Odds & Ends in NCAAF Week 5: Brice is Right as Clemson Survives

Sunday, September 30, 2018 4:37 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 30, 2018 4:37 PM UTC

Let’s take our weekly look at the things that mattered to bettors the most in NCAAF Week 5, including No. 3 Clemson seeing a third-string freshman QB come in and valiantly save the day against Syracuse.

Kevin's NCAAF Week 5 Picks Record: 2-3-0
NCAAF YTD Picks Record: 13-16-1

NCAAF Week 5: Bettors' Odds and Ends, Bad Beats, Heisman Update

NCAAF Week 5 started off with a solid upset on Friday night with Tulane beating Memphis, scoring first after a long, impressive drive and then never looking back in a breezy 40-24 win at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans in the American Athletic Conference game where the Green Wave closed as high as +510 on the moneyline (5Dimes).

One of the biggest upsets on Saturday and one with certain CFP implications almost happened when Syracuse nearly upset No. 3 Clemson in ACC play and Death Valley almost lived up to its name for the host Tigers, who saw freshly named starting QB Trevor Lawrence leave with an injury in the second quarter just days after former starter Kelly Bryant said he wanted to transfer. One minute you have two great QBs (Bryant, Lawrence) and the next, you have your CFP chances riding in the jockstrap of a freshman (Chase Brice). So you want to be a college football head coach and live large, a big house, five cars, you’re in charge?

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

That's why you play 60 minutes. #ALLIN 🐅 pic.twitter.com/D0jKsg37Gi

— Clemson Football (@ClemsonFB) September 29, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

Dabo and the Tigers somehow escaped with a 27-23 win over the Orange (+1600 moneyline, 5Dimes) to stay in the hunt. So now the questions on campus now are: 1. Is Bryant gone-gone? 2. How serious is Lawrence’s injury? 3. Can Brice possibly be our guy? And, 4. Who's “our” 4th-string QB? 5. Is Your Pie still open?

Northwestern (+540 moneyline) looked like it was going to pull off a big Top 25 upset with the Wildcats seeing Michigan rally from 17 down for the first time in the Jim Harbaugh era to knock off a game Northwestern side, 20-17 in Evanston as Big Blue held the Wildcats scoreless in the 2nd half on the northern fringe of Chicago and came through with the late TD to break any purple hearts.

And there was another (exactly in this case) 100-point game — OHIO ST 77 ORE ST 31, HAW 59 NAVY 41, OLE MISS 76 SIU 41, TT 63 HOUSTON 49, TOL 63 NEV 44 have also hit and eclipsed to century mark — with Ohio beating Massachusetts 58-42 (OHIO -16½, 70) in a game where, of course, both the Bobcats (14-21-17-6) and Minutemen (21-7-7-7) found paydirt in every quarter at Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio.

Bets You Wish You Had (The Easy Money)

Here are some of the NCAAF Week 5 games from Thursday to Saturday where bettors ended up having an easy go of it:

  • SC STATE (+23): Scored first (TD) at 5:56 mark of 1Q (+30), covered ATS all way in 31-16 loss to N.C. A&T on Thursday night

  • TULANE moneyline (+510, 5Dimes) upset Memphis, 40-24 on Friday

  • TULANE 2nd Half moneyline (+315, 5Dimes), outscored MEMP 23-17 in 2H

  • ALABAMA 1st Half (-31; Tide led 35-0 1:08 into 2Q; ALA 49 ULL 0 Halftime)

  • UL LAFAYETTE 2nd Half moneyline (+555, Heritage); Outscored ALA 14-7

  • SYRACUSE 1st Half moneyline (+830, Heritage; SYR 16 CLEM 7 Halftime)

  • ARMY Money Line (+235, Intertops) over Buffalo, 42-13 F

  • OHIO-UMASS Over 70 (OHIO 35 UMASS 28 H, 52-35 E3, 58-42 F, 100 points)

  • GEORGIA TECH-BOWLING GREEN Over 65 (GT 49 BG 17 E3)

  • MARIST moneyline (+425, 5Dimes, Heritage) upset Dayton, 28-17

  • YALE moneyline (+225, Heritage) upset FCS #16 Maine, 35-14

  • MISSOURI STATE moneyline (+230, 5Dimes) upset FCS #9 Illinois St, 24-21

  • JAMES MADISON went Over game Total (54) itself (JM 64 RICH 10 F)

