Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Ball State Cardinals College Football Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, October 1, 2016 1:15 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 1, 2016 1:15 PM UTC

This week we pick an under the radar game, using one of my favorite historical theories that has been the basis of a solid winning percentage in years gone by. Come right in and check our college football pick.

Northern Illinois at Ball St. (-4) 3:30 ET

We enter Week 5 of the 2016 CFB season with enough statistical data to feel comfortable with its relevance. If you believe that the numbers don’t lie, you will want to review this week’s Article on this site entitled CFB Double Rushers and the 200 Club. It will give you a strong base for your statistical handicapping. Remember, that value remains the name of the game. Use your AFP theory, described in an Article 2 weeks ago, to continue to search for contrary plays at best prices. For the football season on this site, selections are now 22-13 ATS (63%) with a plethora of winners for this week.

Ball St. is off to a 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS start under 1st year HC Mike Neu. Neu is a former QB for the Cards and was recently the QB coach for the New Orleans Saints. A closer look at the month of September log shows, however, that the victories have come against Georgia St., E. Kentucky and Florida Atl. Please don’t expect to see any of those names on this year’s list of Bowl teams. The 30-20 loss at Indiana saw coverage come about only with a 21-0 backdoor burst in the 4th quarter. Combined with the results of N. Illinois, we have seen a huge line adjustment of at least 2 TDs from where this line would have been opening week. 

Last year, N. Illinois (the now, 6 time MAC West Title holder) struggled through multiple late-season injuries in a sub-par 8-6 SU season.  This year, there have been more injuries and a brutal opening week travel schedule. They played at Wyoming opening week in a game that began at midnight ET, followed by a visit to the heat and humidity of S. Florida, before returning home to face a San Diego St. team, who had won 11 consecutive games. The ultimate letdown from that came last week in a 28-23 loss to FCS W. Illinois. It came despite outgaining the Leathernecks 552-447, including 301-132 overland.  As a result, the Huskies enter their MAC season at 0-4 SU ATS and they do so without starting QB Hare (hamstring). The question is on the heels of 7 consecutive losses… is the strong series history and conference pride enough to gain this pointspread victory at this underdog price?  

Earlier I mentioned the DIA-DIA theory of Dogs in Action-Do It Again. It refers to series dominators in the favorite role, who have now mysteriously been placed as an underdog on the betting line. In this case, N. Illinois has defeated Ball St. 7 consecutive years by margins (in reverse) of 18, 14, 21, 12, 3, 38 and 6 points. Now, that is dominance!  Yet, because of this week’s diverse results, they are now priced as an underdog in this game because of a net (-83) AFP. We will take our chances with our DIA-DIA.  

I invite you to put the College Football odds in your favor and join me in my College Football pick on N. Illinois this afternoon. Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.


Free College Football Pick: Northern Illinois +4
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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