Northwestern Wildcats vs. Iowa Hawkeyes College Football Picks

Northwestern Wildcats Players Arm in Arm

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, September 30, 2016 3:03 PM GMT

Each week in this space, I isolate a Big Dog of 7 or more points for my college football picks, whom I feel has the potential to win the game outright or, at the very least, take the game to the final whistle. Read more to find this week's plus money bet. 

Northwestern vs Iowa (-13)

We enter Week 5 of the 2016 CFB season with enough statistical data to feel comfortable with its relevance. If you believe that the numbers don’t lie, you will want to review this week’s Article on this site entitled  'CFB Double Rushers and the 200 Club'. It will give you a strong base for your statistical handicapping.  Remember, that value remains the name of the game. Use your AFP theory, described in an Article 2 weeks ago, to continue to search for contrary plays at best prices. For the football season on this site, selections are now 22-13 ATS (63%) with a plethora of winners for this week.

Last week’s selection in this space was the Florida Gators, a series dominator (against Tennessee), who entered last week’s contest allowing less than 5 PPG. The selection looked golden when the Gators opened up a 21-0 lead. They quite simply did not look like the same team when they allowed the Vols. 38 unanswered points. We look to bounce back from that shocking defeat with a strong double-digit dog play on the Northwestern Wildcats.  

I’m looking for a bit of complacency here from Iowa in this game. First of all, the Hawkeyes appear to be resting on their laurels of last year, when they reeled off a 12-game winning streak to start the season. True enough, they will be looking for a bit of a bounce back game, after a lethargic performance at Rutgers, in which they were outgained 386-360 in a 14-7 escape as 14 point road chalk. That came on the heels of a 23-31 loss on this field to FCS N. Dakota St. as 16 point favorite. Iowa is now 1-3 ATS for the season, having outgained only lowly Iowa St. and may be little motivated today, considering they have beaten Northwestern the last 2 seasons by 30 and 41 points. Their lack of success in this role of home chalk has provided profit on these pages as recently under 18th year HC Ferentz, the Hawkeyes are just 9-20 ATS as home chalk.  

Enter a hungry Northwestern team, who not only has double revenge for the 2 beatings of the previous seasons but is also looking to bounce back from a home loss to Nebraska.  At 1-3 SU for the season, the Wildcats need a signature win, if they are to reach Bowl eligibility this season. Remember, this is a team who went 10-3 SU last year, including 6-2 SU in Big 10 play. The Wildcats MO, under 11th year Fitzgerald, is to play them close. Thus, it is not surprising that the Northwestern road-dog log shows a profit with a 19-9 ATS mark.  

I invite you to put the College Football Odds in your favor and join me in my College Football Pick on Northwestern this afternoon.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

 

Free College Football Picks: Northwestern +13.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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