Notre Dame vs. USC Prediction & Picks: College Football Week 14
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to cement their spot in the College Football Playoff odds with a win as road favorites over the rival USC Trojans.
- Notre Dame has won nine consecutive games, eight of them by 18 or more points
- The Fighting Irish have an 85% chance of making the college football playoff
- Notre Dame leads the all-time series 51-38-5 and has won five of the last six head-to-head meetings
As part of our Week 14 college football predictions, my Notre Dame vs. USC prediction involves the unanimous line that the Fighting Irish are a 7.5-point road favorite, with the O/U at 51.5 points.
Kickoff for this game is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, airing on CBS.
Notre Dame vs. USC prediction & best bet
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: USC +7.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Jeremiyah Love Over 77.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Notre Dame vs. USC ATS prediction: Week 14
USC to cover the spread: +7.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Notre Dame has a much different prep for USC
Notre Dame has absolutely dominated its opponents since losing to Northern Illinois, winning nine straight games by an average of 32.6 points per game.
The Fighting Irish have had two of their biggest wins of the season come in the last month, beating then-ranked Navy and Army teams by 72 combined points.
But in that span, the Fighting Irish prepped for those two run-heavy service academy teams and a Florida State opponent led by Brock Glenn, who had not attempted more than 19 passes in a game before facing Notre Dame.
Besides the two service academies, the other seven opponents in Notre Dame’s nine-game winning streak have an Offensive SP+ ranking of 81 (USC is ranked 24th). And only one of those opponents (Louisville) ranks within the top 45 in the country in that metric.
USC’s volume passing attack, which has attempted 446 throws compared to 307 runs this season, will require Notre Dame to prepare much differently. This should also mean it will take time to adjust to USC’s perimeter speed early.
Notre Dame’s defensive injuries will be an issue
Notre Dame leads the nation with 26 turnovers forced and has held eight of its last nine opponents to 14 or fewer points. However, this game against an explosive USC offense is where some of the Fighting Irish’s defensive injuries can come back to bite them.
Notre Dame has been without future NFL cornerback Benjamin Morrison since the team’s Week 7 win over Stanford and has also lost defensive linemen Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traore to season-ending injuries.
This would also become a more confident play if a third defensive lineman, Howard Cross III, is again ruled out. He is week-to-week with an ankle injury (he missed last week’s game against Army).
Jayden Maiava looks like a quarterback upgrade
During USC’s second bye week of the season three weeks ago, head coach Lincoln Riley announced he was making a switch at quarterback from Miller Moss to UNLV transfer Maiava.
So far, Maiava has taken much better care of the football, posting a 4:1 TD:INT ratio in two starts, while Moss struggled with nine interceptions in nine games as a starter.
Maiava also ran for 20 yards and a touchdown in his first start against Nebraska, and he compliments an offensive line that entered last week ranked in the top 10 nationally in Offensive Line Yards and Sack Rate allowed.
Notre Dame is just 2-7 ATS in nine games as more than a touchdown favorite against USC over the last 40 years.
Thus, I am backing the Trojans +7.5 with three stars of confidence at BetMGM, one of our best sports betting apps charging the standard -110 juice to back the underdogs getting a touchdown and the hook.
Brenden Schaeffer had a different opinion earlier this week when he made his Notre Dame vs. USC early pick, though Phil Wood is backing Love in his Notre Dame vs. USC player prop bet odds and touchdown picks.
Notre Dame vs. USC best bet
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Jeremiyah Love Over 77.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Love is one of three Notre Dame players with at least 540 rushing yards this season, as fellow running back Jadarian Price and quarterback Riley Leonard often poach some of his rushing attempts.
However, Love averages a team-high 7.0 yards per carry, and he should be in line for a massive workload against the Trojans. Love touched the ball just eight times against Army as the coaching staff was cautious with him, knowing this big game was on tap.
Love still paid off his seven rushing attempts last week into 130 yards, and he now has 267 yards and four touchdowns, with touchdown runs of 76 and 68 yards over the last two games.
He should find running room against a Trojans defense that ranks better defending the pass (40th in Pass Success defense entering last week) than the run (66th in Rush Success allowed).
This is a four-star play, as Love has run for 102-plus yards in three of the last four games. The team trusts him in the biggest moments, starting with the bowl game last year when he was given 15 carries after his previous high in the regular season was eight.
Bettors can take advantage of a great number and price at bet365, as FanDuel charges -114 in juice to back Love’s Over of 82.5 rushing yards.
Notre Dame vs. USC odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Notre Dame vs. USC live odds
Notre Dame vs. USC opening odds:
- Notre Dame -7 (-110 via BetMGM)
- USC +7 (-110 via BetMGM)
Notre Dame vs. USC game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 30
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Long Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 77 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph WNW
- Favorite: Notre Dame -7.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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