Outmanned New Mexico State Defense Makes Arkansas State -17 The College Football Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, November 24, 2015 11:01 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2015 11:01 PM UTC

We look at the Arkansas State vs. New Mexico State Sun Belt Conference game for our Blind Hog Play of the Week, putting the college football odds in your favor with our selection.

Arkansas St. (-17) vs. New Mexico St. 4:00 ET
Arkansas St. visits Las Cruces this Saturday for their matchup against New Mexico St. in Sun Belt play.  Last week in this very space, we “went against the world” with our Blind Hog selection on Colorado St. against New Mexico, a team who had just pulled huge consecutive upsets.  Final:  Colorado St. (-1) 28, New Mexico 21…Winner!  That was part of a 9-4 ATS week on SBR Videos that lifted the 2 week record to 21-5 ATS on this site.  For Saturday, we are back at it again fading a team in the role of home dog, who has Now Won 3 Consecutive Games Outright as an Underdog.  That would be New Mexico St., a 3-7 SU team, whose only 3 victories of the season have come in their last 3 games.    Today, they face the league leader, Arkansas St., who is undefeated in the conference and beat the Aggies by a score of 68-35 last season. 


New Mexico State
Obviously, this New Mexico St. team is making progress for 3rd year HC Doug Martin.  The previous 3 years, New Mexico St. was a combined 5-31 SU, 8-23 ATS.  In those seasons, they averaged just 22 PPG, while allowing 41 PPG.  This year, those numbers have improved on the offensive side of the ball with the Aggies averaging 28/431. But, they continue to be among the nation’s worst defensive teams, allowing 44/530 YPG.  This includes at least 268 YPG both running and passing.


Arkansas State
Arkansas St. has had 2 weeks to prepare for this contest, after a (59-21) victory as 14 point favorite against LA Monroe.  That lifted their record to 2-0 SU ATS as road favorite, as they previously defeated S. Alabama in the role of road favorite (49-31).  Combined with their 40-27 upset of App St. as 11 point underdog, it puts the Red Wolves in position, at 6-0 SU, for the conference title and makes them 3-0 SU ATS away vs. the league with coverage of 60 points combined in their 3 road games.  Led by a now healthy QB Knighten, the Wolves have won every league game by 10 or more points.  Key is an explosive offense averaging 39 PPG.  They will score at will against the outmanned New Mexico St. defense. 

Last week, I explained the great profit potential in fading home dogs who are off a large upset win the previous week.  It creates a letdown for the inferior home dog and provides extra motivation for the road favorite.  Now, we get to use that theory against a team who is on a 5-38 SU run, prior to winning and covering 3 consecutive times in the role of underdog.  The party in Las Cruces ends very early today!  Red Wolves big!  I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor with my college football pick on Arkansas St. against New Mexico St. as the Blind Hog Play of the Week.

College Football Picks: Arkansas State -17 at Bovada

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