No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs Preview


David Schwab

Friday, September 22, 2017 6:36 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 22, 2017 6:36 PM UTC

In a showdown between two nationally ranked teams in the SEC, the No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs will go on the road as five-point underdogs to face the No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs this Saturday night at Sanford Stadium. Both teams come into this 7 p.m. (ET) start on ESPN with perfect 3-0 records on the year.

No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs

Pointspread: Georgia -5

Total Line: 48.5

Mississippi State at Georgia Game Overview

Mississippi State ran its record to 3-0 both straight-up and against the spread with an unexpected 37-7 pasting of LSU in its SEC opener last week as a 7.5-point home underdog. This followed easy victories against Charleston Southern at home and Louisiana Tech on the road as a double-digit favorite in both contests. The total stayed UNDER 52.5 points in last Saturday’s victory and it has stayed UNDER in two of the Bulldogs’ first three games.

The combination of a potent ground game that is ranked 11th in the nation in average yards per game with a shutdown defense that is sixth in points allowed has the Bulldogs pointed in the right direction in their quest to regain the status as one of the top teams in the SEC. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has been effective in the passing game with 543 yards and seven touchdowns, while completing 43 of his first 70 throws. He has also been a big part of the running game with 240 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

Georgia’s run to a perfect SU start (2-1 ATS) includes a tight 20-19 victory over Notre Dame in Week 2 as a five-point road underdog. The total stayed UNDER the closing 57-point line. Last week in a 42-14 romp against Division IAA Samford, the Bulldogs failed to cover as heavy 33-point home favorites. They are now just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played at home.

This week’s matchup should be a good test for freshman quarterback Jake Fromm given the major upgrade in the defense he will face on Saturday. He has completed 59.6 percent of his first 57 attempts for 449 passing yards and five touchdowns. A healthy Nick Chubb has anchored the Bulldogs’ running game with 290 yards rushing and four touchdowns on 44 carries for an average of 6.6 yards a run.

Mississippi State at Georgia Game Betting Trends

  • The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six September games and they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 20 points. The total has gone OVER in their last four road games.
  • These Bulldogs have failed to cover in five of their last seven games at home and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in 13 of their last 16 home games.
  • Head-to-head in this SEC tilt, the home team has a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings with the total staying UNDER in three of the last four games between the two.

Mississippi State at Georgia Free NCAAF Pick

Both teams are off to solid starts, but the edge has to go towards Mississippi State coming off that big upset against LSU. These Bulldogs are a bit more balanced on offense between the pass and the run and they have a big advantage when it comes to each team’s defense. When it comes to my ‘best bet’ college football pick in this game, I will take the five points on SBR Odds current line in a game that Mississippi State has the ability to win SU.

Miss. State Bulldogs +5 (-115)Best Line Offered at BetOnline

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