New Blood Inspires College Football Picks 'Over 8' for Auburn

David Lawrence

Friday, July 10, 2015 6:53 PM GMT

Current odds trading for Auburn to win the SEC Football Conference are around +500 with a season win total of 8. We share our early leans with suggestions on making the most of these betting odds. 

The Auburn Tigers play in a cutthroat SEC West Division, one that is stacked with good teams and really doesn’t have a single game you could call a breather. Alabama, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU, Arkansas – maybe A&M is the one game that feels like a favorable one but that might be it and that’s not a guarantee. How will Auburn fare in this environment in regards to their college football odds?

 

Is Auburn A Good Bet To Win SEC Conference at +500?
The Tigers cannot be considered a good bet to win the conference. The Tigers just have too many questions this season, due to the fact that they have only four returning starters on offense. It is true that Auburn’s offense really wasn’t that consistent last season. The Tigers set such a high standard in the 2013 season when they advanced to the final BCS National Championship Game against Florida State, and they regressed this past season. Auburn had to throw the ball a lot more in 2014, but quarterback Nick Marshall was not a clean pocket passer. Marshall was better as a runner than a thrower, and in 2013, Auburn got better line play than it did in 2014. The one thing bettors could say if they were to bet big on Auburn succeeding this season is that since the offense didn’t put all the pieces together in 2014, the lack of a lot of returning starters could actually be a good thing – new blood could be exactly what this team needed, as opposed to being a bad thing. This line of thought has its weaknesses, but at quarterback, it might be true. Marshall veered wildly between being great and mediocre. The bigger problem is that when Auburn fell behind, defenses were better able to defend Auburn’s passing game. The Tigers could surprise teams with the pass when they didn’t expect it, but when defenses were ready for the pass, Auburn became ordinary. This year, though, Jeremy Johnson – who is universally regarded as a much better pocket passer than Marshall – could give Auburn more of a vertical passing threat. It might work out, but the running game is probably going to be a concern with the loss to the NFL of Cameron Artis-Payne, a tough running back between the tackles.

This leads to another question for the Tigers this season, and it’s kind of the reverse of what was said above, about new blood being a good thing. The Tigers return eight of 11 starters on defense. That might seem to be good, but last year’s defense was porous, especially against Georgia and Alabama in the month of November. This team lost containment and was also overpowered on defense late last year. The team couldn’t keep its assignments, but it was also physically manhandled by strong players on the other side of the ball. With eight returning players, Auburn might not have the kind of returnees it really wants. This is the in-between world in which Auburn exists, and it’s too delicate to expect a conference title.

 

Is Auburn A Good Bet To Go Over Their Regular Season Win Total
Auburn just has too many questions on both sides of the ball. Is it good or bad to have few returnees on offense and a lot on defense? We don’t know. Nine wins might be about right for this team. Even so, that’ll get you over on the regular season win totals for the college football futures.

College Football Pick: Over 8 Wins at 5Dimes