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Linebacker Bryson Jackson and defensive lineman TJ Franklin of the Baylor Bears celebrate with Baylor fans after beating Iowa State.
Linebacker Bryson Jackson and defensive lineman TJ Franklin of the Baylor Bears celebrate with Baylor fans after beating Iowa State. Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images via AFP.

One of Saturday's ranked-on-ranked matchups has No. 9 Oklahoma State visiting No. 16 Baylor. Check out our top Oklahoma State-Baylor picks below.

The Cowboys are 3-0 on the season with their biggest win over the season coming by a 63-7 count against Arkansas-Pine Bluff last week. The Bears are 3-1 with their only loss coming in overtime by a 28-20 score against BYU in Week 2.

These two teams split last year's two meetings, but it was Baylor winning 21-16 in the championship game.

Check out all of our top college football Week 5 picks here.

Here are our top picks for the college football Week 5 game between Oklahoma State and Baylor (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 1, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Weather: 83 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Odds Analysis

Despite Oklahoma State’s top-10 ranking, Baylor opened as a 2.5-point favorite and has remained locked in at that number at DraftKings. The line has moved to Baylor -1.5 at FanDuel.

The total opened at 56 and has come up only slightly to 56.5 at FanDuel and 57 at DraftKings. The Over is 2-1 in Oklahoma State games and 2-2 in Baylor games this season.

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Picks

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor ATS Pick

Baylor -1.5 (-110) ★★★

The Cowboys have yet to travel outside of Stillwater this season. Baylor has held its own in road games at BYU and Iowa State, while Oklahoma State hasn’t faced opponents comparable to those teams. By the raw numbers, the Cowboys are the more explosive team, but the metrics tell a different tale.

Baylor gets the edge in defensive efficiency, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, as it ranks 39th to Oklahoma State’s 59th in FBS. But that gap isn’t the only efficiency advantage held by the Bears.

Despite the gaudy 46 points per game for Oklahoma State, it’s actually Baylor that is considered the better offense when factoring in the strength of opponent and home-field advantage.

The Bears rank 19th in offensive efficiency, per FPI, while the Cowboys check in at 29th. Baylor has been challenged this season in ways Oklahoma State hasn’t, which will give the Bears the edge at home on Saturday.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor O/U Pick

Over 56.5 (-110) ★★★★

Oklahoma State has an elite aerial offense and one of the worst passing defenses in FBS. That’s a combination for points galore against a Baylor offense that has scored 30-plus points in all but one game in 2022.

The Cowboys get it done on the arm of quarterback Spencer Sanders, as they rank ninth in FBS with 337 passing yards per game. But they also allow 323.5 passing yards to their opponents (122nd in FBS). Baylor’s Blake Shapen can take advantage of that.

Though Baylor’s defense held BYU and Iowa to a combined 50 points, I give the Cowboys' offense the edge over those groups. Oklahoma State will keep a quick pace and turn this into a shootout.

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Prop Pick

First half Over 27.5 (-110) ★★★

Oklahoma State ranks 12th in the nation in points per play at .582. The Cowboys also rank fourth in the nation in fewest seconds per play. That combination has led to fast starts, as Oklahoma State has averaged 36.6 points per first half this season.

Baylor has compiled 19.75 points per first half across four games this season, starting extremely fast when it faced lesser defenses like Texas State and Albany. Not to say that Oklahoma State is as porous as those defensive units, but the Cowboys did allow 44 points to Central Michigan.

This is an Oklahoma State passing defense that can get bested on its good days and blasted on its bad days. Shapen is an efficient passer who just tossed three touchdowns on 26 attempts at Iowa State.

When the Cowboys set the pace Saturday, Shapen will be happy to meet it in a first-half track meet. Bet this line at DraftKings (O/U 27.5) instead of FanDuel (O/U 29).

Where to Bet on Oklahoma State-Baylor Picks

Oklahoma State-Baylor picks made 9/28/2022 at 1:18 p.m. ET