Non-Conference Home Record Makes Wisky -24.5 the College Football Pick Over Hawaii

Ross Benjamin

Friday, September 25, 2015 4:47 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 4:47 PM GMT

We’re going to examine Saturday’s matchup between Hawaii & Wisconsin. Go inside to read our compelling betting preview that concludes with a point spread college football pick on this contest.

Rainbow Warriors Make Trek to See Cheese-Heads
Hawaii will travel across the Pacific Ocean on Saturday to take on #22 Wisconsin. The opening kickoff at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin is slated for 8:00 PM ET. According to college football betting odds at the time of this writing, Wisconsin was a 24.5 point favorite across the board, and the total ranged from 50.0 to 51.0. These schools last met on the gridiron in 2009 at Hawaii, and Wisconsin came away with a decisive 51-10 win.

 

Uninspiring Recent Hawaii Situational History
Hawaii has gone 1-19 in their last 20 road games. They’ve lost thirteen straight non-conference road games, and are 2-8 ATS in their previous ten as a non-conference away underdog of 20.0 or more. The Rainbow Warriors are also a dismal 9-29 following a win in their previous game, and that includes 0-3 SU&ATS (-33.0 PPG) when they’re an underdog of 21.0 or more.

 

Unbeatable Badgers in Non-Conference Home Games
Wisconsin enters Saturday’s game on a 34 game home winning streak against non-conference opponents. They’re also 8-2 ATS in their last ten non-conference home games as a favorite of 20.0 to 31.5. As a matter of fact, since the start of the 2004 season, Wisconsin has gone 69-7 (.908) at Camp Randall Stadium, including 45-3 SU (93.8) and 30-18 ATS (62.5%) in lined games following a win.

 

College Football Point Spread Betting Angle
Any “Power Five Conference” (Big Ten, BIG 12, PAC-=12, ACC, & SEC) team that’s a favorite of 21.5 or more, versus an opponent that’s not a “Power Five” team, resulted in the favorite going 26-6 ATS (81.2%) since 2006. The average line in those games was 28.3, and the favorite won each of those contests straight up by an average of 32.6 points.

 

Final Analysis
Since losing their season opener to Alabama, Wisconsin has dominated in wins over Troy and Miami-Ohio in their last two games. They outscored those opponents by a cumulative point total of 86-3, possessed a +4 turnover differential, and held them to a paltry 206.0 yards per game.

Hawaii has averaged just 14.0 points and only 234.5 total yards per game versus their two FBS opponents (Colorado, Ohio State) this year. The Rainbow Warriors were also a -3 turnover differential in those contests.

I hate laying this many points in any game, but it seems like the logical choice for one of my college football picks.

College Football Picks: Play on Wisconsin -24.5 over Hawaii.

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