Odds & Ends in NCAAF Week 4: ODU Upsets Va. Tech as Massive Dog

Sunday, September 23, 2018 5:08 AM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 23, 2018 5:08 AM UTC

Surprises in Week 4 of the college football season included a 29-point FCS underdog beating a Power 5 FBS school for the first time in 10 tries. Let's review the weekend action from a betting perspective.

<p dir="ltr" style="text-align:right"><strong><em>NCAAF Capper Week 4 Picks Record: 1-6-1</em></strong><br /><strong><em>NCAAF YTD Picks Record: 11-13-1</em></strong></p><p dir="ltr">NCAAF Week 4 was played on the first official day of fall (Sept. 22), and as it always seems to be, there were a handful of upsets with FCS side Old Dominion<a href="https://classic.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/virginia-tech-hokies-vs-old-dominion-monarchs-3449214/"> knocking off No. 13 Virginia Tech</a> 49-35 in Norfolk, Virginia on Saturday, stunning the Hokies and winning outright <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/" title="Live NCAAF Odds">as high as 29-point underdogs</a> in a game that could be found as high as +3200 (32/1) in the moneyline market offshore at <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4406&amp;book=Heritage" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Heritage</a>.</p><p dir="ltr">The Monarchs came in 0-3 SU on the season and behind QB Blake LaRussa (30/49, 495 passing yards, 4 TDs), pulled off the school’s biggest win ever and beat ranked and previously unbeaten VT (2-1 SU/ATS), in its first visit to Norfolk as Hokies starting QB Josh Jackson (leg) was injured in the second half. ODU (1-4 SU/ATS) was 0-9 vs Power 5 teams heading in and it was the Monarchs' first ATS win of the season and VT’s first ATS loss (ODU had 1.8% chance to win, per ESPN FPI).</p><p dir="ltr"><img height="485" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/98XJwtztlhTMT5rTj3_26QxMwnz_LrB9uWSyYQD5r-j0_reBTboBZpRpM0zcyewdP63sPmROKRxv-N2iiycD0upArs7IiBZzbd1bvFUfXPYGwqd8AFS2GGWyH2dw_uzlo7qB_7RA" width="545" /></p><p dir="ltr">“This is one of the biggest moments in Hampton Road sports history, arguably the biggest moment in Old Dominion history,” an ecstatic 10th-year ODU head coach Bobby Wilder said on CBS Sports after the game.</p><p dir="ltr">Purdue (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) also pulled off an upset of a ranked team on Saturday as the Boilermakers <a href="https://classic.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/boston-college-eagles-vs-purdue-boilermakers-3448316/">toppled No. 23 Boston College</a> 30-13 at home in West Lafayette, Indiana (BC -7, 63) as QB David Blough was 21-for-28 for 296 yards and 3 TDs — Rondale Moore caught 2 of them — as Purdue finally got its first win and <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/" title="Free NCAAF Picks">likely knocked the ACC’s Eagles out of the Top 25</a>.</p><p dir="ltr"> </p><h2 dir="ltr">Bets You Wish You Had (The Easy Money)</h2><p dir="ltr">These were some of the NCAAF Week 4 games where bettors saw some fairly easy or value-laden wins:</p><ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">TOLEDO-NEVADA went "over" the 68 total 4:34 into 3Q on Toledo TD (42-31)</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">PURDUE Moneyline (+220, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4395&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a>) upset #23 Boston College, 30-13</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">MICHIGAN (56 points) went "over" game total (50½-53½) itself</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">UMASS 1st half -3 (UMASS was leading 28-0 just 6:09 into game)</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">APP ST-GARDNER WEBB total "over" (56) at halftime (APP ST 52 GW 7)</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">APPALACHIAN STATE (72) went "over" game total (56) itself in 72-7 win vs GW</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">COLGATE (-24) easy ATS cover in shutting out Lafayette, 45-0</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">NO IOWA (-34½) covered ATS in shutting out FCS Hampton, 44-0</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">NORTH TEXAS (-11) ran out to 14-0 early lead, coasted to 47-7 win vs Liberty</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">FCS OLD DOMINION (32/1, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4406&amp;book=Heritage" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Heritage</a>) upset FBS #23 VIRGINIA TECH</p> </li></ul><p dir="ltr"><img height="580" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/Dyse_ZveWPJ3pIwTBTXwK2bwAsCAl4TWGbCxuBGffS1J_x5ICS3H9gyAraxM0u6-oP_bF74iUg-_HxqIWdK5I-yZdft57E-kMz_1eyQGAVb2XCuv4VQwpm_cZheuJcEurZ414QVf" width="549" /></p><ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">CM-MAINE under 55 (0-0 E1, CM 10-0 H, 10-3 E3 17-5 F; "under" by 33 points)</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">JAMES MADISON (-29½) shut out William &amp; Mary 51-0, easily covering ATS</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">ARMY (+28½) covered ATS the entire way vs. #6 Oklahoma in a 27 -21 OT loss</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">SMU moneyline (+205, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4404&amp;book=BOVADA" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Bovada</a>) upset independent Navy, 31-30</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">TEXAS TECH moneyline (+505, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4412&amp;book=Pinnacle" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Pinnacle</a>) upset #15 OKLAHOMA STATE, 41-17</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">KENTUCKY moneyline (+318, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4395&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a>) upset #14 MISSISSIPPI STATE, 28-7</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">HOUSTON (70 points) went "over" the total (65) itself in a 70-14 win over TEXAS SOUTHERN</p> </li></ul><p dir="ltr">We had (at least) our fifth game of the season with more than 100 points in Week 4 — (OHIO ST 77 ORE ST 31, HAW 59 NAVY 41, OLE MISS 76 SIU 41, TT 63 HOU 49) — with host <a href="https://classic.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/nevada-wolf-pack-vs-toledo-rockets-3449430/">Toledo crumbling Nevada 63-44</a> (NEV -12, 69) in a game that flew "over" the total and which saw 1,339 total yards in a MWC-MAC matchup which both the Rockets (14, 21, 14, 14) and Wolf Pack (7, 17, 14, 6) scoring in every quarter, racking up 16 TDs at Toledo (5-0 SU all-time vs NEV).</p><p dir="ltr"> </p><h2 dir="ltr">Bets You’re Really Glad You Didn’t Have (Near-Misses and Bad Bats)</h2><ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">UCF-FAU 1H Under 37½ (<a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4412&amp;book=Pinnacle" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Pinnacle</a>, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4400&amp;book=BetOnline" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">BetOnline</a>): An FAU FG made it 17-14 with 1:34 to go before halftime on Friday, but the Knights went 78 yards in 63 seconds to score a TD+XP to make it 21-17 (38) with 31 seconds to play.</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">Illinois (+2500 moneyline, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4395&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a>) led #10 Penn State 24-31 in the 3Q, but a 35-0 Nittany Lions 4Q ruined any monster upset hopes by the Fighting Illini and covered ATS for PSU in a 63-24 final. The Fighting Illini were covering ATS the first 55:36 of the 60-minute Big Ten game on Friday night.<img height="496" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/ffNka0yyvSG25z5fjkwmMBtLTsCTu8t-r7T6-qv7c86SYL29TI00Y3C1fQnuq3PM4-ABzYb7e-99inVO5kVZUmJrvsL_w_RJALzvcpvvvnzueVbFs_b2ONDxclFDy0cL6psJyWT0" width="624" /></p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">NAVY-SMU Under 58: A bad beat for "under" bettors as the game went to OT (23-23) after SMU 10-7 led at halftime. It went "over" on Mustangs TD plus two-point conversion to win game 31-30 (61 points). Total opened at 67, so, a huge middle opportunity (59-60-61-62-62-64-65-66) with number being wagered down 9 points.</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">Late SYRACUSE (-31 and up) money took it hard as the Orange could never get over the hump in a 51-21 win over UConn at the Carrier Dome, although early (27½ to 29½) Syracuse money ended up winning ATS in a result that could’ve been middled (SYR -28, -29).</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">#4 Ohio State (-38) ran out to a 42-6 lead at halftime at home against Tulane in non-conference action, stalled, and then scored a late 4Q TD with 1:01 to play to get the money in a tough (but deserved) beat for Green Wave backers.</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">Leading 16-0, AUBURN 1st-half bettors (-18 -19) caught a very bad beat when Javaris Davis intercepted an Arkansas pass with :00 left, returned it 75-plus yards for a TD and an apparent 24-0 halftime lead before a very questionable penalty was called for a block in the back, taking the 6 points off the board. The Tigers still had a chance to cover ATS , but a 51-yard FG attempt failed and Auburn backers lost.</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">ARMY +3900 moneyline (<a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4406&amp;book=Heritage" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Heritage</a>) was tied late <a href="https://classic.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/army-black-knights-vs-oklahoma-sooners-3448386/">with #5 Oklahoma</a>, 21-21, and a missed Sooners FG with :02 forced OT, but Oklahoma (-11,400, Heritage) scored a TD and then held Army to luckily survive in OT, 28-21.</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">ARKANSAS (+30) was covering ATS the whole way vs. #9 Auburn until a late Anders Carlson FG from 43 yards out with 3:15 to go gave Tigers backers the ATS cover by 1 point and Razorbacks backers an ulcer (AUB 34 ARK 3 F).</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">A last-second STAN FG forced OT at 31-31 and sent STAN-OREGON total "over" (59), a bad bet for "under" bettors who minutes before looked like winners and needed a miss on the 32-yard attempt from Cardinal K Jet Toner.