Oregon State vs. Hawaii College Football Odds & Betting Picks

Darin Zank

Friday, September 5, 2014 2:23 PM GMT

After a lackluster performance to open this season, with a total whiff against the point spread, the Beavers head for the islands to tangle with the Rainbow Warriors Saturday night (10:30 pm ET). Here's our breakdown of this match-up, and our free NCAAF pick. At least the price is right.

The Betting Line
As of Friday morning the college football odds markets were listing Oregon State at -10 points, with a total of 59. Bettors who might be thinking Hawaii could win this game outright could get the 'Bows at around +325 on the various money lines. 

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Game Set-Up
Oregon State opened this season with a 29-14 victory over FCS Portland State, coming nowhere close to covering the spread as a 32-point favorite. The Beavers actually trailed at the half 14-13, then won the second half 16-0. Oregon State out-gained the Vikings 504-214 and held the ball for 39 minutes, but just couldn't put those advantages to any good financial use.

Oregon State returned 14 starters this season from a team that went 7-6 last year. Seven starters are back on offense, led by Heisman candidate QB Sean Mannion and last year's top two rushers, but leading receiver Brandin Cooks is gone, along with three of the big boys along the offensive line. And seven starers returned on defense, including last year's top five tacklers.

The Beavers averaged 35 points per game last year, but allowed 31 PPG. This year they could match that first figure, and should improve upon the second.

Hawaii opened its third season under head coach Norm Chow with a 17-16 loss to Washington, but easily covered the spread as a 17-point home dog. The Rainbows led early 10-0, and only trailed by a point with 13 minutes to go, but couldn't complete the upset. Hawaii out-gained the Huskies 424-336, out-rushed 'em 217-174 and held the ball for over 34 minutes. That's how you cover point spreads. 

Hawaii returned 13 starters from a team that went 1-11 last year. Seven starters are back on offense, including last year's top two rushers and four along the offensive line. But they have to replace their starting quarterback and leading receiver. And while six starters are back on defense, they lost last year's top four tacklers.

The Rainbows averaged 27 PPG last year, but gave up 39 PPG. At the moment it's hard to tell whether they'll improve upon that first figure, but they should improve upon the second.

 

Beavers-Warriors Recent History
These teams met in Week 2 last season in Corvallis, Oregon State winning 33-14 but Hawaii covering at +27. The Beavers led early 14-0 but with help from an interception return for a score the Warriors went to halftime with a 14-14 tie. OSU then won the second half 19-0.

Oregon State out-gained Hawaii that night 508-239 and held the ball for almost 40 minutes.

 

Beavers-Warriors Betting Trends
Oregon State is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  

Hawaii is just 1-5 SU and 3-6 ATS as a home dog over the last two seasons.

But the Rainbows are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Pac-12 teams.

 

Free College Football Pick
College football teams often make big strides in their third seasons under new coaching regimes, and Hawaii is in its third season under Coach Chow. And the Rainbows played well last week against a very decent Washington team. So we'll go with the home dog here and take Hawaii, plus the points, for our free college football pick.