Odds and Ends in NCAAF Week 7: Ranked Teams Take Big Hits

Sunday, October 14, 2018 12:21 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 14, 2018 12:21 PM UTC

Five dogs in the top nine games of ranked coaches’ poll teams won outright on Saturday, including LSU, Iowa State, Oregon Michigan State and Michigan as many CFP contenders swallowed a bitter October pill.

<p dir="ltr" style="text-align:right;"><strong><em>Kevin's NCAAF Week 7 Picks Record: 2-1-0</em></strong><br /><strong><em>Kevin's NCAAF YTD Picks Record: 15-20-1</em></strong></p><p>NCAAF Week 7 saw some very good teams -- including No. 2 Georgia, No. 8 Penn State and No. 21 Auburn -- get knocked off (at LSU, vs. Michigan State and vs. Tennessee, respectively) while No. 5 Notre Dame came back to beat Pitt in front of Touchdown Jesus in South Bend and No. 10 Central Florida rallied and survived its Sun Belt showdown at Memphis, winning 31-30 for the Knights' 19th straight win as they, along with the Fighting Irish, improved their CFP hopes despite dwelling in a non-Power Five conference.</p><p dir="ltr">Georgia (-6 -112, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4403&amp;book=Bookmaker" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Bookmaker</a>), Penn State (-13½) and Auburn (-15½ -107) were solid favorites heading into those Saturday games. With second-ranked Georgia losing, the independent <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/" title="Free NCAAF Picks">Fighting Irish are sure to slide up</a> into the top 4 this week.</p><p dir="ltr">Jonathan Taylor and No. 15 Wisconsin were in The Big House to <a href="https://classic.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/wisconsin-badgers-vs-michigan-wolverines-3448272/">face No. 12 Michigan</a> (MICH -10) in a Big Ten showdown in Ann Arbor on Saturday night in a result with more significance after the Nittany Lions lost earlier in the day and the hosts rolled to a 38-13 win to keep their increasing Blue and Maize hopes alive.</p><p dir="ltr">[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Spartans take down #8 Penn State 21-17! &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/V4MSU?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#V4MSU&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoGreen?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#GoGreen&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/TRNKqPPb1U\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/TRNKqPPb1U&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Michigan State Football (@MSU_Football) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/MSU_Football/status/1051251906113363968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 13, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p dir="ltr">No. 7 Washington also suffered a tough loss, this one in conference — the Huskies also lost to Auburn in Week 1 — as No. 17 Oregon went into Seattle and <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/" title="Live NCAAF Odds">knocked off the small-favorite</a> Huskies (WASH -3) 30-27 in OT as the teams equaled each other in scoring the first four quarters (10-7-7-0) before the Ducks won it in the first extra frame on a TD run after Washington could muster only a field goal in its possession. Like Georgia, West Virginia, Penn State, Washington and Wisconsin, the loss was probably a death blow to any national championship hopes for the Huskies, and the Pac-12 will need losses from Notre Dame, Clemson, Texas and/or UCF to have any hopes of making the Cotton or Orange bowls.</p><p dir="ltr">No. 6 West Virginia saw its CFP hopes take a big hit when host Iowa State upset the Mountaineers 30-14 at Ames on Saturday (WV -4½) in Big 12 action as the Cyclones fell behind 7-0 in the first quarter and then proceeded to outscore WV 30-7 the rest of the way.</p><p dir="ltr"><img height="143" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/u9dSJJq_NISfS6ZXGzSva07LZAgK2HxNh2OLYmGx96IUf1zbEP5_Ryj0KkBynC5y0HncCSqsO3yQkO8lGDIgH4DjRr07vH7JHTE6McNeNH85KdfZXp6eUm5x13wk2BxxBVTdUAkM" width="575" /></p><p dir="ltr"> </p><h2 dir="ltr">Bets You Wish You Had (The Easy Money)</h2><p dir="ltr">Here are some betting results from Week 7 games where bettors had it pretty easy:</p><ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">MARYLAND (-24) was "pushing" at half vs Rutgers (24-0), rolled to a 34-7 win</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">MINNESOTA (+30) trailed #3 Ohio State by 16 at the most in a 30-14 loss at the Horseshoe</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">KANSAS STATE moneyline (+271, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4403&amp;book=Bookmaker" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Bookmaker</a>) upset Oklahoma State, 31-12</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">UAB (-17) jumped out to 21-0 2Q lead, never looked back in 42-0 boiling of Rice</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">TENNESSEE moneyline (+575, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4400&amp;book=BetOnline" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">BetOnline</a>) upset host #21 Auburn, 30-24</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">MICHIGAN STATE moneyline (+430, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4406&amp;book=Heritage" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Heritage</a>) upset host #8 PSU, 21-17</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">LSU moneyline (+235, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4395&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a>) upset #2 Georgia, 36-16 at Baton Rouge</p> </li></ul><p dir="ltr"><img height="659" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/b4bDXHgf3Lp7JrI1f8uXCyXWOVr-Xz52lj9GzZ-B5ZvHHk4yz_LrS6QCfaTS-aoCPvE9XgKKzEw2Z5su0OT2XNwbZ-5MzbERJbzslLhrqtjCpmwCQCzie2lEO1jL92vuSDVyWHM1" width="469" /></p><ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">SAMFORD (73 points) went "over" the total (71) in a 73-21 win over VMI</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">ARMY (52 points) went "over" the total (51½) itself in a 52-3 win at SJS</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">FLORIDA A&amp;M (+415, Heritage) upset host North Carolina A&amp;T, 22-21</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">FORDHAM (+350, 5Dimes) upset host Lehigh, 43-12 after a 0-0 1st quarter</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">BUFFALO-AKRON "under" 55 &gt;BUF 10-6 H, 17-6 E3, 24-6 F (25 points "under")</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">VIRGINIA moneyline (+248, 5Dimes) upset #16 Miami-Florida, 16-13</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">IOWA STATE Money Line (+185, 5Dimes) upset #6 West Virginia, 30-14</p> </li></ul><ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">FCS #2 KENNESAW STATE (-38½ to -40) won at <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4404&amp;book=BOVADA" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Bovada</a>, lost everywhere else in 56-17 win over Gardner-Webb in FCS (and Big South) play in Kennesaw, GA</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">WEBER STATE-EASTERN WASHINGTON "under" 58 &gt;WEBER ST 14-0 E1, 14-3 H, 14-6 E3, 14-6 F (by 38)</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">WEBER STATE moneyline (+230, Heritage) upset Eastern Washington, 14-6</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">SOUTHERN moneyline (+630, 5Dimes) upset host Prairie View (-17), 38-0</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">LIBERTY moneyline (+360, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4412&amp;book=Pinnacle" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Pinnacle</a>) beat Troy (-12), 22-16 in Lynchburg, VA</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">NMS-UL LAFAYETTE "over" 100 points (104) and easily "over" total (66½); ULL 66 NMS 38</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">SAVANNAH ST-MORGAN ST "under" 44½ &gt;MORG ST 11-3 H, 18-11 E3, 18-11 F</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">CHATTANOOGA-WEST CAROLINA "under" 65½ &gt;CHATT 9-0 E1, 19-3 H, 26-3 E3, 26-6 F (by 33½ points)</p> </li></ul><p dir="ltr"> </p><h2 dir="ltr">Bets You Hope You Didn’t Have (Some Bad Beats and Near-Misses)</h2><ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">After scoring first against #23 South Florida on Friday, TULSA moneyline (+310, 5Dimes) led all game until the Bulls went on a 7-play, 52-yard drive with 1:03 to go to kick a 22-yard FG to win 25-24 and remain unbeaten in Tulsa.</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">UNLV (+21½ to -27½) was finally covering ATS at Utah State (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS) in MWC play, 52-28 with 2:58 to go on a 79-yard pass for a TD, and when it looked like the Aggies were going to run the clock out, backup QB Henry Colombi broke a 3rd-and-1 run from the Rebels 37 for a TD for a 59-28 (eventual final) score with just 1:55 left to keep USU perfect against the number.</p> </li></ul><p dir="ltr">[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/B1GCats?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#B1GCats&lt;/a&gt; WIN!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Drew Luckenbaugh drills the 37-yard field goal to give Northwestern the 34-31 comeback victory over Nebraska 😤 &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/yPdFdk6ldo\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/yPdFdk6ldo&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/NUFBFamily/status/1051195596135108608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 13, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><ul> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">NORTHWESTERN-NEBRASKA ("under" 59) looked good after 3Q with the Huskers up 20-14, but a 28-point 4Q took it to 62 points and "over" the total — as well as OT at 31-31 — in a game the Cats won 34-31 with an OT FG meaning ...</p> </li> <li dir="ltr"> <p dir="ltr">NEBRASKA moneyline (+155, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4404&amp;book=BOVADA" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Bovada</a>) was also a tough loss for Cornhuskers backers with the Wildcats going 99 yards with to score with 12 seconds left to force the overtime period, which cruely produced only 3 points; still-winless Nebraska (0-6) had a 98.7% win probability in the 4th quarter.