Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky Picks, Predictions Week 4 College Football: Eighth-Ranked Wildcats Seek 4-0 Start

Henry John

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 2 min 10 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Rocky Lombardi of the Northern Illinois Huskies celebrates after running for a touchdown against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Ford Field on Dec. 4, 2021 in Detroit, Michigan. — Rocky Lombardi of the Northern Illinois Huskies celebrates after running for a touchdown against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Ford Field n Detroit, Michigan. Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images via AFP.

The Kentucky Wildcats are a massive favorite over the Northern Illinois Huskies, the reigning MAC champs. The Wildcats will have to avoid looking ahead to next week’s SEC clash against Ole Miss.

The defending MAC champions are set to step up Saturday as the Huskies travel to the Bluegrass State to face the Wildcats.

Saturday’s contest marks the second straight game for Northern Illinois (2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U) against an SEC opponent. The Vanderbilt Commodores defeated the Huskies last week despite Northern Illinois leading by seven at the half. Meanwhile, Kentucky (3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U) is seeking a 4-0 season start ahead of a ranked matchup with Ole Miss next weekend.

Here are our top picks for Week 4 between Northern Illinois and Kentucky (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbooks; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky Picks

Side: Northern Illinois +26.5 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★★
Total: Under 54 (-107 via PointsBet) ★
Prop: Northern Illinois Second Half Team Total — Over 6.5 (-145 via DraftKings) ★★★

Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky ATS Pick

Northern Illinois +26.5 (-107) ★★★

It would take a lot for Northern Illinois to spring an upset. However, the Huskies do have the pieces to stay within a point spread that's nearly four-touchdowns.

NIU's key is how its defense can hold up against Kentucky’s mediocre offensive attack. The Huskies held the Commodores to just 14 first-half points before giving up three scores in the third quarter. While Huskies' defense didn’t look great in Weeks 1 and 2 either, it’s worth noting that one of those opponents (Tulsa) has one of college football's most prolific passing attacks.

Northern Illinois’ offense can help milk the clock and sustain drives. With senior quarterback Rocky Lombardi leading an experienced unit, the Huskies are more equipped than expected. Since Kentucky is on the road at Ole Miss next week, this could also be a dreaded lookahead spot for the Wildcats.

Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky O/U Pick

Under 54 (-107) ★

While Northern Illinois should put some sustained drives together, scoring points against a nasty Kentucky defense is a whole separate matter. Neither team is likely to push the tempo offensively. Without big plays, eclipsing 54 total points could be a tall order.

What’s more, neither of Kentucky’s two previous games against mid-major opponents this season have reached this number. The Wildcats-Miami (Ohio) RedHawks contest scored 50 total points, another MAC matchup.

If the Huskies’ defense shows improvement compared to its shaky first few games, it’s difficult to trust Kentucky’s offense to really run up the score.

Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky Prop Pick

Northern Illinois second half team total — Over 6.5 (-145) ★★★

The Wildcats' defense is stout, but this NIU second-half team total prop line at DraftKings is simply disrespectful. The Huskies were at least one year ahead of schedule when they captured the MAC championship last year. Head coach Thomas Hammock has 18 total starters back, including nine on offense.

Bettors shouldn't forget that Lombardi once played quarterback for Michigan State in the Big Ten. With a solid O-line and talented running back Harrison Waylee, the Huskies are more than capable of scoring a second half touchdown. If Kentucky gets a lead and lets off the gas, NIU's path to second-half points becomes much more plausible.

Where to Bet on Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky Picks

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Northern Illinois-Kentucky picks made 9/23/2022 at 2:29 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.