Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: Week 11
The Western Michigan Broncos will try to remain undefeated in MAC play while hosting the Northern Illinois Huskies on Wednesday at Waldo Stadium.
- Western Michigan (4-0) remains the only unblemished team in MAC play
- The previous eight meetings have been split between these two schools, though Western Michigan has taken three of the last four on its home field
- A mere three points have decided three of the last five clashes
In our Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan prediction, we know how rare it is to see a 1-3 team in league play as a 1-point road favorite over a 4-0 squad, but oddsmakers are still right with this seemingly strange line.
The game starts from Kalamazoo at 7 p.m. ET Friday on ESPN2. The below picks are part of our college football Week 11 predictions.
Best Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Northern Illinois -1 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Western Michigan ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Antario Brown Over 79.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan against the spread prediction: Week 11
Northern Illinois to cover the spread: -1 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan opening odds:
- Northern Illinois: +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Western Michigan: -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Huskies' defense leads the way
Thanks to one of the country's stingiest defences, Northern Illinois will be competitive in every MAC game. The Huskies have held six of their eight opponents to fewer than 300 total yards, ranking seventh in total defense.
Northern Illinois leads all MAC schools in seven defensive categories: total defense, rushing defense, third-down conversion percentage, passing yards allowed, scoring, first downs defense, and sacks. The Huskies are also in the top 20 of FBS schools in six defensive categories and have allowed just 13 total touchdowns.
Northern Illinois is one of three FBS teams (Tennessee and Notre Dame are the others) to hold every opponent to 25 or fewer points this season, and it should provide a massive test to a Western Michigan offense that has averaged 44.8 points per game in four MAC games.
Northern Illinois’ experience in one-score games
Western Michigan is 2-1 in one-score games this season, including winning both MAC contests decided by seven or fewer points. However, no team in the country has more experience playing one-possession games in recent memory than the Huskies.
Northern Illinois has played the most one-score games (60) since the start of the 2016 season and is 28-32 in those games. While it is just 1-4 in five such games this year, the lone win was arguably the biggest upset of the college football season (a 16-14 road win against Notre Dame).
The Huskies are also a better team than their record indicates. They lost 13-6 to Toledo two games ago as they played with redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Holst, who started in place of the injured Ethan Hampton.
In their last game, the Huskies took a one-point lead with 15 seconds to go but lost to Ball State on a last-second field goal after allowing the Cardinals to get into range in three plays.
The line jumped the fence
In this matchup of a high-powered offense versus a stingy defense, I am siding with the defense. I am not alone in this support of Northern Illinois, as the line has seen it go from 1.5-point underdogs to one-point favorites.
All of our other top sports betting sites have the Huskies at -1.5 (-105), and while the cheaper -105 price is tempting to lay the extra half-point, I am taking the best number at DraftKings.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan best bet
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Antario Brown Over 79.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Antario Brown is licking his chops to face this Broncos defense, as he torched them for 159 yards and two touchdowns in last season’s 24-0 shutout victory.
Brown became the ninth Huskies running back to rush for 3,000 yards, and he ranks ninth among active FBS running backs in career rushing yards.
Paving the way for Brown is one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country, as Northern Illinois’ five offensive linemen have combined to play in 211 games and make 155 starts. The unit is also strong at pass-blocking, allowing just 10 sacks in eight games (the fewest among MAC teams).
I was tempted to back Brown to score multiple touchdowns at FanDuel’s +130 odds, given that he has done so twice in the last five games. However, a fully healthy Ethan Hampton might be asked to pass more in the red zone.
Thus, the O/U on Brown’s rushing yards is the safer bet, as Northern Illinois will look to keep Western Michigan’s explosive offense off the field.
A $10 winning wager at FanDuel’s -114 odds would net $8.77 in profits.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan odds movement
These two teams are incredibly close, and the offerings from our best sportsbooks have reflected that throughout.
However, Northern Illinois opened as the slight underdog at even money on the moneyline before moving to -130. Meanwhile, the total has gone on a zig-zagging journey between 52.5 and 51.5, and it now mostly sits at the latter.
Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan game info
- When: Wednesday, Nov. 6
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Waldo Stadium (Kalamazoo, Mich.)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 46 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph NW
- Favorite: Northern Illinois -1.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
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