With a view towards total betting, we shine the spotlight on several college football matchups and serve up choice bets against total NCAAF lines and odds.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, 21 November, 2020 – 12:00 PM ET at Ohio Stadium
Indiana Hoosiers barely registered in preseason projections for Big Ten action. However, as the college football season enters week 12, the Indiana Hoosiers strike an impressive pose behind a perfect 4-0-0 SU mark. They augmented this record with a stunning 24-0 win over Michigan State last weekend, a game in which they smashed the 7.5-point closing spread and the UNDER cashed in total betting markets.
Next up for Indiana is a date against the highly fancied Ohio State Buckeyes, who boast a perfect 3-0-0 SU mark that includes wins over Nebraska, Penn State and Rutgers. Most recently, the Buckeyes are coming off a 49-27 win over Rutgers at home – a game in which they covered as the whopping 37.5 point faves and the OVER cashed in total betting markets.
Ohio State Buckeyes enter this game as the whopping double-digit faves, priced at -20.5 with multiple top-rated sportsbooks. The total, in the meantime, is trading at 65 points or thereabouts depending on your choice of betting site.
By the NCAAF odds, it’s clear the balance tips in favor of the hosts who are spotting nearly three touchdowns. The betting outlook has a lot to do with quarterback Justin Fields, who is making a strong case for going in the top two picks in the NFL draft next year. In three games, Fields has completed 87 percent of his passes for 908 yards with 11 touchdowns and no picks. That said, the defense isn’t always making his life easy, leaking yards at a generous rate and putting the pressure on offense as such.
It’s worth noting that betting trends appear to serve up the Hoosiers as the value underdog to spot for NCAAF picks in various markets. The Hoosiers are 4-0-0 ATS on the season, a run of form that includes a 14.5 point margin of victory. Also, the OVER has cashed in 3 of Indiana’s 4 games. Last Saturday’s date against Michigan State proved to be the outlier that bucked the trend. That said, Indiana’s defense is legit, allowing just 19.3 points per game.
All told, this is a pivotal game for week 12 NCAAF betting, one that could go either way when all is said and done. For those that are looking to bet this game, the total offers up great value. Especially, where the OVER is concerned, assuming both teams come out with a verve and swagger to give it their all.
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, 21 November, 2020 – 4:00 PM ET at Jack Trice Stadium
The Kansas State Wildcats are enjoying a modest season behind a 4-3-0 SU mark and a 4-2-0 SU mark in Big 12 action, the latter of which has them sat pretty in third place in the conference. Most recently, the Wildcats are coming off a 20-18 loss to Oklahoma State, the second setback in many weeks after losing to W. Virginia 37-10.
Overall, the Wildcats are 5-3-0 ATS on the season with a 4.0 winning margin on average, and the OVER has cashed in 4 of Kansas State’s 7 games. Kansas State is moving forward with Will Howard as the starter for the rest of the season, now that Skylar Thompson is ruled out.
Iowa State Cyclones, meanwhile, are riding high in Big 12 action behind a 5-2-0 SU mark and a 5-1-0 SU mark in Big 12 action, the latter of which has them sat lotus atop the conference standings. Most recently, the Cyclones edged Baylor in a 38-31 win Overall, the Cyclones are 3-4-0 ATS on the season with a 6.1 winning margin on average. The OVER has cashed in 4 of Iowa State’s 7 games.
Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy can get the passing game going (he went 15-for-24 for 164 yards and three touchdowns over Baylor), but is at times unpredictable (overall 10 TDs and 6 INTs on the season). The run game is a strength for the Cyclones. It is led by Heisman Trophy hopeful, RB Breece Hall, who carried a significant load by totting up 133 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Baylor.
Across various betting sites, the game opened on a 51.5 point total. However, since betting markets opened, the total has dropped down to 46.5 points almost unanimously, which is a big drop as far as betting goes. Sparked by reports of a coronavirus outbreak within Kansas State’s ranks, question marks are hanging over the potential starting line-up to take to the field for the Wildcats on Saturday.
All told, this game could go either way – assuming it gets underway on Saturday. However, with all the uncertainties that reign supreme, perhaps a small flutter on the UNDER is the safer bet for NCAAF picks.