This year's edition of the Civil War features two ranked teams as the ninth-ranked Oregon Ducks battle the 22nd-ranked Oregon State Beavers. Let's dive into the matchup with our Oregon vs. Oregon State picks.
One of the Pac-12 Conference’s fiercest rivalries will be renewed Saturday afternoon when the Ducks face the Beavers.
Oregon (8-3 ATS, 6-5 O/U) managed to rebound from its loss to Washington last week with a hard-fought home win over Utah. Although the Ducks’ playoff aspirations are dead, they can clinch a berth in the Pac-12 Championship Game with a win Saturday.
Meanwhile, Oregon State (9-2 ATS, 6-5 O/U) still has a chance to notch the program’s first 10-win season since 2006. The Beavers won five of their last six games, including a beatdown of Arizona State last week.
Here are our best college football Week 13 Oregon vs. Oregon State picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Oregon vs. Oregon State Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 26, 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
- Weather: 50 degrees, 9.5% chance of precipitation, 2-4 mph SW winds
Oregon vs. Oregon State Odds
Oregon vs. Oregon State Odds Analysis
The point spread opened at Oregon -3 and has since been bet down to -2.5. The betting splits have been interesting, however. While Oregon State has drawn most of the cash, the ticket share lies with Oregon.
The total first opened up at 56.5, and the market move favored the Over. The Over/Under now sits at 58.
Once again, betting splits are worth noting with regard to the game total. While 54% of the cash is on the Under, 72% of the tickets favor the Over.
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Oregon vs. Oregon State Picks
Oregon vs. Oregon State ATS Pick
Oregon -3 (-105) ★★
Quarterback Bo Nix was a game-time decision last week against Utah, but managed to play through an ankle injury suffered the week prior. Although he lacked his usual mobility, Nix’s presence was vital to Oregon coming away with the win.
If season statistics hold true, Nix will have a huge impact on Saturday’s outcome. Oregon State allows college football's ninth-fewest rushing yards per game. Much like last week, it could be tough sledding on the ground for running backs Noah Whittington and Mar’Keise Irving.
Fortunately for Oregon, this offense is hardly a one-trick pony. The Ducks are a top-20 passing offense on a per-game basis. Washington’s aerial attack was successful against OSU's defense three weeks ago. There’s no reason to believe Nix and the Ducks can't do the same.
On the other side of the ball, Oregon’s own issues at defending the pass are well-known. The Ducks allow a whopping 298.0 passing yards per game, an FBS fourth most. However, bettors have every reason to question whether Oregon State can expose this weakness.
Freshman quarterback Ben Gulbranson filled in admirably for the Beavers since starter Chance Nolan became injured. However, Oregon State’s offense is based on running the ball. With injuries also a factor in the Beavers’ backfield, it’s tough to trust OSU to gash a sturdy Oregon defensive front.
Oregon vs. Oregon State O/U Pick
Under 59 (-110) ★★★
The last thing Oregon State can afford is to let this game turn into an offensive shootout. The Beavers simply don't have the offensive weapons to keep pace with the Ducks in a high-scoring affair.
On the bright side, OSU’s defense has been lights-out at home all season long. All five FBS schools that visited Reser Stadium failed to score more than 17 points. Even USC, one of the nation’s top offenses, didn't surpass that mark.
A high-powered Oregon offense could find it difficult to pile up points Saturday. Coupled with a Ducks’ D able to hold its own against a run-heavy Oregon State O-line and a final combined total of more than 59 points is a lot to ask.
The line already increased 2.5 points relative to opening. With the best value on the Over long gone, buying back in the opposite direction makes the best choice. Several sportsbooks still list the Over/Under at 58.5, making odds shopping a vital part of this handicap.
Oregon vs. Oregon State Prop Pick
Oregon State team total: Under 28.5 (-120) ★★★★
Since the start of conference play, Oregon State only surpassed this team total prop of 28.5 points on three occasions. While all three of those games were within the past month, there’s no denying Colorado, California and Arizona State are among the worst Pac-12 teams.
Against Power 5 opponents with a winning record, it's been much tougher sledding for the Beavers offensively. Oregon State’s desire to run the football will play to the strengths of Oregon’s defense, something that can't be overstated.
With other sportsbooks listing Oregon State's team total a full point lower at 27.5, DraftKings is the ideal spot to place this wager.
Where to Bet on Oregon-Oregon State Picks
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Oregon-Oregon State picks made 11/25/2022 at 4:21 p.m. ET.