Odds & Ends in NCAAF Week 6: Texas Upsets Oklahoma Again

Sunday, October 7, 2018 12:18 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 7, 2018 12:18 PM UTC

Texas probably long-horned Oklahoma from the CFP picture with an exciting 48-45 win on Saturday, winning outright as 7-point underdogs. Let's review that game and other developments from Week 6.

Kevin's NCAAF Week 6 Picks Record: 0-3-0
NCAAF YTD Picks Record: 13-19-1

Texas Covers as Underdog for 6th Straight Time in Red River Showdown

Entering NCAAF Week 6, 14 teams in the FBS were still unbeaten (ALA, GEO, KY, LSU, CLEM, OHIO ST, OKLA, WV, ND, UCF, SO FLA, COL, NC ST and CIN) heading into play — they all played on Saturday — and Texas outscored Oklahoma 48-45 in the Red River Showdown in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, winning on a Cameron Dicker FG from 40 yards out. Texas led 45-24 early in the 4Q, but the Sooners rallied to tie it 45-45 before Dicker connected for the game-winner with 13 seconds left.

With 93 points scored, the game flew "over" the closing total (59-60) 8:39 into the 3Q in a game which saw both the then-7th-ranked Sooners (7-10-7-21) and the 19th-ranked Longhorns (10-14-21-3) score in every quarter in the famous (now) Big 12 rivalry which has seen Texas be the underdog 6 straight times, covering ATS in all six of the October meetings with long-time rival Oklahoma, winning three of those meetings outright (2018, 2015, 2013).

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GIVE US THE HAT!!! Texas #BeatOU 48-45. #HookEm #ThisIsTexas pic.twitter.com/gtGrBdLVqu

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 6, 2018
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Besides Oklahoma, No. 5 LSU was also knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten by Florida, 27-19 (LSU -1½), while a third ranked SEC side, No. 13 Kentucky, lost at Texas A&M in OT, leaving just 11 undefeated teams heading into Week 7.

In another upset from in the first (early) window of FBS and FCS games, Northwestern (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) went up to East Lansing, Michigan, and knocked off 20th-ranked Michigan State, (MSU -6½) in Big Ten action, winning outright as high as +360 underdogs in the moneyline market offshore (Pinnacle, 5Dimes) in a result sure to jettison the constantly over-ranked Spartans (3-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) from the Top 25.

In a Big 12 upset, host Iowa State humbled No. 25 Oklahoma State 48-42 (OK ST -9), winning outright as high as +335 moneyline dogs offshore (5Dimes) with the Cyclones (9-21-10-8) outscoring the Cowboys (7-14-7-14) in the first three quarters en route to a result which will surely bounce Oklahoma State and "I'm A Man! I'm 40!" from the Top 25. Motel money murder-madness, let’s change the mood from glad to sadness.

Bets You Wish You Had (The Easy Money)

Here are some of the NCAAF Week 6 games where bettors had it relatively easy:

  • GA TECH (66) went Over Total itself (56½) in 66-31 romp at LOUISVILLE on Friday

  • ALA-ARK 1Q Total (14) pushing 4:59 into game (ALA 14 ARK 0 1Q 10:01)

  • OK-TEX 1Q Total (13½) Over 4:46 into game (OK 7 TEX 7 0 1Q 10:14)

  • MIZ-SC 1Q Total (14) pushing 3:58 into game (MIZ 7 SC 7 1Q 11:02)

  • OKLA-TEX (59) game went Over 8:39 into 3Q (TEX 38 OK 24 3Q 6:21)

  • TEMPLE (-10) got out to 14-0 1Q lead, covered rest of way in 49-6 win vs. EC

  • TEXAS MONEYLINE (+260, Pinnacle) upset OKLAHOMA 48-45

  • NORTHWESTERN MONEYLINE (+360, 5Dimes) upset #20 MSU, 29-19

  • SAMFORD (66) didn’t go Over game Total (66½) in 66-21 win vs. WC

  • FLA A&M-NOR ST Under (47½) (FLA A&M 3 NOR 0 H, FLA A&M 17 NOR 0 F)

  • ETSU (-13) led 17-0 at Halftime vs Gardner Webb, cruised to a 45-0 shutout

  • ALCORN STATE (+21) upset ALA ST in 5 OTs, winning as 10/1 dogs, 28-25

  • NEW MEXICO MONEYLINE (+305, 5Dimes) upset host UNLV, 50-14

  • IOWA STATE MONEYLINE (+324, Sportsbetting.ag) upset #25 OKLAHOMA ST, 48-42

  • #4 CLEMSON (63) went Over game Total itself (60-61) in 63-3 romp vs. WAKE FOREST

  • MISS STATE MONEYLINE (+140, Intertops) upset #8 AUBURN, 23-9

  • SAN DIEGO STATE MONEYLINE (+430, YouWager) upset BOISE STATE, 19-13

  • SEMO (70) went Over game Total (56½) itself in 70-38 romp at TENNESSEE TECH

  • CENTRAL ARK (66) went Over game Total (56½) itself in 66-35 win vs. HOUSTON BAPTIST

Bets You Hope You Didn’t Have (Bad Beats and Near-Misses)
  • TROY (-17) led GA ST 37-12 in 4Q but two late TDs and a 2-pt conversion with 1:46 to go forced a a tough "push" for Trojans backers but a welcome one for the Panthers bettors on Thursday night in a 37-20 final in Sun Belt action.

