Pick Boise State Cover vs. Nevada for Week 6 College Football

Darin Zank

Thursday, October 2, 2014 4:52 PM GMT

Boise State owns the rivalry with Nevada, winning 13 of the last 14 meetings, but the Wolf Pack has covered the spread the last five times they've met. Who will grab the cash when the teams meet in Reno Saturday night?

 

The Betting Odds
Most college football odds opened this game with Boise State favored by a point and a half, the total proffered at right around 50. But as of Thursday morning most shops had bumped the Broncos to -3.5, and the total to 52.5.

Those who think the Wolf Pack might win this game outright could find a price of around +145 on the moneyline at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":294082, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Broncos-Wolf Pack: The Set-Up
Boise State is 3-2 both SU and ATS in its first season under Coach Harsin. The Broncos opened with a 35-13 loss to Ole Miss, missing on the cover as nine-point dogs. They then bounced back to beat Colorado State 37-24, covering as seven-point favorites. Boise State then won at Connecticut 38-21, covering at -14, and beat Louisiana-Lafayette 34-9, covering at -17. But last week the Broncos went to Colorado Springs and lost to Air Force 28-14, falling outright as 13-point favorites.

Boise State fell behind the Falcons 28-0 last week, and turned the ball over seven times. BSU outgained Air Force by 132 yards, but got outrushed by 190 yards.

On the season the Broncos have outgained and outrushed four of their five opponents.

Boise State senior QB Grant Hedrick, who's started 10 games in his career, has completed 70 percent of his passes this season, but he's also thrown nine interceptions.

On the homey side of this match-up Nevada is 3-1 both SU and ATS in its second season under Coach Polian. The Wolf Pack opened with a 28-19 victory over Southern Utah, but couldn't cover as a 24-point favorite. They then upset Washington State 24-13, winning outright as three-point home dogs. They then lost at Arizona 35-28, but covered as 20-point road dogs. And last week the Pack won at San Jose State 21-10, covering as six-point favorites.

But Nevada got outgained by the Spartans by 190 yards, managed just 64 yards through the air, and lost the time-of-possession battle by a 36-24 margin. The Pack needed an interception return for a touchdown with nine minutes to go in the game to cover the spread.

Nevada has been outgained in three of its first four games, but has outrushed three of its first four foes.

Wolf Pack senior QB Cody Fajardo, with 33 career starts under his belt, owns a career 43/19 TD/INT ratio, and has run for 2,600 yards and 34 scores.

 

Broncos-Wolf Pack Recent History
These teams have met each season since 1996, with Boise State winning 13 of 17 match-ups. The only time since 1998 that Nevada has beaten the Broncos came in that wild game back in 2010, when Colin Kaepernick rallied the Pack from a 17-0 deficit to tie the score at 31-31 with 10 seconds to go. Nevada then won it overtime when Boise State's kicker missed a short field goal.

That was the only game the Broncos lost that year.

Last year Boise State beat Nevada 34-17, but the Pack covered as 24-point dogs. Nevada led that game 17-7 at the half, but the Broncos won the second half 27-0.

Boise State outgained the Wolf Pack that day 557-373 and outrushed them 407-165.

 

Broncos-Wolf Pack Betting Trends
Nevada is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Boise State.

The Wolf Pack went 2-0 ATS as home dogs last year.

The last four games in this series have played 'under' the totals.

These two teams are a combined 2-7 on the totals this season.

 

Broncos-Wolf Pack Free College Football Picks
Boise State owns the advantage on defense, and has the 'bounce-back' factor on its side, after the loss to Air Force last week. So while we don't like going with the flow, we'll give the points and go with the Broncos for our free college football pick on this contest.