Pac-12 Title Game: Rested USC Will Punish Stanford Again

usc stanford

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, November 28, 2017 6:19 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2017 6:19 PM UTC

Friday night features the Pac-12 Championship Game as No. 14 Stanford and No. 11 USC tangle at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Let’s review the college football odds and see which side is poised to cash.

Free NCAAF Pick: USC -4Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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No. 14 Stanford (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) vs. No. 11 USC (10-2 SU, 4-8 ATS)
  • USC is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
  • USC is 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • USC is 1-0 ATS vs. Stanford this season.
  • Stanford is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
  • Stanford is 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
  • Stanford is 3-5 ATS against conference opponents this season.

The public is notorious for having short-term memories when it comes to all things sports betting. Joe Q. Public will take a gander at the college football odds in Friday's Pac-12 championship clash and think about Stanford’s resounding 38-20 victory over Notre Dame as 3-point home underdogs last week. They will then think back two weeks ago to when the Trojans last played and consider that they eked out a 28-23 win over their archrival UCLA as 14-point home chalk. In other words, one team looked impressive while the other, eh, not so much.

Well, we are here to tell you that the 42-24 trouncing that USC delivered to Stanford earlier this season was no fluke. The Trojans had already clinched their Pac-12 title berth before they took on the Bruins, and the game plan clearly focused on keeping their golden boy Sam Darnold upright and his uniform clean. Darnold was sacked only once in 28 passing attempts, but it was the ground game, special teams, and a solid defensive effort that carried the Trojans to victory.

The sharps are clearly on the Trojans as the college football odds have risen from USC -3 to -4 as of this writing because the public will lean towards the Cardinal off their impressive win over the Fighting Irish. Despite what you may have heard, the wise guys aren’t always on the underdog, and big early money on USC has caused this line to move off the critical 3, which can cause all sorts of problems for bookmakers in terms of getting middled or sided. USC has a huge advantage under center and boasts the 18th ranked passing attack, averaging over 292 yards per game, while their opponents are 97th in the nation and produce just 183.7 passing yards per contest.

The only edge Stanford has is team defense, but the Cardinal's 20.7 points allowed average should jump after Darnold and Co. get done shredding their secondary. In addition, USC has had two weeks to rest, heal and prepare. As long as the Trojans remain under a touchdown favorite, and they will, then I suggest backing USC in your college football picks.

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