Odds & Ends & Bad Beats in NCAAF Week 8: Purdue Stuns Ohio State

Sunday, October 21, 2018 11:58 AM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 21, 2018 11:58 AM UTC

Three unbeaten FBS teams — Ohio State, N.C. State and Cincinnati — lost to upstart Purdue, October-tough Clemson and Temple, respectively, on a day when some OT games drove "under" bettors up a wall.

NCAAF Capper Week 7 Picks Record: 2-3-0
NCAAF YTD Picks Record: 17-23-1

NCAAF Week 8 took its toll on one very big dog as Purdue knocked off No. 2 Ohio State in Big Ten play in West Lafayette, IN (OSU -12½), opening up the CFP picture with a big upset that could ultimately leave the conference out of the championship picture as the Boilermakers' defense was outstanding in a game where you could have found the home dogs as high as +400 on the moneyline (YouWager).

Purdue got out to 14-3 lead at halftime and played just as strong in the second half to earn one of the biggest wins in school history, 49-20, outscoring the Buckeyes 35-17 in the last 30 minutes to pull off the month’s biggest upset in a game the hosts were covering the entire way and a game seemingly rooted in the spirit of Tyler Trent, whose presence seemed worth 14-22 points in the game.

No. 12 Oregon went to Pullman to face No. 25 Washington State on Saturday in Pac-12 North play (WSU -3) and the Cougars ran out to a 27-0 lead at halftime before silencing the Ducks 34-20 in a game in which the oddsmakers wisely respected Washington State, who still have No. 24 Stanford, Cal, No. 25 Colorado, Arizona and in-state rival and No. 14 Wazoo in the Apple Cup (Nov. 23) still on tap. Good luck.

Bets You Wish You Had (The Easy Money)

Here are some Week 8 games that were easy for their backers:

  • YALE (-3½) scored 4:19 into 1Q (8-0) and then covered ATS entire way vs. Penn in Ivy League play on Friday night.

  • UNLV-AIR FORCE went "over" (54) just 6:34 into 3Q on Friday in a 41-35 Falcons win in MWC action, the 5th "over" in 6 Rebels games.

  • OKLAHOMA-TCU went "over" (61) 10:28 into 3Q when OK scored a TD to make it 38-27 (65); the game was (OKLA) 28-24 at halftime and ended (OKLA) 52-27 with the Sooners scoring in every quarter (14-14-10-14) in Waco, TX.

  • PRINCETON-HARVARD "under" (60½) was almost a breeze with PRINCE up 10-7 at halftime, a scoreless 3Q followed by a 33-point 4Q for a 29-21 final.

  • VIRGINIA moneyline (+230, 5Dimes) upset host Duke 28-14 in ACC play.

  • NC CENTRAL moneyline (+295, 5Dimes) upset Norfolk State 36-6.

  • MICHIGAN-MICH ST "under" (39½) started after a long delay, saw MICH up 7-0 at halftime at East Lansing, with the #6 Wolverines winning 21-7 over #24 Sparty.

  • NC-SYRACUSE "under" (66) backers got bit by the OT bug with the score 27-27 after regulation and then seeing both the Orange and Tar Heels score in the first OT period to make it 34-34 (68) in the Carrier Dome which eventually led to a 40-37 Orange win in 2 OTs.

  • ALABAMA 1st quarter (7½) was covering 4:25 into game; Tide led 28-0 after one quarter.

  • PURDUE moneyline (+400, YouWager) upset #2 Ohio State 49-20 at home.

  • FCS side NORTHERN COLORADO moneyline (+360, 5Dimes) upset NORTHERN ARIZONA 42-14 in Big Sky play, winning outright as 12-point home underdogs.

  • FCS side SEMO moneyline (+415, Heritage) upset JAX STATE 37-14 at home, with the Redhawks winning outright as 14-point home dogs in OVC action.

  • CLEMSON (-18) led 24-0 lead at halftime vs. #16 NC State, and the #3 Tigers covered ATS the balance in pummeling the Wolfpack 41-7 in Death Valley in ACC play, knocking NC State from the ranks of the unbeaten.

  • CAL (-9) also had an easy go, getting out to a 21-0 halftime lead at Oregon State before beating the Beavers 49-7 in Corvallis in Pac-12 play.

  • MERCER-WC "over" soared past the total (67) with the Bears rolling to a 59-46 victory in FCS play in a game which saw only 7 points scored in the 1Q.

  • WILLIAM & MARY moneyline (+530, Heritage) upset FCS #20 Maine, 36-6.

  • ARKANSAS-TULSA "under" (53½) was a simple winner, with the Razorbacks up 10-0 at halftime and winning 23-0 at home in Interconference play (under by 30½ points).

  • MIZZOU-MEMPHIS flew "over" (70½) as 98 points were racked up in a 65-33 Tigers (MIZZOU -9) win at Columbia, MO in Interconference play.

  • LSU-MISSISSIPPI STATE "under" (47½); LSU led 10-3 at halftime, won 19-3 (25½ points under)

  • CONNECTICUT jumped to a 7-0 first-quartert lead vs. #21 USF (+40½), then easily covered ATS all the way in a close 38-30 loss to the Bulls (UCONN +25½)

Bets You Hope You Didn’t Have (Bad Beats, Moose, Near-Misses)
  • CINCY-TEMPLE "under" (47) bettors definitely deserved their win, with a 10-10 halftime score, sitting 13 points under the closing number after 60 minutes of play. The problem? OT made "under" backers nervous with a 17-17 deadlock, but with the Owls scoring 7 in OT and then holding, the 24-17 final still stayed "under" (41).

