Ohio State Buckeyes College Football Betting Schedule Analysis

Steve - CollegeFootballWinning.com

Wednesday, July 1, 2015 3:25 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jul. 1, 2015 3:25 PM GMT

Can the great (seriously, GREAT) Urban Meyer beat history in 2015? It is with that question in mind that we examine Ohio State’s 2015 schedule from a betting perspective:

Even casual observers of college football believe that Urban Meyer is a great coach. They probably gleaned that from three national championships at two different schools. For those of us focused on college football betting, however, we have objective measures for proving that Urban Meyer is a great (i.e. profitable) coach. We have spent a good deal of time extolling the virtues of the metric, margin-of-victory (MOV) against-the-spread (ATS).  The per-game MOV ATS for Urban Meyer as a head coach is 3.94. What that means is, throughout Coach Meyer’s 164-game head-coaching career, his teams have averaged beating the spread by 3.94 points PER GAME. Given that Meyer has coached 117 of those 164 games with high-profile, “public” teams (Florida and Ohio State), the figure of 3.94 points is absolutely remarkable. Knowing that Meyer now has three national titles under his belt, he is defending his latest one this upcoming season, and understanding that college football betting history suggests that defending national champions are not where we go to find betting value for our college football picks.

DATE

OPPONENT

LOCATION (STADIUM)

NOTES (Ohio State Under Meyer)

09/7/15

Virginia Tech

Blacksburg, VA

(Lane Stadium)

In season-openers, OSU is 2-1 against the closing spread, but 1-1-1 against the opening number.

OSU lost just one game both ATS and straight-up (SU) last season; it was to Virginia Tech at The Horseshoe. The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS when playing non-conference opponents away from the Shoe (including Bowl games). The Over is 2-1 in season-openers, and like 80% of all OSU games last season, the game versus VT went Over.

09/12/15

Hawaii

Columbus, OH

(Ohio Stadium)

While OSU has not faced Hawaii, it is a good bet that the Buckeyes will be favorites by more than four TD’s (28 points). When the Bucks are favored by more than 28 points, they are 4-5 ATS. Their record falls to just 1-5 ATS when they are (closing) favorites of at least 32 points.

The Over is 6-3 in those nine games when OSU was favored by more than 28 points, which is right around Meyer’s Totals average for all games at OSU.

09/19/15

Northern Illinois

Columbus, OH

(Ohio Stadium)

Although Meyer’s Buckeyes have not played NIU, OSU is 5-3 ATS when playing “Group of Five” conference teams.

In those games, the Totals were split, 4-4, and that 50% mark (for the Over) is well below Meyer’s Over average of 68.29% (on the closing Total) since coming to Ohio State.

9/26/15

Western Michigan

Columbus, OH

(Ohio Stadium)

In three seasons at OSU, Meyer has faced a MAC team in each. As with NIU (another MAC team) and Hawaii above, Ohio State has not played WMU. In 2014, WMU was one of the four best ATS teams, but OSU is 2-1 ATS versus the MAC. When playing MAC teams, on average, the Buckeyes are 30-point favorites and receive nearly 80% of the public betting action.

Pleasing more than 75% of the Totals bettors (on average), the Over is 3-0 when OSU plays the MAC; so keep this in mind when looking at the college football odds.

10/3/15

Indiana

Bloomington, IN

(Memorial Stadium)

OSU is 2-0-1 on the closing betting line (2-1 on the opening line) in Big Ten-openers, but the Buckeyes are 0-3 ATS versus Indiana. Against the Hoosiers, the Bucks have failed to cover the spread by an average of 14 points per game!

While the Over is 2-1 in OSU-IU games, the Totals line direction (from opening to closing) has indicated the correct side all three times.

10/10/15

Maryland

Columbus, OH

(Ohio Stadium)

Last season was OSU’s only game against Maryland. The Buckeyes closed as just six-point road favorites. Despite reverse line movement (RLM) on the spread, the Bucks crushed that closing line by 22 points.

While more than 80% of the public betting came in on the Over, the Total crept up a point (from opening to closing). Both the public and the line movement were correct as this game went Over the Total by 18 points (on the opener) and 17 points (on the closing).

10/17/15

Penn State

Columbus, OH

(Ohio Stadium)

OSU is 2-1 ATS versus Penn State. After going 2-0 ATS in Meyer’s first two seasons, including beating the closing spread by 34 points in 2013, 2014 saw more than 80% of the public betting on the Ohio State side. The Bucks failed to cover the closing spread by a full TD last season.

Betting on Totals was a different story: For the last two games, at least 80% of the public betting was on the Over, and that was the correct side, going 3-0 in this series.

10/24/15

Rutgers

Piscataway, NJ

(High Point Solutions Stadium)

As with the other Big Ten-newcomer, Maryland, OSU has played Rutgers just once- last season. Everything was “right” about last season’s game: the public betting on OSU (about 63%), the public betting on the Over (about 75%), the line direction for the spread, and the line direction for the Total. It might be worth noting here that OSU beats the spread at a greater rate when NOT in Columbus, and they do so by nearly 11 percentage points.

11/7/15

Minnesota

Columbus, OH

(Ohio Stadium)

OSU is 3-2 ATS after a bye week.

Last season was the only time Meyer’s OSU faced the Gophers, and it was in Minnesota. After 70% of the public betting came in on the OSU side, there was reverse line movement and it turned out to be correct. The Buckeyes failed to cover the 11.5-point closing spread by 4.5 points.

Interestingly enough, there was also RLM on the Total, as the Over received more than 80% of the public betting, yet the line went down 3.5 points (from opening to closing). That RLM indicated the correct side as the Under was right by a single point on the closing and 4.5 points on the opening Total.

11/14/15

Illinois

Champaign, IL

(Memorial Stadium)

OSU is 7-6 ATS in Big Ten games away from The Shoe.

In this three-games series, the Home team has beaten the spread each time and by an average of nine points per game (even though OSU got at least 70% of the public betting on their side whether playing in Columbus or Champaign).

There has been RLM on the Totals for two of the three games between these two teams, but the line movement suggested the wrong side both times. Even with an average of more than 75% of the public betting on the Over, the public and the Over have been right all three times, and by an average of more than 19 points per game!

11/21/15

Michigan State

Columbus, OH

(Ohio Stadium)

OSU is 1-2 ATS in final regular-season Home games. Against MSU, the Buckeyes are 2-1 ATS. In all three meetings, the underdog beat the spread. Under Meyer, the Bucks are 6-0 ATS as underdogs.

Public betting on the Total has been correct every time: Twice, there was a majority on the Over, and both times that was correct. Once, there was a majority on the Under, and that was correct.

11/28/15

Michigan

Ann Arbor, MI

(Michigan Stadium)

OSU is 1-2 ATS in both final regular-season games and games against That School Up North. In all three of their games against UM, the Ohio State side received at least 70% of the public betting. The direction the line took (from opening to closing) was wrong all three times.

The Over is 2-1 in this rivalry. The one time there was reverse line movement on the Total was the only time the line direction indicated the wrong side.

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