There should be plenty of points in Miami on Saturday as the North Carolina Tar Heels bring their efficient offense and woeful defense to a meeting with the Hurricanes. Read on for our North Carolina-Miami picks.
North Carolina rebounded from a loss to Notre Dame on September 24 by pummelling Virginia Tech last weekend. Miami, however, has been stewing over its brutal 45-31 loss to Middle Tennessee for two weeks after sitting out on a bye last weekend. How will Miami respond against UNC’s top offense?
Here are our top picks for North Carolina-Miami (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
North Carolina vs. Miami Odds
North Carolina vs. Miami Picks
North Carolina vs. Miami ATS Pick
North Carolina +3.5 (-110) ★★★★
North Carolina has been decidedly mediocre against the spread this season at 2-2-1, but is 2-0 ATS on the road. Miami is 1-3 ATS this season, including 1-2 ATS at home. The most recent Hurricanes loss to MTSU has inspired quarterback questions and concerns over the defense.
Miami ranks 85th in total efficiency and barely inside the top 100 on the defensive side. UNC’s offense is No. 7 in the nation in offensive efficiency and should have no trouble scoring on the beleaguered Miami defense. The wrong team is favored this week, so I like both UNC +3.5 and the Heels on the moneyline (+145 at DraftKings).
North Carolina vs. Miami O/U Pick
Over 66 (-110) ★★★★
North Carolina’s seventh-ranked offensive efficiency behind breakout star quarterback Drake Maye is a big reason to like this Over. However, the Heels’ 121st-ranked defensive efficiency might be just as appealing.
Miami’s offense has been inconsistent, but it still put up 31 points on a Blue Raiders defense that ranks 47th in defensive efficiency. North Carolina’s defense is much worse than MTU's.
North Carolina vs. Miami Prop Pick
North Carolina team total Over 30.5 (-115) ★★★
Maye has led North Carolina to a 45.4 points per game this season and should be primed for another notable performance against the least-efficient defense in the ACC (outside of his own team’s defense, anyway).
Miami just surrendered 45 points to MTU, whose offense falls 43 spots behind UNC in the FPI offensive efficiency rankings.
Where to Bet on North Carolina vs. Miami Picks
North Carolina-Miami picks from 10/6/2022 at 4:56 p.m. ET.