Odds & Ends in NCAAF: Dogs Turn 'Home Sweet Home' Sour for Big Ten

Sunday, September 16, 2018 12:24 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 16, 2018 12:24 PM UTC

NCAAF Week 3 was ugly for some Big Ten teams as Maryland, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Northwestern were beaten by Temple, Troy, BYU and Akron, respectively -- and all on their own home fields.

NCAAF Capper Week 3 Picks Record: 3-3-1
NCAAF YTD Picks Record: 10-7-1; YTD Top Bets: 1-0-0

In the first really big upset of NCAAF Week 3, AAC member and 16-point underdog Temple (1-2 SU/ATS) knocked off host Maryland 35-14, winning outright as high as +534 (Bookmaker) moneyline underdogs. Temple scored in every quarter (7, 14, 14, 7) and led the Terrapins 21-7 at half en route to picking up their first win (SU and ATS) and handing Maryland its first loss (also SU and ATS) as RB Ryquell Armstead rushed for 118 yards.

In another disappointing result from the first (morning) window of games on Saturday, Sun Belt Conference member Troy knocked off host Nebraska 24-19 as the Trojans (2-1 SU/ATS) won outright as high as +406 in the moneyline market (Pinnacle) and as whopping point spread underdogs, closing anywhere from 9- (Bookmaker) to 13-point (Pinnacle) chalks offshore as they handed 1st-year Nebraska head coach Scott Frost (0-2 SU/ATS) a really nasty loss. So you want to be a rock superstar and live large?

Tyler Mangum, Squally Canada (11/118/2) and visiting BYU (2-1 SU/ATS) gave Jonathan Taylor (26/117, 4.5 ypc vs BYU) and Wisconsin hell in a handbasket on the last Saturday afternoon of the summer, upsetting the Badgers 24-21, who missed a last-minute FG to try to tie and force OT, putting a big blue-and-white dent in Taylor's Heisman hopes (WISC -23½), winning outright as big +1275 ML dogs (5Dimes) in the big FBS upset of the day as the independent Cougars' defense played outstanding.

And as if three upsets in the Big Ten weren’t enough, Akron (+1050 M/L, 5Dimes) beat host Northwestern 39-34 as 21-point underdog, totally embarrassing the conference with this sour cherry on top.

Bets You Wish You Had (The Easy Money)

These were some of the NCAAF Week 3 games where we saw bettors enjoy some pretty simple routes to winning:

  • GEORGIA (-34, 5Dimes) led MTSU 42-7 at Halftime (GEO -21 1st Half)

  • RUTGERS-KAN Over 44 (KAN 31 RUT 14 H; KAN (55) went Over Total (44)

  • KANSAS +1 vs RUTGERS (KAN was always covering, won 55-14)

  • SYR-FSU 1st Half Under 35½ (SYR 6 FSU 0 H; FSU outscored 46-24 1H in 2018)

  • SYRACUSE-FSU Full Game Under 69 (SYR 30 FSU 7 F)

  • SYRACUSE +3½ vs FSU (SYR was always covering ATS)

  • AUSTIN PEAY (78) went over game Total (57) in 78-40 win vs MOREHEAD STATE

  • TEMPLE Money Line +534 (Bookmaker) upset MARYLAND

  • TROY Money Line +406 (Pinnacle) upset NEBRASKA

  • HOLY CROSS Money Line +400 (5Dimes) upset YALE in OT

  • TOWSON-VILLANOVA Over 40 (TOW 35 VILL 21 at Halftime)

  • TOWSON Money Line +400 (5Dimes) upset Villanova

  • SO DAKOTA ST (90) went over game Total (71½) in 90-6 win vs ARK-PB

  • ALA-MISS 1Q Total 13½ went Over in 81 seconds (ALA 7 MISS 7 13:39)

  • ALA-MISS 1st Half Total 37 went Over in 22 mins, 42 secs (ALA 35 MISS 7 2Q)

