Penn State-Maryland High on Early Line Movement for Week 13

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 20, 2017 4:01 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 20, 2017 4:01 PM UTC

Let’s preview three of the more larger early spread move games in what is the last regular week of the FBS season for most schools and and offer up a pair of Thanksgiving weekend picks where it seems the visitors may possess value at the betting windows.

NCAAF Week 13 is quirky, with three MAC games on Tuesday, nothing Wednesday, a Thanksgiving edition of the Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and #22 Mississippi State on Thursday (MSU -15½, BookMaker), 15 games on Black Friday and then 43 games on Saturday, including the big SEC West Division battle and Iron Bowl between #1 Alabama and #8 Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn in a game which has justoddsmakers Offshore posted Alabama -3½ (-112, Pinnacle), -4 (-113, BetOnline) and 4½ (5Dimes) for a game that could drastically shake up the CFP Playoff picture and race for the 2018 CFP National Champions should Jalen Hurts, Damien Harris, Bo Scarbrough, Calvin Ridley and the Crimson Tide lose to Kerryon Johnson and their huge intrastate rivals the Tigers on Saturday afternoon (CBS, 3:30 pm ET) in one of the biggest games in both the SEC and the 2017 Regular Season. Auburn will definitely be ready.



Looking at some other of the key NCAA Football Week 13 game odds, we see #8 Ohio State as big 13-point Road Favorites (5Dimes) against #19 Michigan at The Big House in Ann Arbor early on Saturday (FOX, 12 pm ET) in a ame JT Barrett and the Buckeyes need to keep their CFP Playoff hopes alive (OSU -10½, BookMaker) with #5 Wisconsin still undefeated and waiting for someone in the current Top 4 (1—Alabama, 2—Clemson, 3— Miami Florida, 4—Oklahoma) to slip up. And at least one more than likely will.

Another Week 13 game that has witnessed some solid movement is the #12 Penn State at Maryland game which we’ll preview below and saw enough early Nittany Lions money to drive the opening number up from (Penn State minus) 18 to as high as 21½ (BookMaker). The only other game to move 3½ in that first wave of early action was the Oregon-Oregon State Pac-12 game on Saturday (which we’ll also examine below), which saw the Ducks go from initial 21½-point Home chalks all the way up to 25 (BookMaker) against the Beavers.


Here are the early (Side) NCAA Football games for Week 12 games which saw their Point Spreads move 2½ points or more in the first three hours of trading after opening on Sunday with analysis for three of the scheduled games which have seen bigger Line Moves. It was a chop-chop weekend in Week 12 with Favorites (52-13 SU) finishing a game above .500 ATS (33-32), Home teams going 44-21, but a costly 29-36 ATS and there were more Unders (34) than Overs (31) in Week 12, The biggest upset of the week came in the Big 12 on Saturday at Oklahoma State where Kansas State got up on the Cowboys and rode them like the horse, winning outright, holding on as 19½-point Road Dogs in Stillwater, 45-40 (KSU +900 Moneyline, 5Dimes).


No. 12 Penn State (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) opened up as 18-point Road Favorites at Maryland (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS), and saw enough early Sharp action to move the number 3½ points up to as high as -21½ at Offshore sportsbook BookMaker for their Big Ten meeting on Saturday from Maryland Stadium in College Park (BTN, 3:30 pm ET). The Sharps here obviously know how good Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions have been ATS the L2 seasons (15-5 ATS L20) and are well aware of the massive QB problems the Terrapins have been having. This early movement seems like smart money as Penn State will be the more motivated team in this spot and the series Trends show Penn State is 37-2-1 SU lifetime against Maryland with RB Ty Johnson, WR DJ Moore and the Terrapins losing last season at State College, 38-14 in a game where the Terps closed as 2½-point Home chalks.

With this being the last game on the slate for Maryland, expect for them to go for it early on, possibly expending too much Energy and with the differences in starting QBs between the Nittany Lions Trace McSorley and Maryland Sophomore Max Bortenschlager (Shoulder -- —who has been fighting an Injury and went 13-for-25 for 121 yards passing in Maryland’s 17-7 Week 12 Loss at East Lansing -- playing out over 60 minutes, this seems a marked edge for the visitors. Penn State has long controlled the all-time series against Maryland with the Nittany Lions are 37-2-1 in the 40 meetings but almost all of those contests came when the Nittany Lions and Terrapins weren’t both members of the 14-member Big Ten Conference.

