Pac-12 Week 7 Overview: Washington to Edge Oregon in Ranked Clash

Jay Pryce

Monday, October 8, 2018 8:02 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 8, 2018 8:02 PM UTC

The line has dropped significantly from advanced numbers in the much-anticipated No. 7 Washington-No. 17 Oregon clash. Are the Ducks overvalued in this spot? The numbers and are thoughts on this matchup and the rest of the Week 7 Pac-12 action here. 

Pac-12 Spotlight: No. 7 Washington (-3.5) at No. 17 OregonSaturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, on ABCFree NCAAF Pick: Washington ATSBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3448795, "sportsbooksIds":[19,93,238,169,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

In May, No. 17 Oregon (4-1 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) opened as a 10-point underdog in advanced lerines to No. 7 Washington (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) in the 111th clash between bitter Northwest rivals. The line reopened at a field goal Sunday, despite the Huskies having a more impressive résumé. The Ducks have played the 85th easiest schedule; their only good win a 42-24 rout over then-No. 24 Cal last time out. The Huskies, meanwhile, have faced the 23rd toughest slate. Each program shares a single loss.

The Ducks are coming off a bye week, and definitely need the extra preparation to avoid a rerun of head coach Mario Cristobal’s first encounter against Washington’s Chris Petersen. Washington romped 38-3 in the meeting last season at Husky Stadium, holding Oregon to 31 passing yards on 7-of-13 completions.

NFL-prospect Justin Herbert is under center for Oregon this time around and bettors should see improvement in the passing game. The 6-6 junior has thrown for 1,411 yards, 15 TDs, and 5 INTs, on 88-of-136 passes. Herbert is just 2-3 SU and ATS , however, in his career against ranked opponents when starting, leading the Ducks to 30.4 points per game.

Wahington’s offense is turning a corner after a sluggish start. The Huskies currently pick up 9.2 yards per passing attempt behind the arm of senior QB Jake Browning. The total rates as the 17th most among FBS programs. The unit’s strength, however, is sustaining drives. Petersen’s squad converts third downs 51.5 percent of the time. This will prove advantageous keeping a dangerous Ducks offense off the field.

Our numbers pit the Huskies as 5-point favorites in this spot. Oregon has the offensive weapons to make this meeting much more interesting than the last few, but the defense is still suspect. Stanford second-half comeback anyone? The Huskies have put up 108 points combined the last two meetings, and will push 40 here. For what it’s worth, Petersen is 37-0 SU and 26-10-1 ATS when leading Washington to more than 30 points in a contest.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

🔊🔥

Husky Nation brought the energy in LA.#PurpleReign pic.twitter.com/my9bBwZwUP

— Washington Football (@UW_Football) October 7, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

Around The Pac-12 (All Games Saturday Unless Noted)

Arizona at Utah (-13.5), Friday, 10 p.m. ET, on ESPN
The "under" has cashed in two-thirds of contests (14-7) when Utah (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) lays double digits to Pac-12 rivals. Toss out its 62-31 romp over FCS Southern Utah, and Arizona (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) posts just 24.0 points per game. The Wildcats have come up shy of their team total projections against every FBS opponent by an average 8.7 points.

UCLA at California (-7.5), 7 p.m. ET, on Pac-12 Network
Cal (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS), which ranks in the top 10 nationally allowing 5.7 yards per passing attempt, is 6-1 ATS behind head coach Justin Wilcox facing teams posting fewer than 8.0 per contest. The Golden Bears are covering a 5.2 average line by 9.2 points per game. The work-in-progress UCLA (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) passing offense averages 6.1 on the year.

No. 19 Colorado at USC (-7), 10:30 p.m. ET, on FS1
Colorado (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) is just 2-18 SU (9-10-1 ATS) catching points on the road in conference play under head coach Mike MacIntyre. The Buffaloes average 20.0 points per game with a single-digit line in this scenario. The "under" has hit in three of four. USC (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS), meanwhile, yields 22.7 points per game as the betting favorite in Pac-12 play behind Clay Helton. The ‘under’ is 15-7-1 (68.2 percent) overall.

comment here