  • MIAMI OH-ARMY "under" (47) bettors also saw overtime ruin a great pick, with the Redhawks and Black Knights deadlocked at 21 at West Point, followed by a cruel 3-3 first OT to put the total number of points scored at 48, with Army winning on a TD in the 2nd OT after a Miami missed XP to make it a 31-30 final.

  • ILLINOIS ST (+16) got a backdoor ATS cover at NDS, trailing 28-0 in the 3Q and then scoring the L2 TDs, that last with just 3:06 left to humiliate Bison backers (28-14) who probably deserved the ATS win in FCS MVC play in Fargo, ND.

  • EAST CAROLINA (+22) backers got the worst of it when No. 10 UCF forced a fumble with the Pirates attempting a jump pass — trailing 30-10 and getting 22 — from around 2 yards out with Nate Evans returning the scoop-and-score 93 yards for a TD and the ultimate cover in 37-10 final scoreline.

Scoreless 1st Halves, 2nd Halves and Shutouts

(Defensive) Scoreless 1st Halves: Butler (vs. San Diego), South Carolina State (vs. Delaware State), Michigan (vs. Michigan State), North Carolina Central (vs. Norfolk State), Southern (vs. Texas Southern), Marshall (vs. Florida Atlantic), Tennessee State (vs. Tennessee Tech), Clemson (vs. NC State)

(Defensive) Scoreless 2nd Halves: Ohio (vs. Bowling Green) Georgetown (vs. Lehigh), Northern Arizona (vs. Northern Colorado), Wazoo (vs. Colorado), Marshall (vs. Florida Atlantic), Charleston Southern (vs. Presbyterian), UC Davis (vs. Cal-Poly)

Shutouts: Iowa (vs. Maryland), Arkansas (vs. Tulsa)

Heisman Trophy Award Winner Futures Market Stock Report

It was another workmanlike day for Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa as the sophomore went 19-for-29 for 306 yards and 4 TDs and he didn’t have to play the fourth quarter again as the Crimson Tide raced to a 28-0 first-quarter lead en route to a 58-21 pasting of Tennessee in Knoxville in SEC play. Tagovailoa has still has yet to throw an Interception and CBS analyst Gary Danielson commented on his downfield balls, astutely saying “the accuracy of the long balls is to be envious of.”

Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray also had a productive day, throwing for 214 yards (19/24) and 4 TDs against TCU in Waco in Big 12 play and rushing 9 times for 51 yards as the No. 9 Sooners improved to 6-1. Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor recorded his eighth straight 100-yard game (27 carries, 159 yards) as the Badgers rolled to a 49-20 win over Illinois. Penn State QB Trace McSorley went 19-for-36 for 220 yards and 1 Interception in the No. 18 Nittany Lions' 33-28 win against Indiana in Bloomington, IN in Big Ten play in a somewhat lackluster performance.

In Clemson’s 41-7 clobbering of N.C. State, Tigers QB Trevor Lawrence was 26-for-39 for 308 yards and a TD while RB Travis Etienne rushed 15 times for just 39 yards (2.6 ypc, long 6) but had 3 TDs in the blowout which keeps unbeaten Clemson (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) in the CFP conversation. Central Florida QB McKenzie Milton was nowhere to be found (on the playing field) when his unbeaten Golden Knights faced host East Carolina, so Darriel Mack Jr. made his first career start for the Golden Knights with UCF head coach Josh Heupel reportedly making a gametime decision not to play Milton as the team won its 20th straight game, 37-10 (UCF -21½). Milton was in full uniform and went through warmups and didn’t show signs of an injury.

Kentucky RB Benny Snell Jr. (32 rushes, 169 yards, TD) helped his No. 14 Wildcats hold off Vanderbilt 14-7 in Nashville in SEC play. QB Justin Herbert of No. 12 Oregon struggled in a 34-20 loss to No. 25 Washington State, going 25-for-44 for 270 yards and just 1 (relatively late) TD. Ohio State and versatile QB Dwayne Haskins took it on the chin with the Heisman candidate going 49-for-73 for 470 yards but hitting paydirt just twice — and suffering a late pick-6 — for all of that grass-cutting in the Hoosier State under the painful primetime Saturday lights.

West Virginia and QB Will Grier were idle. The No. 13 Mountaineers face Baylor on Thursday night (7 p.m. ET; FS1) in Week 9 Big 12 play at Mountaineeer Field (FieldTurf) in Morgantown, WV (WV 0-3 ATS L3).

Final Thoughts

LIKELY CFP TEAMS AFTER NCAAF WEEK 8: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, LSU
FIRST FOUR WANTING INTO THE CFP: Georgia, Michigan, Texas, Oklahoma
CAN YOU HEAR ME KNOCKING? Central Florida, West Virginia, Florida, Washington
‘TWAS A BAD SATURDAY FOR: Ohio State, Oregon, Cincinnati, N.C. State, Michigan State

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