Host Oregon (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) opened up -21½ (BetOnline) against rivals Oregon State (1-10 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) for their Week 13 and has now been bet up 4½ points to big 26-point Favorites for their Civil War set for this Saturday from Reser Stadium in Corvallis (ESPN2, 7 pm ET) in the game which has seen the largest spread move after Open on extremely heavy Oregon money. Why? Have you seen Oregon State play? After beating FCS side Portland State in Week 2, the Beavers have L9 straight SU, but the series Trends here show Oregon State is 2-0 ATS the L2 seasons. But the Beavers were much better in 2015 (9-2 ATS) and with Oregon State allowing 463.6 ypg (#118) this campaign and Oregon averaging 443.2 ypg (#34), this should be high-scoring with the Over possibly the best play.


Point Spread rats Hawai’i (3-8 SU, 2-8-1 ATS) opened up as 4½-point Home Underdogs against BYU (3-9 SU/ATS) in Week 13, and strong Rainbow Warriors money has driven this number down 2 points already to (BYU minus) 2½ (Heritage) and what seems like a value from this couch for this Week 13 game on Saturday night (CBS Sports Network, 9 pm EST) as Hawai’i hasn’t covered an FBS game ATS at Home at Aloha Stadium (FieldTurf) in Honolulu since Barack Obama was still in the White House (Week 5 of 2016 Regular Season vs Nevada). After getting crunched at Utah State on Saturday in Week 12 and losing as modest 10-point Road Underdogs, 38-0 in Logan, Utah, the Rainbow Warriors are now a money-burning 4-14-1 ATS their L19 games (22.2%) and haven’t covered this season since Sept. 2 against FCS side Western Carolina (HAW -19½, HAW 41 WCU 18) going 0-8-1 ATS their L9. BYU struggled with Massachusetts in Week 12, losing outright 16-10 and failing to cover ATS as small 3½-point Home Favorites in Provo.

The Trends here show that Hawai’i is 6-5 ATS against BYU since 1992 (BYU 9-2 SU) with the last meeting coming way back in 2011 when Greg McMackin was still the Rainbow Warriors Head Coach and Sean Combs had some other weird-ass name. In that game, then MWC member BYU rolled to a 40-21 victory and cover ATS as 8-point Home Favorites in the last game of that season over visiting Hawai’i. The Rainbow Warriors have been the worst team ATS the L3 seasons in FBS going a nomadic 10-26-1 ATS (27.8%), but even with the Cougars being without starting QB Tyler Mangum most of the year and possessing one of the worst Total Offenses in FBS (314.7 ypg, # 122), Hawai’i has just been too easy to fade. And despite playing some real rats this season, Independent BYU has also faced some very strong College Football teams in LSU (Week 2), intrastate rivals Utah (Week 3), Wisconsin (Week 4), Boise State (Week 7), Mississippi State (Week 8) and Fresno State (Week 10) and the Cougars should be able to generate 18-30+ points here against the Rainbow Warriors who have been outscored 128-51 in their L4 games (SDS, @UNLV, FRESNO ST, @ UTAH ST). 


#16 MISSISSIPPI STATE opened -14 vs Ole Miss, wagered up 1½ to -11 (Thursday)

#13 UCF opened -9 vs #22 Usf, bet up 2 points to -11 (Friday)

#17 MEMPHIS opened -25 vs Ec, bet up 3 points to -28 (JustBet)

FLORIDA STATE opened -3½ vs Florida, bet up 2 points to -5½ (BookMaker)

Florida Atlantic opened -20 at CHARLOTTE, bet up 2 points to -22 (BetOnline)

NEVADA opened PK vs Unlv, bet up 3 points to -3 (-105, BookMaker, YouWager)

#22 NORTHWESTERN opened -14 vs Illinois, bet up 2½ to -16½ (BetOnline)

Miami Ohio opened -21 at BALL STATE, wagered down 3½ to -17½ (Tuesday)

Arkansas State opened -10 at UL MONROE, wagered down 2 points to -8

#4 Clemson opened -16 at SOUTH CAROLINA, wagered down 2 points to -14

All games in board rotation order with HOME TEAMS in CAPS

Free NCAAF Picks: OSU -10.5 over Michigan, BYU -2.5 over Wyoming
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