  • TENNESSEE ST (+29½) led Vandy 13-10 Half, lost 31-27 but covered whole way

  • GEORGIA STATE moneyline (+505, Pinnacle) upset UL Monroe, 46-14

  • NORFOLK STATE (54) went over Total (45) itself in 54-28 win vs. Delaware State

  • OKLAHOMA (66 points) went Over Total (65) itself in 66-33 win vs. Baylor

  • LIBERTY moneyline (+246, Pinnacle) upset host New Mexico, 52-43

  • FLORIDA moneyline (+234, JustBet) upset #23 Mississippi State, 13-6

  • TCU-IOWA STATE 1st Half Under 23½ (TCU 7 IOWA ST H; scoreless 1Q)

  • BUCKNELL moneyline (+400, 5Dimes) upset host Holy Cross, 19-16

Bets You’re Glad You Didn’t Have (Bad Beats and Near-Misses)
  • No. 1 ALABAMA (-49) crusised out to an effortless 49-0 lead at half, led 56-0 into the 4Q, before long Louisiana-Lafayette run led to a TD and suddenly, Bama was pushing, 56-7. Alabama returned the subsequent KO to midfield, got in the red zone (ULL 13), stalled and then missed a 31-yard FG. ULL then went on an 80-yard drive, scored on a TD pass to make it 56-14 with 3:58 left in the game. The Tide got the ball back, but didn’t care and ran out the clock for Bama backers. So, a chalky backdoor, push-then-lose bad beat in a game you were up 49-0 at half (laying 49) with the best team in the world with the likely Heisman winner vs. a non-conference foe, and, no soup for you? Just Rolaids®? A wise bet for Ragin’ Cajun backers who quickly grabbed 53½ at post and also who took 49.

  • WEST VIRGINIA-TEXAS TECH "under" (76 and below) bettors may need some shock therapy after the Mountaineers beat the Red Raiders 42-34 with TT scoring on a 1-yard run with just :38 left with the Clayton Hatfield XP providing the 76th point. This one opened at 77 — the highest total on the NCAAF Week 5 betting board — so maybe a couple created a "middle" chance with the total (Over 73 and up, Under 77). A 7-point 3Q after a 45-point 1H made the "under" seem possible, but these two Big 12 teams are known for scoring, scoring, scoring.

  • OREGON-CAL "under" (59, Bovada) was (pushing for some) hanging by a thread with 3:02 to go with the Ducks up 35-24 when an Oregon pick-6 made it 42-24 and an "over."

  • FCS No. 15 NICHOLLS ST (+27½) was up 50-20, getting the ball on a punt with 4:53 left when the return man fumbled, Lamar recovered, scored a TD with 2:14 left to make it a 50-27 final and a bad buzz for Colonels backers.

  • APPALACHIAN STATE-SOUTH ALABAMA finally went "over" 56 (APP ST 42 SALA 7 H) after a 3-point 3Q, sweating backers at 45-7 before the ultimate 52-7 final after a TD (and XP) by the Jaguars with 3:04 to go.

  • NEVADA (-3½) led Air Force 21-7 at half, 28-17 to start 4Q then allowed a Falcons TD but stopped 2-point conversion with 4:27 to go to make it 28-23. But after starting on their 11 two series later with just 1:12 left, the Wolf Pack had three penalties and were facing 4th-and-15 from their 6 with 17 seconds to go — so, Nevada took an intentional safety to make it a 28-25 final, with the Fly Boys covering by ½ point after going for 2 and failing and trailing ATS most of the contest in a very nasty beat you’ll be seeing SVP and his boy Stanford Steve chirping about on "SportsCenter" on ESPN on Monday night.

Scoreless 1st Halves, 2nd Halves and Shutouts in FCS-FBS Week 5

(Defensive) Scoreless 1st Halves: Alabama (vs. UL Lafayette), Yale (vs. Maine), Brown (vs. Georgetown), Drake (vs. Jacksonville), Dartmouth (vs. Penn), Norfolk State (vs. Delaware State), Georgia (vs. Tennessee), Alcorn State (vs. Southern), McNeese State (vs. Stephen F. Austin), Portland State (vs. Idaho), Boise State (vs. Wyoming), UAB (vs. Charlotte), ETSU (vs. Chattanooga), Washington (vs. BYU), USC (vs. Arizona)