  • VIRGINIA-OHIO Over 54½ (VA 38 OHIO 21 Halftime, 59 points)

  • HOU-TEXAS TECH 1st Half Over 35 (TT 35 HOU 28 Halftime)

  • HOU-TEXAS TECH Full Game Over 68 (91 points by end of the 3Q)

  • BYU Money Line (+1275, 5Dimes) upset #6 Wisconsin (BYU 24 WIS 21)

  • PENN STATE (63 points) went over the Pinnacle close (62½) itself

  • MISSOURI STATE Money Line +225 (5Dimes) upset Northern Arizona

  • #12 LSU Money Line +325 (5Dimes) upset #7 Auburn (LSU 22 AUB 21)

  • AKRON Money Line +1050 (5Dimes) upset Northwestern

  • WESTERN MICHIGAN (-47) shut out Delaware State 68-0

And we saw our fourth game of the season with over 100 points in Week 4 — (OHIO ST 77 ORE ST 31, HAW 59 NAVY 41, OLE MISS 76 SIU 41— with Texas Tech and Houston scoring 112 total points as the Red Raiders won 63-49 in a game which saw 1,339 total yards of offense in this defense-less American-Big 12 conference matchup as the teams racked up 15 total TDs. Four WRs had 2 TD each while Tech RB Tazhawn Henry had 4 TDs rushing.

The FBS record for total yards by two teams in a game came in 2016 when Oklahoma and Texas Tech combined for 1,708 yards — 52 yards shy of a mile — in a 66-59 Sooners win with Red Raiders (and now Chefs) QB Pat Mahomes setting the record for total offense in a game with 819 yards.

Bets You’re Glad You Didn’t Have (The Near-Misses)
  • #2 Clemson (-32) took a 24-0 lead into the 4Q vs Georgia Southern at home, but couldn’t get over the ATS hump in a 38-7 win, failing to push by 1 point. Tigers starting QB Kelly Bryant left the game injured in the 1st half.

  • A Murray State (+41) TD with less than a minute left made it a 48-10 Kentucky final at Lexington, turning a +4 into a -3 and a W into an L.

  • NM-NMS under 60 (Pinnacle) was sitting right on the number (NM 35 NMS 25) for Pinny (close) bettors when a NM Pick-6 with :27 left made it a 42-25 final.

  • Ohio State (-12½) had the ball in red zone, up 40-28 vs. TCU, and took two knees with 1:49 left in game.

Scoreless Halves, Shutouts and Postponements

Scoreless 1st Halves: Georgia Southern (vs. Clemson), FSU (vs. Syracuse), Georgia Tech (vs. Pittsburgh), Baylor (vs. Duke), North Alabama (vs. North Dakota State), New Hampshire (vs. Colorado), Miami-Ohio (vs. Minnesota), Northern Iowa (vs. Iowa), Alabama A&M (vs. Cincinnati), Prairie View A&M (vs. UNLV), Fordham (vs. Stony Brook)

Scoreless 2nd Halves: Gardner Webb (vs. Western Carolina), Brown (vs. Cal Poly), Rutgers (vs. Kansas), Kent State (vs. Penn State), MTSU (vs. Georgia), Yale (vs. Holy Cross), Valparaiso (vs. Youngstown State), Valparaiso (vs. Youngstown State), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (vs. South Dakota State), Stephen F. Austin (vs. Incarnate Word), Ole Miss (vs. Alabama), USC (vs. Texas), Butler (vs. Princeton), Lafayette (vs. Monmouth)

Shutouts: Tennessee over UTEP (24-0), Dartmouth over Georgetown (41-0), Western Michigan over Delaware State (68-0)

Postponements: #18 Central Florida at North Carolina, East Carolina at #13 Virginia Tech, Southern Miss at Appalachian State, #14 West Virginia at NC State, Marshall at South Carolina.

