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NCAAF Week 15 Last Chance Value Picks for Saturday

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NCAAF Week 15 Last Chance Value Picks for Saturday
Malik Cunningham #3 of the Louisville Cardinals on November 14, 2020 in Charlottesville, Virginia. Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images/AFP

Every week throughout the college football season we take a late look at which lines have drifted too far and exploit those numbers. Let’s do it again with our Week 15 Last Chance Value Picks!

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, December 12, 2020 – 12:00 PM EST at Cardinal Stadium

These ACC rivals met last year when the Cardinals edged the Demon Deacons in a 62-59 shootout in which Louisville was tagged as seven-point road underdogs. Now here we are again, a year later, only this time the venue has changed from Winston-Salem to Louisville and the college football odds reflect a three-point drop from the Cardinals -4 to as low as -1 where it now stands.

The optics look good for Wake Forest as they are coming off a hard-fought loss to North Carolina but easily covered as 13-point dogs in a wild, 59-53, affair. They have also covered their last five contests and were on a four-game winning streak before the Tar Heels brought that to an end way back on November 14th.

But the Cardinals have talent on their side of the ball and will be competing against a team that has been dormant for nearly a month. Louisville has a balanced offense and an edge in the rushing department, averaging 194.6 yards per game. Don’t be surprised if Wake Forest comes out flat after their long respite which will give Louisville backers an early edge in this one at a line that looks too generous.

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Michigan State Spartans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, December 12, 2020 - 12:00 PM EST at Beaver Stadium

This is a big line for a team that sports a dismal 2-5 record against a conference rival. Granted, Michigan State is not exactly an elite team, currently sitting with a 2-4 record, and the Nittany Lions have a modest two-game winning streak entering this one. But is that really enough to justify a number that has now gone from 13 to 14 ½?

Although the spike in the line is modest, it did however pass through 14 which can be critical as it is two touchdowns plus a hook. The half-point could be important here especially considering that Penn State has recently geared its offense towards the ground and pound, chewing up the clock and keeping the opposing offense off of the field.

This bloated line also has much to do with the thrashing the Spartans received last week when they fell, 52-12, to Ohio State. But then again, the Buckeyes routinely destroy teams and I doubt Penn State would have fared much better. Let’s grab what has gone from a generous number to what I consider a gift and back Michigan State in our college football picks!

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Bo Nix #10 of the Auburn Tigers.
Bo Nix #10 of the Auburn Tigers. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP

Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, December 12, 2020 - 07:30 PM EST at Davis Wade Scott Stadium

Auburn has lost their last two games and failed to cover as 25 ½ and 5-point underdogs to Alabama and Texas A&M, respectively. On the flip side, Mississippi State has also dropped their last pair but covered as 26 ½ and 9 ½ point road dogs to Georgia and Mississippi.

So, the bottom line is both teams are losing but the Bulldogs look a lot better doing it which is partially why this number has plunged 2 ½ points and through the critical number seven. But don’t despair Auburn fans, because Mississippi State is 2-6 ATS in their last eight after an ATS win and 1-7 against the number versus a team with a winning record.

But trends don’t always tell the tale, they just give us a brief insight into it. What makes Auburn the sharp side here, besides getting them under a touchdown, is their offense versus the Bulldogs' defense. Auburn quarterback, Bo Nix, will have a much easier time of it than he has recently when he faced Bama and A&M. The Bulldogs are weak in their defensive backfield and this should allow Nix to go to work and allow the Tigers to cover the number with ease.

The oddsmakers over at Sportsbook Review are giving us a good number and we intend to take advantage of it!

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)