No. 1 Florida State Hosts Boston College & We Pick Over 56.5

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 8:13 PM GMT

This college football betting article on the upcoming Boston College vs. Florida State comes from an experienced handicapper who has gone 30-12 ATS with his picks at SBR this season.  

Defending Champs versus Upset Minded Eagles
The #1 ranked Florida State Seminoles will play host to the Boston College Eagles on Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee with the opening kickoff slated for 3:30 PM ET. According to the college football odds at 5Dimes, the top ranked Seminoles are a 19.0 point favorite, and the posted total is 56.5. Florida State has won the last 4-meetings versus Boston College.

Are the NCAAF odds inflated for Boston College vs. Florida State? 

Road Warriors
The Boston College Eagles are 6-4 on the season, and are coming off a 38-19 home loss to Louisville last Saturday. The loss dropped the Eagles home record to a disappointing 2-3 this season. However, they’ve gone a perfect 4-0 on the road in 2014. Boston College relies heavily on a very potent rushing attack that accounts for 66.2% of their offense. They average 264-yards per game on the ground, and are getting 5.4 yards per rushing attempt. The Eagles defense has been stout against the run this season, allowing opponents just 96-yards per game on the ground. They should have success stopping the Seminoles rushing attack that averages only 112-yards per game. As a matter of fact, they have a +1.7 rush differential over the Seminoles in this matchup that normally bodes well for an underdog in College Football odds, and especially one receiving nearly 3-touchdowns.

 

Cardiac Kids
The Seminoles have now won 25-games in a row heading into their upcoming ACC tilt on Saturday. However, their perfect 10-0 mark in 2014 hasn’t lacked for drama. They needed 4th quarter comebacks this season in their wins over Clemson, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Miami. The latter two games saw them overcome 16 and 21-point early deficits. Despite their success, they’ve gone a dismal 3-7 ATS on the year. A major contributor to their non-covers, and closer than expected games, has been their lack of ball security. The Seminoles have committed 22-turnovers in 10-games this season. I’ve already alluded to their lack of a consistent running game, but the passing attack has been dynamic averaging 318-yards per contest. The Florida State defense has stepped up with crucial stops in the 4th quarter of tightly contested games, but has been far from dominating in allowing opponents 386-yards per game.

 

College Football Betting System
Any undefeated home team (Florida State) with a total of 56.5 to 63.0, coming off a conference win, has seen 54 of those 81-games (66.7%) go over the total since 1992. I’m going to being using this total as one of my College Football picks this week.

Free College Football Pick: Boston College/Florida State to go over the total of 56.5