of rest, giving them plenty of time to recover and prepare.  The linemaker has noticed and inflated the college footballl odds appropriately.  This week, it won’t matter!  For this is the epitome of a classic college football steamroller. 

Even playing the top flight competition, Ga Southern is averaging 374/7.5 overland.  That is the best running game in college football!  The Aggies of New Mexico State are among the worst defensive teams in the land.  Nowhere is that more true than at the point of attack where the Aggies are allowing 312/6.2.  In the last 3 weeks, New Mexico St. has allowed 42 to UTEP, 38 to New Mexico and 63 to Lousiana State University (LSU).  In that 56 point loss to the Bengal Tigers, LSU gained 363 yards overland. 

In what may be the final week in which there is still value, we must ride the GA Southern 5-0 ATS winning streak for yet another Top of the Ticket winner.

Free College Football Pick: GA Southern ATS at 5Dimes 

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