One More for the Coach: Take LSU & 'Under' as Your College Football Pick Against A&M

Darin Zank

Friday, November 27, 2015 5:19 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 27, 2015 5:19 PM UTC

LSU owns the recently formed rivalry with Texas A&M, going 4-0 both straight up and aganst the college football odds over the last four meetings. Can the Tigers extend that run to five?

Betting Odds
Most of this week's college football odds market opened LSU at -5.5 for this game, with a total of right around 52. As of Friday morning the spread was holding steady, but the total jumped to 55.

Those who think Texas A&M might win this game outright could get a moneyline price of +190 at GTBets.


The Situation
Neither of these teams can win a division title, and both are already going to bowls, heading into this regular-season finale. So this one's for pride, more or less.

Texas A&M (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) brings a two-game winning streak into this week, after blanking Vandy in Nashville last week 25-0, the program's first shutout in over a decade. And it probably should have been worse. The Aggies outgained the Commodores 486-148 but only scored one touchdown, instead getting six field goals from kicker Taylor Bertolet, including a couple of very short ones. But they still covered at -4 on the road.

Two weeks ago A&M beat Western Carolina 41-17, pulling away in the second half, but coming up short of the cash at -34.

The Aggies have lost three games this season, to Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn.

LSU (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) once had hopes of winning the SEC this season, and playing for the national championship. Now, following three straight bad losses, the Tigers might be playing out the string on the Les Miles era. The downfall began with that 30-16 loss to Alabama three weeks ago, spilled over into that 31-14 home loss to Arkansas and continued last week with a 38-17 defeat at Ole Miss.

Louisiana State fell down to the Rebs 24-0, rallied to within 24-17, but ran out of gas. On the night the Tigers actually outgained Ole Miss 508-432, but most of their yardage came in catch-up mode. And they lost the turnover battle 3-1.

Two weeks ago LSU got outgained by over 100 yards by Arkansas, and just before that the Tide outgained the Tigers by 250 yards.


Recent History
LSU has beaten A&M each of the last four seasons, covering each time, too. Last year, also in the regular-season finale, the Tigers outgained the Aggies 491-228 and held the ball for over 41 minutes on their way to a 23-17 victory in College Station, covering as three-point road favorites.

Two years ago LSU won this match-up 34-10, covering at -4; three years ago the Tigers won 24-19, also covering at -4; and four years ago they beat A&M 41-24, covering at -1.


Common Foes
These two teams have played six common opponents this season; Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and South Carolina. Both teams are 3-3 SU, 2-4 against those six foes. Both teams beat the Bulldogs and Gamecocks, and both lost to the Tide and the Rebels. The discrepancies came in that LSU beat Auburn but lost to the Hogs, while A&M beat Arkansas but lost to the other Tigers.

However, Louisiana State, on the whole, outgained those six foes by about 40 yards per game, while the Aggies got outgained by about 50 YPG.


Totals Trends
A&M is 7-4 on the UNDERS this season, as Aggies gave have averaged 52 points.

LSU is 6-4 on the OVERS, as Tigers games have averaged 57 points.


Final Analysis
Supposedly Miles is on his way out at LSU, but who the hell do they think they'll get to replace him? The guy has only been great, keeping the Tigers in the national championship conversation for about 10 years now. He's also a master motivator, and really one of this handicapper's favorite coaches to bet on. So while his team has struggled recently, we'll bet Les one last time here, and then probably bet on him at his next job, too. Let's make our college football pick now.

Also, the total on this game jumped three points in the early betting, and we like betting against moves like that, wherever we may find them.

College Football Picks: LSU -5.5 & UNDER 55 at Bet365

comment here