Oklahoma is 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS this season. The Sooners have beat up on a slew of weak opponents this season, and their big signature win came at Notre Dame, a team whose name gives them more respect than their on-field play. Oklahoma lost both games against the good teams they played this season. Not only did they lose, but they also got blown out in both games.
The Sooners lost 36-20 to Texas as 13.5-favorites in college football odds. Oklahoma was crushed worse than the 16-point loss indicates as they were out-gained by 182 yards (445-263) while losing the first down battle 24-13. The Sooners also lost 41-12 at Baylor, and once again, they were dominated. Baylor out-gained Oklahoma by 222 yards (459-237) while winning the first down battle 28-16.
There are two things that stick out in those losses. First is the fact Oklahoma simply cannot compete with the good to upper echelon teams. And second, Oklahoma’s offense is really bad, especially against a good defense. Both of those factors will be against Oklahoma in this game on Saturday.
Oklahoma State comes into this conference showdown at 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS. The Cowboys are off their upset win over Baylor, but they’ve had time to get over that game as they were off last week. Oklahoma also comes in off a bye which negates any scheduling edge the Cowboys would have had.
The Cowboys have been known for their high-scoring offense in recent years under head coach Mike Gundy. But this season has been different. Oklahoma State’s defense has been rock solid in allowing just 18.8 points per game. The Cowboys are only giving up 4.8 yards per play and 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That defense will stifle a weak Oklahoma offense that has already shown they can’t move the ball or score points against a good stop unit.
Oklahoma State’s offense plays much better at home than on the road. On their home field, the Cowboys are averaging 41.4 points and 424.8 yards of offense per game. Four of their five home wins this season have come by 14 points or more which fits well with Oklahoma’s two losses this season coming by 16 points or more.
The Cowboys’ defense has been even stronger at home as they are allowing just 13 points and 335 yards per game. They are holding opponents to just 4.5 yards per play while making them go 25.8 yards to score a single point. Oklahoma’s offense will be hard-pressed to move the ball consistently in this game, especially with their QB carousel of Blake Bell and Trevor Knight.
Oklahoma State is a significantly better team than Oklahoma despite the close win/loss records. The Cowboys have a tremendous opportunity to win their second straight home game over Oklahoma, and we certainly expect them to do it. Their last home win over the Sooners came by 34 points, and while we won’t call for that big of a margin, the Cowboys will easily win this game by double digits. Lay the points with OklahomaState in the Bedlam Series for one of our Saturday afternoon college football picks.
Play Oklahoma State (-).