(Defensive) Scoreless 2nd Halves: Miami Florida (vs. North Carolina), North Carolina A&T (vs. South Carolina State), Princeton (vs. Columbia), Rutgers (vs. Indiana), Elon (vs. New Hampshire), Charleston Southern (vs. Hampton), Texas (vs. Kansas State), Appalachian State (vs. South Alabama), Cincinnati (vs. Connecticut), Michigan (vs. Northwestern, Idaho (vs. Portland State), Alabama A&M (vs. Jackson State), Georgia State (vs. UL Monroe), Richmond (vs. James Madison), Florida (vs. Mississippi State), South Carolina (vs. Kentucky)

Shutouts: Northern Iowa (vs. Indiana State), Colgate (vs. William & Mary)

2018 Heisman Trophy Award Winner Futures Market Stock Report

After being in plus-territory in the 2018 Heisman Trophy Award winner futures betting market since opening, Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa is now priced at less than even money in sportsbooks offshore and in Las Vegas after his wonderful start (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) for the top-ranked Crimson Tide (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) who defeated UL Lafayette on Saturday, 56-14 (ALA -49, 69, BetOnline) as Tagovailoa (14 TDs, 0 INTs, 97.9 QBR #1 FBS in 2018, highest ever registered in FBS) went 8-for-8 for 128 yards and 2 TDs passing in almost now like a staring pitching role for the Tide with (relief pitcher) Jalen Hurts (4/6, 118, TD) coming in after the hosts had established an early and comfortable 28-0 lead over the Ragin’ Cajuns, his 5th appearance, meaning he can’t redshirt now. Of all the QB duos in the history of NCAAF, Tagovailoa and Hurts have to rank at or near the top despite throwing so few passes in the bigger context.

Boston College RB AJ Dillon had a nice game (28 rushes, 161 yards, 2 TDs) as his Eagles rallied for a 45-35 win over Temple in a game in which the Owls led for some time at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts on Saturday while West Virginia QB Will Grier probably improved his Heisman stock as the Mountaineers outscored Texas Tech, 42-34, going 27-for-41 for 341 yards and 3 TDs in a Big 12 showdown of Top 25 teams in Lubbock, Texas which saw West Virginia race out to a 35-10 halftime lead.

McKenzie Milton and No. 16 UCF beat Pitt, 45-14 to win for the 16th straight time with the Knights signal-caller going 18-for-34 for 328 yards and 4 TDs and rushing 10 times for 52 yards and 2 TDs in the the American-ACC clash at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando. Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray and the No. 5 Sooners topped Baylor in Big 12 play, 66-33 (OKLA -21½) with the Sooners QB going 17-for-21 for 432 yards (20.6 ypc) and 6 TDs in a game where both Oklahoma (14-14-21-17) and the Bears (6-3-14-10) scored in every quarter in Norman, Oklahoma. Murray was sat out for the first set of downs by head coach Bob Stoops — sophomore Austin Kendall got the start — because he was late for a practice. Georgia QB Jake Fromm went a milk-toast 16-for-22 for 185 yards in the No. 2 Bulldogs' 38-12 win over Tennessee (GEO -31). Missouri QB Drew Lock and Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor both had byes.

In the high-profile Big Ten QB battle between Penn State’s Trace McSorley and Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins at Happy Valley on Saturday night (OSU -3½), with the hosts somehow disappointing the home faithful on White Out Night in State College, losing 27-26 as senior McSorley — who suffered his first home loss — finished with an amazing 25 rushes for 157 yards and went 16-for-32 for 286 yards and 2 TDs throwing the pigskin, while Haskins was 22-for-39 for 270 yards with a 3 TDs and an INT in the loss that may have jettisoned the Nittany Lions from the CFP picture, although it’s still only September, if not for another split-second or two.

No Penn State QB in the modern era has rushed for more yards than the stoked McSorley (6-0, 201) did in his school’s biggest game of the regular season on Saturday night. And although 6-foot is perceived as short in the pros, NFL scouts, take note.

Against Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana, Bryce Love and No. 7 Stanford lost 38-17 (ND -4½) with the RB having 17 carries for 73 yards and a TD in the much-anticipated matchup that ended up being a blessing for Touchdown Jesús. And, QB Justin Herbert and his No. 20 Ducks quacked No. 23 Cal, 42-24 in Pac-12 play late Saturday, going a tidy 16-for-22 for 225 yards and 2 TDs in the crucial win in Berkeley, California.

LIKELY CFP TEAMS AFTER NCAAF WEEK 5: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson
FIRST FOUR LOOKING IN THE CFP? LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, West Virginia
CAN YOU HEAR ME KNOCKING? Auburn, Washington, Central Florida, Michigan

comment here