The Cowboys needs a win to stay in the Big 12 Championship hunt, but can they get it against the Red Raiders? We give our best picks for this crucial Oklahoma State and Texas Tech matchup.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys lost two of the best skill players in the Big 12 from last year, but have still managed to go 9-1 so far this season. The Cowboys (8-2 against the spread) have an outside shot of making the College Football playoffs, but they’ll need other teams to lose and for them to dominate the rest of the way.
OSU’s next opponent is the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas Tech (5-4-1 ATS) has clinched a bowl bid but could boost their resume if they could upset the ninth-ranked Cowboys. To do so, they’ll have to step it up on defense and keep their offense as potent as it was earlier in the year.
Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 12 matchup between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Game Info
Date/Time: Saturday, November 20, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Weather: 56 degrees, no rain
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Odds Analysis
The spread opened with Oklahoma State as 10-point favorites. It has shifted to -10.5, with some sportsbooks even moving it to -11. However, some have the line at 9.5. Needless to say, there is no consensus this week.
There is more agreement on the point total for this game. Almost every sportsbook has the line at 56.5, which was where it opened. Despite Oklahoma State’s 3-6-1 record with over/under lines, a lot of people are favoring the Over this week.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Betting Picks
Oklahoma State -9.5 (-118) ★★
Under 56.5 (-110) ★★★★
SEE ALSO: Syracuse vs. NC State Week 12 Picks
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Betting Predictions
Oklahoma State -9.5 (-118)
I’m not a fan of the -118 odds with this spread. Picking a spread with a value worse than -110 is usually not the way to go. However, other sportsbooks have this line at -11, so you’re essentially buying a point and a half for the road team.
Oklahoma State have proven that they can score when they need to, but they prefer to slow the game down and rely on their defense. That’s why they have a better turnover margin and a superior scoring defense in this game.
The Red Raiders will need to win through the air to keep this one close, and I don’t see that happening against OSU. They have a solid passing defense that gives up just 188.2 yards per game, and they remain sound fundamentally. With Texas Tech’s previous struggles this year through the air, I don’t see them winning like that this week.
The only thing that makes me hesitant is that this is a night game at home for Texas Tech. If Oklahoma State looks ahead to their matchup against Oklahoma next week, they could be caught slipping. However, I don’t see that happening. They are the superior team.
Under 56.5 (-110)
Expect Oklahoma State to score early. Once that happens, Texas Tech will have to throw the ball more than they would like to. This is a recipe for failure for the Red Raiders, and it will likely lead to turnovers. Also, OSU will not mind running the ball in the second half. If they have a lead, they will dominate the time of possession and chew the clock.
Neither offense is specifically explosive, and the Cowboys have a great defense. They are the reason why they usually hit the Under in their games. Unless this turns into a late shootout, I have the Under hitting.
SEE ALSO: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Week 12 Picks
Oklahoma State versus Texas Tech picks made on 11/17/2021 at 6:21 p.m. ET.