No. 12 Ole Miss is fighting for its College Football Playoff life as it travels to face No. 25 Mississippi State. We break down the Ole Miss versus Mississippi matchup with our top college football picks.
The 2021 Egg Bowl has two fantastic offenses ready to put on a show. The 9-2 Ole Miss Rebels are hoping their college football playoff hopes aren’t yet over, but all they can control is what happens this week. Their 6-4-1 ATS record and run of six consecutive unders despite their offensive reputation make them a unique investment.
Meanwhile, Mike Leach’s Mississippi State Bulldogs have been more successful at beating the oddsmakers. They’re 7-4 overall and ATS, and have gone over in four straight weeks. The Bulldogs have every intention of finishing their season on a high note.
Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 13 matchup between Ole Miss and Mississippi State (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Game Info
Date/Time: Thursday, Nov. 25, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field, Starkville, MS
Weather: Cloudy, 59 degrees
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Odds Analysis
This line opened with three points in the Rebels' favor, but 72% of bets have gone onto the Bulldogs and dragged the line in their favor. This massive shift may be in response to the letdown game Ole Miss had against Vanderbilt, a 31-17 win as a 35.5-point favorite, but we're smart enough to see that was predictable considering Vanderbilt was sandwiched between Texas A&M and Mississippi State on the schedule.
The total has held steady at a high 61 points. I don't love that number considering where these teams have finished all year. These big matchups generally lead to defensive struggles more often than explosive shootouts.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Picks
Ole Miss +1 (-110) ★★★
Under 61.5 (-110) ★★★★
SEE ALSO: College Football Week 13 Early Odds
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Predictions
Ole Miss +1 (-110)
This is a tough play because these teams are dangerously close. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has pulled off some great wins against quality teams but the Rebels have also flirted with disaster by finishing closely with lesser opponents. The Bulldogs are obviously a fantastic passing team, but they also have an elite run defense.
Ole Miss' defense must show up and not simply allow the Bulldogs to take advantage of its bend-don't-break style. The Rebels are more talented with QB Matt Corral and a deep bevy of playmakers, but the Bulldogs have a seamless system with slightly lesser talent. One turnover could be the difference in this one.
While I trust Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach more, Ole Miss has a Heisman contender for good reason, and Kiffin's recent run against top opponents is why he's in the running for the Miami job. The winner of this game will break the series' 5-5 tie over the last 10 meetings, which is a little extra motivation this rivalry doesn't need.
Under 61.5 (-110)
The Rebels have allowed more than 26 points just once since their 52-51 win against Arkansas on Oct. 9. This defense tightens up in the red zone and forces teams to opt for lots of small gains over chunk plays. Mississippi State will happily oblige with the Air Raid attack, but the red zone limitations of that offense give reason for pause while projecting an Over. The Bulldogs will get a ton of yards but struggle to punch it in near the goal line.
That being said, I don't see Ole Miss running up the score, either. The Bulldogs are fast and long all over their defensive unit. It'll be a challenge for Corral and company to create drives throughout the entire game.
This will be close to the total, but predictions of a 70-point game seem far too hopeful based on what these teams have accomplished against lesser opponents. I don't see a shootout despite how much fun an all-out passing performance would be to watch.
Ole Miss-Mississippi State picks made on 11/22/21 at 11:15 p.m. ET.