North Texas +30 Travels to Rustin: Road Dog Value Worthy of Your College Football Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 6:37 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015 6:37 PM GMT

North Texas travels to Rustin, Louisiana for this Saturday afternoon matchup with CUSA rival LA Tech. Let's check the college football odds to come up with the winning selection for the game.

NorthTexas vs. Louisiana Tech (-30) 3:30 ET
North Texas travels to Rustin, Louisiana for this Saturday afternoon matchup with CUSA rival LA Tech. At first glance, it would appear that 1-7 SU North Texas is a towel-tosser, while 6-3 SU LA Tech, who is 4-1 SU in CUSA play (and still battling for a division crown), is the super-surger.  A closer look at the events leading up to today’s game reveal why there are reasons why you and I are the only people who will join the lone ranger in making this our contrary game of the week. Lone ranger selections for both College Football and NFL are 10-4-1 ATS in recent weeks, meaning you should pay attention to this play!

 

Betting Analysis 
Much was expected of Louisiana Tech after the Bulldogs ascended to 9-5 SU, 11-2 ATS in 2014. That included a Bowl victory vs. Big 10 rep Illinois, (35-18). It was a vast improvement over their first year under Skip Holtz, in which they went 4-8 SU, 4-7 ATS. With the addition of Florida transfer, QB Driskel, to lead the offense and the running slants of RB Dixon balancing that attack, the Bulldogs would be in good hands. Anyone who watched last Thursday night as they destroyed Rice (42-17) (outgaining the Owls 455-281), would be hard-pressed to play against them. For the season, the offense is averaging an impressive 38 PPG. In going 5-4 ATS, they have covered the number by a net of 42 points. The fly in the ointment, however, is the long history of failure of HC Holtz in this role as favorite. 

On the other sideline is a reborn North Texas team. There were signs of problems in Denton, when the reality surfaced that over 50% of the Mean Green team was non-scholarship players. Fifth year HC McCarney had become long in the tooth and lagging in his recruiting efforts.  After 4 games, the Mean Green stood 0-4 SU ATS, losing to the pointspread by 57 points. The nadir of their discontent came in that 5th game when they lost (67-7) at home to FCS school Portland St. The Mean Green players had at least achieved their goal … of getting their coach fired.  Since that time, North Texas has been reborn. With the line beaten down because of their (-115) AFP and 0-5 ATS record, the Mean Green has begun to cash tickets. Three in a row to be exact, against inflated numbers vs. Western Kentucky and Marshall, then with an outright victory as 7 point dog in a (30-23) win last week against UTSA. North Texas had long ago tossed the towel on the season with no expectations of a winning year. But, a win like that can do wonders for the failing spirit of a big underdog. Despite their recent pointspread success, no one will be interested in this 30 point dog. 

 

College Selection
They are taking 10 points more than they would have opening week against a disinterested favorite, who beat them (42-21) last season.  I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor, suit up once again this week with me and the lone ranger in cashing my college football pick on North Texas +30.

College Football Pick: North Texas +30 at TheGreek

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