Penn St. vs. Ohio St. College Football Picks: Buckeyes Overvalued Once Again

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 8:05 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2015 8:05 PM GMT

In a Saturday night marquee matchup, Penn State travels to Ohio State for this Big 10 contest. Read this article before placing your college football picks so you can jump over to the winning side.

Penn State vs. Ohio State (-17) 8:00 ET ABCTV
In a Saturday night marquee matchup, Penn State travels to Ohio State for this Big 10 contest as televised by ABC. Last year, Ohio State was life and death in the Nittany Valley, before surviving a 31-24 OT victory vs. Penn State. If the Penn State defense can once again rise to the occasion, this contest will finish well Under the 17 point impost.

Each week, the nation is prepared for defending champion, Ohio State., to bust out of its funk. This week, they are expecting it to happen once again with the motivation of last year’s narrow victory. The opinion of this bureau is that the real Buckeyes may not show up until late November in their season-ending battles with Michigan State and Michigan. Last week, Ohio State trailed Maryland (who was in the process of firing HC Edsall) early in the contest. They finally erupted for a (49-28) win, but failed to cover the 30+ point impost. They allowed the Terps 386 yards, including 253 overland. That came a week after a 34-27 survival at Indiana, in which they allowed the Hoosiers a balanced 402 yards. The truth is that since covering Virginia Tech in the opener (when key Hokie QB Brewer left the game with a shoulder injury), an overpriced Ohio State team has gone 0-5 ATS, failing to cover by a combined 64 points or approximately 13 PPG. Today, they play the best defensive team they have faced in that timeframe. Until the Buckeyes wake up from their somnambulant state, I see little reason to back them!

Penn State began their defensive turnaround with the hiring of 2nd year HC Franklin at the start of the 2014 season. Last year, the Lions allowed just 19 PPG on 279 YPG and 101/3.0 overland. This year’s numbers, with 7 defensive starters returning, are even better. Penn St. is allowing just 14 PPG, 288 YPG, 4.3 YP play and 119/3.0 overland. Last week, against an Indiana team who took Ohio State to the wire 2 weeks ago, Penn State won (29-7), outgaining Indiana 420-234. There are questions about the explosiveness of the Penn State offense from whom more was expected. Nine returning offensive starters led by QB Hackenberg are averaging just 25 PPG. But, that may be enough to cover this generous impost.

 

Final Analysis
Despite Ohio State  on a 0-5 ATS run, the public and linemaker perception is for this team to perform like last year’s championship unit. Therefore, this line is exactly where it would have been at the start of the season. That squarely puts the college football odds in the favor of Penn State, making them a college football pick as double-digit dog.

College Football Pick: Penn State +17 at Bet365

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