NCAAF Picks Against The Spread - Maryland vs Michigan - Week 10

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, November 3, 2016 9:58 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 3, 2016 9:58 PM UTC

A young Maryland team faces a near impossible task as it visits 2nd ranked Michigan on Saturday. Is 31 points enough to think about taking the Terps as your NCAAF Pick?


2016 College Football Record: 24-25-2, -3.60 Units

The 3rd ranked Michigan Wolverines (8-0) are starting to attract some huge chalk lately, as they have been placed as 31-point favorites at home against the visiting Maryland Terrapins (5-3). The books have been ahead of the curve though, and the Wolverines have a nice and even 4-4 ATS trend to start their season.

When looking at the NCAAF Odds, the chalk is not without merit; however, as the Wolverines are near the top of every statistical category for both offense and defense so far this year. Starting with the offense, Big Blue is averaging 46.6 points per game which is 3rd in the country. They score very efficiently too, as they 'only' put up 477.1 yards per game. Compare this to a team like Texas Tech, who puts up 47.4 points a game on 603.4 yards of offense. Michigan is number one on defense in College Football, allowing only 11.6 points per game. But in this case, the Wolverines also allow the least amount of yards in the country at 231.1 per game. No discrepancy in points versus yards there.

Maryland brings a strong running game to this matchup, but they have been fairly one-dimensional so far this year. On the season they have gained 252 yards per game on the ground, good for 23rd in the country, but have only passed for 171.8 yards per game, near dead last in college football. They bring this offensive attack into a Michigan Stadium where the Michigan defense allows only 106 yards on the ground per game.

Adding some intrigue to this game is that Maryland Terrapins coach, DJ Durkin, used to work under Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh hasn’t shown a tendency to let up in games so far this year, so will he when playing against an old assistant coach? If anything, Durkin will know Harbaugh’s tendency’s which could give him the slightest of advantages. Maryland also starts many true freshmen against Michigan’s seniors, will Harbaugh start substituting to second and thirds string players if things get out of hand? One would think that none of Maryland’s starting freshmen will sub out at all.

I’m in the camp of backing Maryland here for one reason, and that is their strength in the running game. Their only chance is to stick with the run and shorten the game by keeping the clock running. It will be strength versus strength when it comes to Michigan’s defense, but I think the overall game plan will lower the scoring enough such that the 31 points that Maryland is getting will have some value. For my College Football Pick I say that you take all 31 points you are getting with Maryland on Saturday, as we likely will need most of them.

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Free College Football Pick: Maryland +31Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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