New Mexico and Boise State Collide After Unexplainable Defeats

New Mexico Lobos

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, September 13, 2017 7:48 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 13, 2017 7:48 PM GMT

It is the Mountain West Conference opener for New Mexico and Boise State and both probably do not mind coming in on a short week after losing games they should have won last Saturday.

The Lobos were a 7.5 point home favorite against in-state rival New Mexico State and because they committed four turnovers, they trailed the Aggies 30-5 after three quarters. New Mexico scored 23 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, but came up two digits short in 30-28 upset loss.

Boise State was cruising with 31-10 lead at Washington State, then made several unforced errors and the Cougars cashed them in the fourth quarter to send the contest to OT, where the Broncos lost 47-44 in three extras sessions.

The college football odds have Boise State as 14.5-point home favorites with a total of 58 for this ESPN encounter that goes at 8:00 Eastern. What side should you be on?

 Boise State Wins and Covers By...

The Broncos are likely to be without quarterback Brett Rypien, who suffered a head injury in last contest, but even before getting hurt, coach Bryan Harsin had lost some faith in his top signal caller and was utilizing backup Montell Cozart, who is better runner and more elusive if plays break down. It would be too bad if Rypien cannot play, because he has the arm to abuse Lobos secondary that is 122nd against the pass, allowing 337.5 yards a game. Cozart just has to be smart with the pigskin. Defensively, Boise State has the players that can get up the field in their front seven to be disruptive.

 

New Mexico Covers and Possibly Pulls Upset By...

The Lobos offense and defense for that matter have to realize when game time is after two very sluggish starts. That might mean blending in the passing game sooner with the run, just in a controlled fashion that decreases risk. Cozart is not always reliable with the ball in his decision-making and the New Mexico defense needs to place in uncomfortable positions where he could make mistakes. In addition, the Broncos typically strong running game has not emerged, averaging only 3.5 yards a carry. If New Mexico can stop the run and make Cozart a third and long passer, they could generate miscues which lead to points.

 

Outcome and What To Look For

For college football picks, Boise State is not the same money-making machine they used to be on the blue turf. The Broncos are 12-26 ATS at home since 2011 and 1-3 ATS overall in their own stadium against New Mexico. The Lobos have already lost two points from oddsmakers opening release, so as long as we are catching better than two touchdowns, Nex Mexico gets the call.

Free Football Pick: New Mexico +14.5Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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