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Graham Mertz of the Wisconsin Badgers warms up with a ball before the game against the Michigan Wolverines.
Graham Mertz of the Wisconsin Badgers warms up with a ball before the game against the Michigan Wolverines. Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images via AFP.

The Wisconsin Badgers look for a bounceback game against the New Mexico State Aggies. We're breaking down the betting angles with our New Mexico State-Wisconsin picks.

New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill is very familiar with Wisconsin and the Big Ten from his days at Minnesota. His Aggies are still in search of their first win after an 0-3 start with their losses by a combined score of 81-25.

Here are our top picks for New Mexico State-Wisconsin in Week 3 (odds via PointsBet, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook).

New Mexico State vs. Wisconsin Picks

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New Mexico State vs. Wisconsin ATS Pick

Wisconsin -37 (-107) ★★★

New Mexico State should have difficulty scoring against the country's top-projected defense, especially a mad unit coming off a surprising 17-14 loss to Washington State. The Badgers held the Cougars to 253 total yards and 2.4 yards per carry in the loss and should best those totals this week. 

New Mexico State was held to 12 and 13 points by Nevada and UTEP, respectively, and was shut out by Minnesota. The Aggies have rotated two quarterbacks and neither has a completion percentage over 48%. They've combined for a 1-6 TD-INT ratio.

Without the threat of a passing game, the Aggies should run for much fewer than their 3.6 yards per carry average against one of the best run defenses in the country.

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New Mexico State vs. Wisconsin O/U Pick

Under 46.5 (-110) ★★★

This Over/Under wager comes down to how much one thinks Wisconsin will score because New Mexico State has an implied team total of 5.5 points. We are taking the Under as we are not yet believers in Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz. 

Mertz has completed 68.1% of his passes, and running back Braelon Allen will not have a 7.0 yards per carry average for long if Mertz does not guide a consistent downfield passing attack.

We are making this wager at BetMGM, as most other sportsbooks are offering totals of 45.5 of 46.

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New Mexico State vs. Wisconsin Prop Pick

Wisconsin -7.5 first-quarter spread (-115) ★★★★

Wisconsin had 11 penalties last week, its most in four seasons. It also had two promising drives that resulted in missed field goal attempts. Against a much inferior Aggies defense, we look for the Badgers to finish drives early and often with touchdowns but then take their foot off the gas later with a critical road matchup against No. 3 Ohio State looming next week.

Where to Bet on New Mexico State vs. Wisconsin Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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New Mexico State-Wisconsin picks made 9/16/2022 at 6 a.m. ET