Northwestern vs. Michigan Week 8 Picks

Undefeated Michigan hosts Northwestern in a Big Ten matchup on Saturday. Don’t let the big spread scare you away from the strong betting opportunities attached to this game. Read ahead for picks and analysis.

After suffering a catastrophic blowout loss to Nebraska, Northwestern regrouped during its bye week before defeating Rutgers. Now the Wildcats will face a much tougher test after traveling to Ann Arbor to face undefeated Michigan.

Northwestern has been unkind to fans and backers alike, as the team is 2-4 ATS with an Over/Under record of 3-3. Conversely, Michigan is 5-1 ATS, and its Over/Under record is also 3-3.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 8 matchup between Northwestern and Michigan (Odds via DraftKings).

Northwestern vs. Michigan Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, October 23, 2021 at noon ET

TV: FOX

Location: Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan

Weather: Partly cloudy, around 54 degrees

Northwestern vs. Michigan Odds Analysis

After opening at most sportsbooks at about -21, a few more points have been added on for Michigan.

There's little reason to fear betting Michigan at such a high number. The Wolverines have already been favored by 16.5, 27.5, and 20 points this season, and they're 2-1 ATS when favored by double digits.

Meanwhile, the total opened at 49.5 and now sits at 51, making it nearly the highest Over/Under for any Wildcats game this season.

Northwestern vs. Michigan Betting Picks

Wolverines -23.5 at -110Over 50.5 at -110

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Northwestern vs. Michigan Betting Predictions

ATS Play (23.5)

One might be tempted to bet on Northwestern because this clash fits the profile of a classic trap game. Under that thinking, highly favored Michigan would look past an unexciting Northwestern team to focus on its big game next week against rival Michigan State, which is also undefeated.

However, there's no empirical evidence to support the Wolverines being susceptible to that. Instead, Michigan has covered the spread against the last four opponents it faced prior to playing the Spartans.

The matchups in this contest strongly favor Michigan. The Wolverines clearly love to run, as they've posted the nation’s sixth-highest run-play percentage. Blake Corum leads the way with his 6.3 yards per carry alongside Hassan Haskins and his 4.9 YPC.

Meanwhile, Northwestern's run defense is struggling after losing a ton of quality personnel during the offseason. The Wildcats rank 124th while allowing 243.6 rushing yards per game. Michigan will get an opportunity to run at will.

Failing to stop the run-heavy Wolverines offense creates new problems for the Wildcats, as their offensive shortcomings will be exposed.

The Wildcats need to run the ball to succeed. In all of the school's losses this season – during which Northwestern also failed to cover the spread – Wildcats leading running back Evan Hull was given 10 carries or fewer. During his team’s wins, Hull ran the ball over 20 times.

Michigan will score plenty because the Wildcats lack the talent to limit the Wolverine's offense, which will force Northwestern to abandon its run game.

Plus, the Wolverine's offense won't need to be perfect because of Northwestern’s notorious tendency to give big plays, like Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker’s 75-yard touchdown run.

Long scoring plays and consistent offensive success are what you want out of a heavily favored team that you’re betting will cover the spread.

Totals play (50.5)

For the Over to hit, Michigan will need to do a lot of the work.

The team has exceeded 40 points in two games this season, with those results coming against MAC schools Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. The Wolverines produced dominant rushing totals rooted in big plays during those two contests, which they can also accomplish against Northwestern’s poor defense.

Michigan should therefore be able to hit the Over all by itself, and garbage-time points from Northwestern can only help without endangering the spread.

SEE ALSO: 3 College Football Betting Trends to Monitor for Week 8