Oregon State vs. USC Free College Football Picks for Week 4

Oregon State has won two straight following a season-opening loss to Purdue, and the Beavers will kick off their Pac-12 schedule with a trip to USC. The Trojans won their first game under interim coach Donte Williams and are 2-1 overall, with a loss to Stanford that got their coach fired.

Let's see the NCAAF odds.

Oregon State Beavers vs. USC Trojans

Saturday, September 25, 2021 - 10:30 PM ET at Los Angeles Memorial Stadium

A pair of 2-1 Pac-12 teams meet in Los Angeles as Oregon State travels to USC on Saturday. The game will be the conference opener for the Beavers, who have won two straight over Hawaii and Idaho after opening the season with a loss to Purdue.

The Trojans are 1-0 under interim coach Donte Williams, who took over after Clay Helton was fired following a shocking Week Two loss to Stanford. The Trojans rebounded under Williams to blow out Washington State.

https://youtu.be/EqxhqUuG7SQ

Rare Winning Record

While a 1-1 start got USC’s coach fired, Oregon State’s 2-1 record represents the best start to a season for the Beavers since 2015. Oregon State is also coming off of a resounding 42-0 win over Idaho, the team’s first shutout since 2008.

While the last two opponents haven’t been on the level of top Pac-12 teams, the numbers Oregon State has put up on offense have still been impressive. The Beavers are the Pac-12 leader in total offense and third in scoring. They’ve allowed only three sacks and eight tackles for loss, which both lead the Pac-12, and the Beavers are converting more than half of their third-down attempts.

The team is doing all of this with their third-sting quarterback, as well. Expected starter Tristan Gebbia is still recovering from a hamstring injury and hasn’t played this year. Sam Noyer got the start against Purdue but was benched midway through the loss. Chance Nolan took over and has completed 70 percent of his passes for 634 yards, which both rank in the top four in the Pac-12.

The Beavers’ running game has also been solid, led by B.J. Baylor, who has run for multiple touchdowns in all three games this year, the first Oregon State player to do that since 2012.

The USC Trojans take to the field. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Changes in Troy

In addition to the coaching change, the Trojans may have a new starting quarterback. Kedon Slovis, in his third year as starting quarterback, was sacked in the first quarter of last week’s game and didn’t get up. True freshman Jaxson Dart took over and took the college football world by storm. He was 30-for-46 passing for 391 yards and four touchdowns, helping USC to break open a close game against Washington State.

Following that performance, there was speculation among fans and media that Slovis would have to transfer and that Dart’s presence would help attract top coaching candidates to the USC job.

The team has not released much information about Slovis’ injury, although Coach Williams said he expected him to be able to play.

“Yes, I expect him to practice tomorrow and continue to get better," he said, Sunday. "He got some X-rays and an MRI and it came back negative, so I expect him to be out there as soon possible and you know, join the quarterback battle."

Making matters even more complicated, Dart didn’t practice on Monday. Williams said that the freshman was “dinged up” and is “day-to-day.” He appeared to hurt his knee when he was tackled on Saturday and played the second half with a brace.

The uncertainty over who will start would seem to present a preparation challenge for Oregon State, but Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith doesn’t seem too worried.

“Both those quarterbacks, they’re good players, whoever’s playing,” Smith said. “We don’t see them wholesale changing from one quarterback to the other in regard to the plays they’re running.”

Head coach Clay Helton of the USC Trojans n Los Angeles, California. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

The Pick

USC has the name recognition and an edge in talent on the roster. What the Trojans don’t have, however, is a fully healthy quarterback. Oregon State has been the Pac-12 doormat since the days when the conference was known as the Pac-8, but Coach Smith is building a solid program. The team has the offensive talent to put up points and a defense that is solid. The Beavers may not get their first win in Southern Cal since 1960, but they’ll cover the double-digit spread for our NCAAF picks.

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.