Outstanding NCAA Football Odds in Wisconsin vs. Northwestern

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, September 30, 2014 3:11 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 30, 2014 3:11 PM GMT

If you are interested in taking betting advice from an experienced College Football handicapper, this report covering the Wisconsin vs. Northwestern match on October 4th is just right for you.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Northwestern Wildcats 3:30 ET ESPN2
Every week, this handicapper share College Football picks, deciphering the conundrum to isolate teams who are in optimal situations and those that are in negative situations.  More specifically, the handicapper must decide whether a team is playing with positive momentum or in a letdown situation, or if a team is playing with negative momentum or in a bounce back situation.  When the handicapper believes the situations are divergent, he has the makings of a strong situational play.  Such is the case today in this Big 10 matchup, when Wisconsin visits Evanston, Illinois to face the Northwestern Wildcats Saturday afternoon.    

One of my favorite concepts in handicapping College Football and College Basketball is a situation referred to as “a blind hog.”  It comes from the adage that even a blind hog finds an acorn on occasion.  The analogy to college football comes when today’s inferior home team has pulled a road upset as an underdog of 7 or more points.  Completing this situational play is when our superior road favorite is off a non-covering effort last week.

The situation described in the previous paragraph plays out today in relationship to last week’s games.  In those contests, we witnessed Northwestern pulling a monumental upset of Penn St. (29-6) as +10 road dog.  Wisconsin, following their 68-17 smashing of Bowling Green, came a bit flat in their 27-10 non-covering effort vs. USF, as the Badgers looked forward to their (8) game Big 10 schedule ahead.  This week, the Badgers come with full emotion, while Northwestern will be a bit sated.

Last year, Wisconsin owned this matchup with a resounding 35-6 walloping of the Wildcats, in which they outrushed Northwestern 286-44.  In short, they STEAMROLLED them into submission!  Remember the basis of these STEAMROLLERS finds that any team, who outrushes their opponent by a greater than 2 to 1 margin, has a 75% chance to cover the pointspread.  Such a scenario will probably be repeated on Saturday.  Northwestern figures to have little success on the ground with an offense that averages just 112/3.0 against a Wisconsin rushing defense that allows 86/2.8.  On the other side of the ball, it appears that no one will be able to slow down this Wisconsin ground attack.  For the season, Wisconsin is averaging 343/7.0 overland.  Thus, it will be no surprise if the running yard discrepancy and final score do not replicate that of last season. 

For technical support, consider that Northwestern HC Fitzgerald is just 2-12 ATS of late with a record of 2-5 ATS as home dog.  Conversely, Wisconsin HC Andersen is on a 21-9 ATS burst, including 11-6 ATS while coaching the Badgers.

When the situation, fundamentals and the technicals all converge, we have the makings of a solid free pick at outstanding line value accorded to us as a result of last week’s games.     

Free College Football Pick: Wisconsin (-9-)

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