NCAAF Week 13 Free Picks - Friday's Best Value Betting Duo

Baylor Bears fans and cheerleaders

Joe Catalano

Thursday, November 24, 2016 11:43 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 24, 2016 11:43 PM GMT

"Black Friday" presents the biggest shopping day of the season and what a better way to go shopping with some extra loot as we provide a couple of profitable bets for you to benefit from in our NCAA Football Picks For Friday. 

Baylor Bears (6-4, 3-4) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-7, 2-6)

The Baylor Bears have a perfect opportunity to get into a desirable bowl game, but it all start's here as they play a 4-7 Texas Tech Red Raiders team in which they should beat handily. Let's find out if the Bears can seal the deal as they look towards Bowl Season.

 

All Offense, No Defense

While it's also essential that the Bears even up their BIg-12 record at 4-4, they can expect this game to be a shootout as the 86.5 points betting total ,according to 5Dimes Sportsbook, indicates. After a 6-0 start to the season, the Bears must stop the bleeding and this is the biggest game of their season.

 

Seth Russell Out For the Season

This is one of the keys in the game as the Bears starting quarterback and the entire team dealt a crushing blow as senior Seth Russell's college career is finished after he dislocated his ankle. This means that all of the pressure will be thrust upon freshman quarterback Zach Smith.

Last week, Smith played quite well, throwing for 258 yards and 3 TD's. On the negative end, he threw 3 interceptions as the Bears loss to Kansas State, 42-21. Look for Baylor to favor their running game and quite obviously, Zach Smith will need to avoid forcing the issue or this will be a long night for Baylor.

 

Keeping The Clock Running?

While Baylor will miss Seth Russell's 8 rushing touchdowns, the Bears do feature two 700 yard rushers in Shock Linwood and Terence Williams. Against Kansas State, Williams was out and Linwood rushed for 110 yards. Look for this duo to control the tempo of this offense and that mean bleed the clock. The 86.5 point total appears a bit too high for my liking and seems like a nice fade.

Where Texas Tech's record is concerned, it's a bit deceiving as they've faced some top level competition. That said, the Red Raiders have lost 3 consecutive games and come into this game with little momentum. Patrick Mahomes II production is awesome, throwing for 4466 yards with 35 TD's and 10 INT's. That said, it hasn't equated to victories. I'm going to take the under with my NCAAF picks as I look for Baylor's offense to slow down the tempo of this game.

College Football Pick: 'Under' 86.5 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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 #16 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-2, 6-2) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-4, 5-3)

Both Nebraska and Iowa have a lot to gain and a lot to lose in this Big-Ten clash. The Cornhuskers look to stay atop of the Big Ten West Division while the Hawkeyes must have a win to stay in contention and at home, the circumstances won't be preferable than this.


Rose Bowl Aspirations

The Cornhuskers are the team with real, legitimate chances of making it to the illustrious Rose Bowl. They still have to worry about a powerful Michigan State squad and the Ohio State Buckeyes, but the Huskers must focus on Friday's game that list's them as a 1 point road underdog. That said, it's difficult to forget about the 62-3 beating that Nebraska endured two weeks ago at the hands of the Ohio State Buckeyes.


Ground and Pound

It would best suit Nebraska if they kept this game on the ground while grinding out yardage. This is a team with 23 rushing touchdowns on the season, led by senior Terrell Newby (827 yards, 7 TD's) and quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr.

Newby is a punishing runner that's coming off of his best game of the season in which he reached the end zone 3 times to go along with 98 yards rushing. I don't expect anything flashy from Newby, but he's going to get his 70-90 yards and Nebraska has to feel positive about possessing a consistent and reliable running back.

As for Armstrong Jr., he's not a prolific passer, but he's quite capable of finding targets such as Jordan Westerkamp (476 yards, 5 TD's) and Armstrong Jr's ability to be a duel-threat, running the football, should create problems for the Iowa defense. Armstrong Jr.has 8 rushing touchdowns on the season. Eliminating turnovers will be the key to success for the senior quarterback.


Mirror Images

The Iowa offense is basically a mirror image of the Nebraska offense, but instead, C.J. Beahtard focuses on passing and has two running backs in Akrum Wadley (861 yards, 9 TD's) and Leshun Daniels Jr. (855, 8 TD's) that do the work. While Beathard has had a respectable season, he's thrown for just 146 yards on 17 completions in his last 2 games. This has to be a concern for Iowa and Beathard must look to be more aggressive in passing the football.

Nebraska has the better quarterback, more incentive to win this game, and the better overall team at very desirable NCAAF odds. Take the Cornhuskers in this matchup.

College Football Pick: Nebraska +1 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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