  • ALABAMA (-35) backers have to be in a really foul mood for a second week in a row after the Crimson Tide led 65-24 with 1:58 to go before Arkansas went 78 yards and scored a TD on a 1-yard run and kicked the big (for bettors) XP with only :13 left to make it a 65-31 final and a 34-point win for the Crimson Tide. In Week 5, Alabama (-49) led ULL 56-0 in the 4Q before allowing two Ragin’ Cajun TDs and then intentionally running out the clock in their last drive. So, 56- and 41-point leads and nothing but bitterness and two losing tickets.

  • ALCORN STATE-ALABAMA STATE "under" bettors (46½) might not believe in anything today after their SWAC game ended 14-14, and then saw a 5-OT session to mercilessly push the game "over" with an ALA ST 28 ALCORN 25 final and 25 of the game’s points coming in OT.

  • UC DAVIS (-13½) led NO COL 49-10 in 4Q before being outscored 26-0 the rest of the way to win 49-36 but lose ATS by a half point in most sportsbooks with the Bears getting two 2-point conversions and a safety (+6) down the stretch to force some to "push" and others to either luckily win or lose the really hard way after being up 39 and +25½ to the betting number with just 9:15 to play.

  • LSU-FLORIDA "under" (43½-44) went "over" the total on a late pick-6 by the Gators to make it go from 20-19 (39 points) to 27-19 (46 points) with 1:45 left.

  • No. 12 KENTUCKY (+5½) was tied with Texas A&M in OT, and A&M looked to be setting up for a FG when the Aggies scored a rushing TD to win by 6, 20-14, with the XP that didn’t have to be kicked not even mattering in the lucky A&M cover.

Scoreless 1st Halves, 2nd Halves and Shutouts

(Defensive) Scoreless 1st Halves: Colgate (vs. Bucknell), Penn (vs. Sacred Heart), Drake (vs. Butler), Clemson (vs. Wake Forest), Jacksonville State (vs. Eastern Kentucky), UTSA (vs. Rice), UL Lafayette (vs. Texas State), Portland State (vs. Montana)

(Defensive) Scoreless 2nd Halves: Princeton (vs. Lehigh), Air Force (vs. Navy), Savannah State (vs. Charleston Southern), UAB (vs. Louisiana Tech), North Carolina A&T (vs. Delaware State), Nicholls State (vs. Northwestern State), Wofford (vs. Chattanooga), Campbell (vs. Wagner)

Shutouts: New Hampshire (vs. Holy Cross), Rhode Island (vs. Brown), Kennesaw State (vs. Presbyterian), Florida A&M (vs. Norfolk State), ETSU (vs. Gardner Webb)

Heisman Trophy Winner Futures Market Stock Report: Game Over?

Less than two months ago, you could find props odds offshore on whether Alabama would have Tua Tagovailoa or Jalen Hurts starting at QB in its opener — Tua was at -250 and Hurts at +180 — and now, odds on Tagovailoa (18 TDs, 0 INTs, 98.3 QBR #1 FBS in 2018, highest ever registered in FBS) to win the Heisman are below even money in sportsbooks online and in Las Vegas, and will probably continue to change after the Crimson Tide (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) did a rain dance on Arkansas on Saturday (ALA -35), spanking the Razorbacks 65-31 with Tagovailoa going 10/13 for 334 yards (25.7 ypc).

Early Saturday, No. 7 Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray (19/26, 304, 4 TDs, INT) and his Sooners met No. 19 Texas in the Red River Showdown (OK -7) in a series in which the Longhorns had gone 5-0 ATS the L5 heading in, and Texas got the money once again thanks to a last-second FG to make it a 48-45 win and eventual final for the Longhorns (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) who probably knocked the Sooners from the CFP picture, possibly a good thing for ...

No. 9 West Virginia and QB Will Grier, who hosted Kansas on Saturday (WV -27) in Big 12 play and along with Heisman longshot WR David Sills (66/1, Bovada), outlasted the gritty Jayhawks in Morgantown, 38-22, with Grier going 28-for-41 for 332 yards and 4 TDs with 3 INTs (and 5 sacks) against the nation’s (FBS) No. 1 turnover team, Kansas (+12). Questionable play selection and weak execution led to three first-half KU picks on forced throws to Sills in the red zone, leaving West Virginia with 0 points when at least FGs seemed guaranteed.

Ohio State and versatile QB Dwayne Haskins defeated a game Indiana side at the Horseshoe (OSU -26), 49-26, as the Buckeyes' leader went 33-for-44 for 455 yards and 6 TDs (2 INTS) as No. 3 OSU stayed in the thick of the CFP hunt and will now play three straight unranked teams (MIN, @ PUR, NEB) before closing the regular season at Michigan State, at Maryland and then at home vs. Michigan (Nov. 24) in the conference’s biggest and most iconic rivalry.

Kentucky RB Benny Snell Jr. ran the ball 13 times for only 60 yards as Texas A&M handed the Wildcats their first loss, in OT. UCF QB McKenzie Milton helped his Knights win their 18th straight game, 48-20 over SMU (UCF -25) as Milton threw for 278 yards and 2 TDs. No. 16 Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor ran for 221 yards on 25 carries — his 6th straight 100-yard rushing game — and 3 TDs in the Badgers' 41-24 win over Nebraska. Missouri QB Drew Lock was a disappointing 17-for-35 for 204 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs in the Tigers' 37-35 loss to South Carolina.

QBs Trace McSorley (Penn State) and Justin Herbert (No. 20 Oregon) had their bye weeks, while Bryce Love (ankle) sat out Stanford’s loss to Utah in Pac-12 play on Saturday night (STAN -4).

LIKELY CFP TEAMS AFTER NCAAF WEEK 6: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson

FIRST FOUR WANTING IN THE CFP: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Washington, UCF

CAN YOU HEAR ME KNOCKING? Michigan, Penn State, Texas, Wisconsin

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