Heisman Trophy Award Winner Futures Market Stock Report

Three weeks in, and it still sort of feels like a three-player race between the top candidates in the futures odds market, despite the rise in popularity and the decline of the Heisman odds numbers (15/1 last week to 8/1, 5Dimes) for Ohio State sophomore QB Dwayne Haskins, who had a decent game (24/38, 308, TD, 2 INTs) as his Buckeyes held off defensive-minded TCU (2-1 SU/ATS) on Saturday in a game that probably determined the Horned Frogs' CFP fate and kept the unbeaten Buckeyes (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) up in the picture.

On Thursday night, Boston College (3-0 SU/ATS) RB AJ Dillon had a good game at Wake Forest, rushing for 185 yards and a TD on 33 carries in a 41-34 BC win and and close ATS cover (BC -6½) in ACC play. On Saturday, Penn State QB Trace McSorley had an impressive game for the No. 11 Nittany Lions (374 passing yards, 3 TDs) in a 63-10 rout of visiting Kent State (PSU -35) as freshman sensation WR KJ Hamler (6/107/2 TDs) had another big game for the hosts while RB Miles Sanders (35/209/2 TDs) did some damage of his own running the football for Penn State.

Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray led his No. 5 Sooners to a 37-27 win over host Iowa State (OKLA -17½) with Murray going 21-for-29 for 348 yards and 3 TDs and rushing 15 times for 77 yards to keep some Heisman eyes on him. Georgia RB D’Andre Swift had a day that will see his Heisman hopes dwindle after gaining just 12 yards on 4 carries — all in a row — in a 49-7 Bulldogs romp in Athens (GEO -33½), with head coach Kirby Smart pulling the star after that early drive and saying after the game he wanted to play other guys. And with rugged SEC play ahead, it’s probably wise.

Dropped out of Top 10: Anderson, OK (now 33/1 from 25/1, Tate, AZ (now 50/1 from 25/1)

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook into Week 3: Tagovailoa 5/2, Grier 6/1, Taylor 6/1, Haskins 8/1

One of the favorites now in the Heisman race, Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor (26 rushes, 117 yards), was somewhat held in check (4.5 ypc) as the No. 5 Badgers fell to BYU 24-21, while Oregon QB Justin Herbert had an average day (16/34, 309, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) against San José State as the No. 20 Ducks struggled to a 35-22 victory in Eugene (ORE -41½), leading only 21-6 at halftime in a MWC-Pac-12 mismatch.

Alabama QB and Heisman favorite Tua Tagovailoa was magnificent again, looking part-Steve Young, part-Mikhail Baryshnikov as he led the top-ranked Crimson Tide to a scary 62-7 romp over host Ole Miss in a much-anticipated SEC matchup which saw Alabama (3-0 SU/ATS) down 7-0 11 seconds in before restoring Earth to its normal axis. Tagovailoa went a compter-like 11-for-15 for 191 yards and 2 TDs in extremely limited playing time as the visitors scored in every quarter (28, 21, 10, 3), easily covered ATS (ALA -21). Alabama will hold tight to that No. 1 ranking in FBS for a record 107th straight week.

Three candidates currently in the top 11 — West Virginia QB Will Grier, UCF QB McKenzie Milton and Stanford RB Bryce Love — didn’t play in Week 3 with the game scheduled between Grier’s Mountaineers and N.C. State in Raleigh and Milton’s Knights game against North Carolina at Chapel Hill both postponed due to Hurricane Florence, while Love sat out the game vs. upstart UC Davis with an undisclosed injury sustained in Week 2, something head coach David Shaw revealed last Tuesday.

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DOWN GOES NO. 6 WISCONSIN! pic.twitter.com/Ooo2oSwR8f

— ESPN (@espn) September 15, 2018
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LIKELY CFP TEAMS AFTER NCAAF WEEK 3: Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State

LIKELY LAST FOUR OUT OF 2018-19 CFP: Oklahoma, LSU, Penn State, West Virginia

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