</p> </li></ul><p dir="ltr"> </p><h2>Scoreless 1st Halves, 2nd Halves and Shutouts</h2><p dir="ltr"><strong>(Defensive) Scoreless 1st Halves:</strong> Georgia Southern (vs. Texas State), Maryland (vs. Rutgers), Wagner (vs. St. Francis PA), Princeton (vs. Brown), Penn (vs. Columbia), North Dakota (vs. Montana), Southern (vs. Prairie View A&amp;M), Louisiana Tech (vs. UTSA), Portland State (vs. Northern Colorado)</p><p dir="ltr"><strong>(Defensive) Scoreless 2nd Halves:</strong> Appalachian State (vs. Arkansas State), Buffalo (vs. Akron), Ohio State (vs. Minnesota), Boston College (vs. Louisville), North Carolina A&amp;T (vs. Florida A&amp;M), Central Connecticut State (vs. Bryant), Army (vs. San José State), North Texas (vs. Southern Miss), Samford (vs. VMI), Lafayette (vs. Georgetown), South Dakota State (vs. Youngstown State), Abilene Christian (vs. Nicholls State), Stony Brook (vs. New Hampshire), Baylor (vs. Texas), Towson (vs. William &amp; Mary), South Alabama (vs. Alabama State), Sam Houston St (vs. Northwestern St.), North Dakota State (vs. Western Illinois), Alabama (vs. Missouri), Iowa State (vs. West Virginia), Eastern Washington (vs. Weber State)</p><p dir="ltr"><strong>Shutouts: </strong>Colgate (vs. Cornell), James Madison (v.s Villanova), UAB (vs. Rice), Dartmouth (vs. Sacred Heart)</p><p dir="ltr"> </p><h2 dir="ltr">Heisman Trophy Winner Futures Market Stock Report</h2><p dir="ltr">It’s hard not to see Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa winning the Heisman Trophy with his mind-blowing start and statistics, and barring injury or major Crimson Tide upset, it seems the honor and trophy will be all his, even with the calendar still somewhat fresh into October. On Saturday, Tagovailoa (21 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 Sacks, hasn’t played in 4Q yet) and top-ranked Alabama <a href="https://classic.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/missouri-tigers-vs-alabama-crimson-tide-3447706/">were at Missouri </a> to face another theoretical Heisman contender in Tigers QB Drew Lock (ALA -28) in an SEC game won by Alabama 39-10 (ALA -28) as the sophomore southpaw went 12-for-22 for 265 yards and 3 TDs although he did have to have his knee examined in the medical tent during the game.</p><p dir="ltr">One guy who can maybe give Tagovailoa a run for his money is West Virginia QB Will Grier, but the Mountaineers may have to crack the CFP and get to the Cotton Bowl or Orange Bowl — the national semifinal games this season — as sheer numbers probably won’t cut it with the voters who know how surgical and near-perfect the young Hawaiian has been these first six weeks. So has a star been born? Absolutely. On Saturday, Grier and <a href="https://classic.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/west-virginia-mountaineers-vs-iowa-state-cyclones-3448794/">WV were at Iowa State</a> (WV -6½) and the Mountaineers QB went just 11-for-15 and 115 yards and a TD (INT) in the loss to the fired-up Cyclones.</p><p dir="ltr">No. 3 Ohio State and versatile QB Dwayne Haskins defeated a game Minnesota side in Columbus on Saturday, 30-14, with the Buckeyes QB going 33-for-43 for 412 yards and 3 TDs passing in a very challenging Big Ten game for the hosts that left them unbeaten and still in the CFP picture. But it was a different story for Penn State’s Trace McSorley who saw his No. 8 Nittany Lions fall 21-17 to Michigan State at Happy Valley, with the senior QB going 19-for-32 for 192 yards and a TD in the setback which will likely bounce Penn State from the CFP picture and probably spike any chances McSorley had to win the Heisman. PSU was a telling 3-for-14 on 3rd down.</p><p dir="ltr"><img height="281" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/t4nhbaavEX8cdYZAe-l453YgjAGsKKnjoTJnoHLJievrvFkzWQmGfgdcftR4On2koVuTpOrei9Conz4Ay26O1vPk1d1VP-sk-31oZf6WvC-lRafXUAj4LPnu7-oIONZ7efZNJQtw" width="624" /></p><p dir="ltr">Central Florida QB McKenzie Milton helped his Knights rally in the fourth quarter, edging host Memphis 31-30 in a Sun Belt showdown in a great result for Milton (17/29, 296 yards, TD) in the big scheme of things although the Tigers somewhat held him in check and likely decreased his shot of winning the coveted award. RB Jonathan Taylor ran for 101 yards on 17 carries — his 7th straight 100-yard rushing game — for No. 16 Wisconsin but No. 12 Michigan put a damper on his Heisman hopes as well as any Badgers national title dreams in a 38-7 humbling in Ann Arbor.</p><p dir="ltr">Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne, Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray and Kentucky RB Benny Snell Jr. had Week 7 off as the No. 4 Tigers, No. 11 Sooners and No. 18 Wildcats had byes.</p><p dir="ltr"> </p><h2 dir="ltr">Parting Thoughts</h2><p dir="ltr"><strong>LIKELY CFP TEAMS AFTER NCAAF WEEK 7:</strong> Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Notre Dame</p><p dir="ltr"><strong>FIRST FOUR WANTING IN THE CFP:</strong> Texas, Central Florida, LSU, Michigan</p><p dir="ltr"><strong>CAN YOU HEAR ME KNOCKING?</strong> Florida, Oregon, Oklahoma, Kentucky</p><p dir="ltr"><strong>‘TWAS A BAD SATURDAY FOR:</strong> Georgia, West Virginia, Washington, Penn State, Wisconsin, Miami-Florida, Auburn</p>
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