</p> </li></ul><p dir="ltr"> </p><h2>Scoreless First Halves, Second Halves and Shutouts in NCAAF Week 4</h2><p dir="ltr"><strong>Scoreless 1st Halves:</strong> Nebraska (vs. Michigan), Louisville (vs. Virginia), Dartmouth (vs. Holy Cross), Columbia (vs. Georgetown), Kansas State (vs. West Virginia), Kansas (vs. Baylor), Maine (vs. Central Michigan), Florida International (vs. Miami-Florida), Delaware (vs. North Dakota State), Alabama State (vs. Grambling State), Texas Southern (vs. Houston)</p><p dir="ltr"><strong>Scoreless 2nd Halves:</strong> Lehigh (vs. Pennsylvania), Austin Peay (vs. Tennessee Martin), NC Central (vs. Duke), Monmouth (vs. Princeton), North Dakota (vs. Idaho State), Tulane (vs. Ohio State), McNeese State (vs. BYU), Oklahoma (vs. Army), Bucknell (vs. Villanova), Sam Houston State (vs. Nicholls State), Troy (vs. Louisiana Monroe)</p><p dir="ltr"><strong>Shutouts: </strong>Colgate (vs. Lafayette, 45-0), Northern Iowa (vs. Hampton, 44-0), James Madison (vs. William &amp; Mary, 51-0)</p><p dir="ltr"> </p><h2 dir="ltr">Heisman Trophy Award Winner Futures Book Market Stock Report</h2><p dir="ltr">After four real weeks of play — like the futures odds with his Alabama team (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) — Crimson Tide QB Tua Tagovailoa (22/30, 387, 4 TDs, rushing TD) is making some (perception) distance between himself and the Heisman Trophy-hopeful pack, after holding off #22 Texas A&amp;M 63-14 in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, winning 45-23 (ALA -23½) <a href="https://classic.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/texas-am-aggies-vs-alabama-crimson-tide-3447699/">in Week 4 SEC play</a>, but failing to cover ATS for the first time after getting back-doored by a 4Q Aggies TD to go from 45-16 (+29) to the final of 45-23 (+22), meaning all of the Bama money was bad money, including mine.</p><p dir="ltr">On Friday night, McKenzie Milton and #16 UCF outscored rival FAU 56-36 as the versatile QB went 21/32 for 306 yards and 3 TD and also rushed for 3 TDs as his Heisman stock soared as UCF won its 16th straight game. Penn State QB Trace McSorley also did himself proud under the Friday night lights, going 12/19 for 160 yards passing and 3 TDs and rushing 15 times for 92 yards, also making one helluva tackle after his lone interception in the Nittany Lions' 63-24 win. On Saturday, Georgia RB D’Andre Swift had 71 yards on 16 carries as the Bulldogs beat host Mizzou, 42-29 (GEO -14) in a game which saw his fellow backfield mates RB Elijah Holyfield and QB Jake Fromm have better days than him while Tigers QB Drew Lock (23/48, 221 yards, 0 TDs, INT) had a rough day vs. the ferocious Dawgs defense.</p><p dir="ltr">Boston College RB AJ Dillon had just 59 yards on 19 rushes as Purdue stopped him and his Eagles (3-1 SU/ATS) in that aforementioned upset in West Lafayette, while rising star and proud papa, West Virginia QB Will Grier, led <a href="https://classic.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/kansas-state-wildcats-vs-west-virginia-mountaineers-3448861/">#12 WV past Kansas State</a> 35-6 in a Big 12 rout at Morgantown (WV -15) in a game which saw the signal caller go 25-for-35 for 356 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions. Against Tulane, Ohio State (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) sophomore QB Dwayne Haskins was 21-for-24 for 304 yards passing and 5 TDs — all in the 1st half in Columbus — in that 49-6 SU and ATS win. Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray — drafted #9 overall by the Oakland A’s in the 2018 MLB Draft — led his #5 Sooners to a 28-21 OT victory over Army and its triple-option in Norman (OKLA -28½), going 11-for-15 for 165 yards and a TD.</p><p dir="ltr">[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Halftime mood. &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoDucks?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#GoDucks&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/hkOccDPMe7\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/hkOccDPMe7&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/oregonfootball/status/1043677843010412544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;September 23, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p dir="ltr">Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor had a decent game (25 rushes, 113 yards) against Iowa in Iowa City as his #18 Badgers 28-17 escaped against the Hawkeyes (WIS -3) for the Heartland Trophy (WIS 47-43-2) in Big Ten play on Saturday night.</p><p dir="ltr">And, two Heisman candidates collided in a massive and thrilling Pac-12 showdown at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon under the primetime Saturday night lights as the #20 Ducks QB Justin Herbert (6-6, 240) and #7 Stanford and RB Bryce Love met in the Beaver State. Herbert went an efficient 26-for-327 for 346 yards and a TD while Love had 19 rushes for 89 yards and a TD for the Cardinal in Stanford’s big 38-31 OT win (STAN -3) with a real playoff-like atmosphere.</p><p dir="ltr"><strong>LIKELY CFP TEAMS AFTER NCAAF WEEK 4:</strong> Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State<br /><strong>FIRST FOUR WANTING IN CFP:</strong> Oklahoma, LSU, Penn State, West Virginia<br /><strong>NEXT FOUR KNOCKING AT CFP?</strong> Stanford, Notre Dame, Auburn, Central Florida</p>
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