Juicy Prop Bets For Orange Bowl Between Oklahoma And Alabama

Thursday, December 27, 2018 2:44 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 27, 2018 2:44 PM UTC

Get the latest college football picks on the Orange Bowl between Alabama and Oklahoma. The game from Miami Gardens is at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 29 on ESPN.  Bet confidently with tips from SBRPicks.com.

<h2><strong>First Team To Score </strong></h2><p>The reason for this bet is purely mathematical. I think that whichever team gets the ball first will score first. If that’s true, then this bet comes down to the coin toss, which is a 50 percent proposition. The odds, though, offer Oklahoma at plus odds, as if it were less than 50 percent likely that Oklahoma scores first. Therefore, the value lies with Oklahoma to score first. Alabama is favored in this bet because it’s the heavy favorite to win this game — to win over four quarters. Bama will indeed win this game. But the odds don’t account for Oklahoma’s ability to score on most of its possessions. These are the two best offenses — Oklahoma ranks first and Alabama ranks second in points per game. It’s true that Alabama’s defense is strong and will be amped from the start. However, it seems certain that Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley has used the extra preparation time to scheme up some plays that will help Oklahoma get on the scoreboard early and remain competitive for as long as possible. Oklahoma, which averages nearly 50 points per game, won’t even need to do anything extraordinary to score. We just need the Sooners to have some luck on the coin toss.</p><p><strong>Free NCAAF Pick:</strong> Oklahoma</p><p><strong>Best Line Offered: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4404&amp;book=BOVADA" rel="nofollow" title="Top-Rated Sportsbook">Bovada</a></p><p> </p><h2><strong>Tua Tagovailoa Pass Completions</strong></h2><p>There are several ways in which this hits. One, Alabama has a run-first mentality. During the regular season, it ran with the 41st-highest frequency. During the last two semifinals, it took advantage of its physicality against a softer Washington team in 2016 and against Clemson in 2017. Bama boasts a trio of running backs, Damien Harris, Najee Harris, and Josh Jacobs, who can carry a heavy load against Oklahoma’s defense. The Sooners rank 45th in opposing YPC despite not facing a Big 12 opponent that ranks top-50 in rushing offense. Each back averages over five yards per carry despite playing in the SEC. Since Bama can lean on them, Tua won’t have much opportunity to complete 19 passes.</p><p>Second, Tua doesn’t play four quarters. Despite having the 17th-hardest schedule per S&amp;P+, Tua saw fourth-quarter action only twice, against Auburn and Georgia. If Bama accrues a large enough lead, Tua may get benched. Alternatively, Alabama could lean even more heavily on its running back trio. A blowout is possible. Bama has the second-most explosive offense based on IsoPPP+ and can put up points in a hurry. It’s stacked with big-play wide receivers. Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle, for example, each have caught a pass for over 80 yards. Tua also consistently achieves quick strikes. He averages 11.4 yards per pass attempt, which leads every other SEC quarterback by at least two yards. On the flip side, Oklahoma’s defense ranks 95th in opposing passing yards allowed per completion. Tua can help this prop bet hit with big passing plays, which keep him from completing too many passes because he helps Bama score quickly and because he helps Bama accrue a large enough lead.</p><p>Thirdly, Tua gets injured. Oklahoma will likely try to blitz Tua because creating chaos is its only hope of limiting Alabama’s offense. If it can get to Tua, it doesn’t take much to knock Tua out of the game. OU doesn’t even have to sack Tua. A late hit, for example, suffices. Tua’s ankle may be 100 percent by game-time in the sense that he can do everything he wants to do with it. But a hit could easily give Tua renewed ankle issues. Jalen Hurts showed in the SEC title game that he is more than capable of leading Bama to victory in big games. Whether Tua gets hurt or Bama achieves a large enough lead, Hurts could see action. As long as Hurts is out there, Tua can’t complete passes.</p><p><strong>Free NCAAF Pick: </strong>Under 18.5</p><p><strong>Best Line Offered:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4395&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" title="Top-Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a></p><p>[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/iCM1hiPSAXM", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]</p><h2><strong>Jerry Jeudy Scores A Touchdown</strong></h2><p>If the chalk bothers you, just wager a little less. The 2018 Biletnikoff Award winner for best wide receiver, Jerry Jeudy leads Bama pass-catchers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, with 12. He is Tua’s go-to-guy overall and in the end zone, which Oklahoma knows. But Oklahoma is helpless with its low-ranked pass defense and three starting defensive backs who might might miss this game to injury. Oklahoma has repeatedly struggled against leading receivers. Texas’ Lil’ Jordan Humphrey accrued at least seven receptions and a touchdown in both games against OU. West Virginia’s David Sills and Oklahoma State’s Tylan Wallace both caught two touchdowns against OU. The list continues. In a high-scoring game, Jeudy will be a big part of the action. He’s an athletic monster with breakaway speed and burst after the catch with which he can reach the end zone from anywhere on the field. He also has nice length at 6“1 and the ability to go up for and adjust to balls in the air.</p><p><strong>Free NCAAF Pick:</strong> Yes</p><p><strong>Best Line Offered:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4395&amp;book=5dimes" title="Top-Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a></p>
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