NCAAF Free Pick: Back Oklahoma State Over Texas Tech In Game With Massive Total

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, November 8, 2016 2:20 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016 2:20 PM UTC

Saturday afternoon's Big 12 matchup between Texas Tech and No. 17 Oklahoma State has the highest total I think I've ever seen at 90 on college football odds, and the host Cowboys are 12.5-point favorites at BetOnline.

Red Raiders Are Terrible Defensively

There was an interesting "bad beat" in last week's Texas Tech-Texas game as the total was set at 86. The 'over' took a heavy lean there and it looked like a lock as early in the fourth quarter Texas lead 45-37. The way those teams were going, it was impossible that game wasn't going 'over'. But then there were three straight possessions with punts and then each club turning it over on downs.

It came down to TTU's final possession. The Red Raiders would get to the Texas 20 with just over 2:11 left, but two Patrick Mahomes passes were incomplete and the third was picked off. Game over. Mahomes, who leads the nation in passing yards, put it up 59 times and completed 36 for 367  yards and three scores. He now has 101 TD passes in his career, second all-time at the school. Texas Tech's 468 yards of total offense was its 61st game in a row with at least 325 yards of total offense, the longest active streak in the FBS.

But yet again, that TTU defense is a joke as it allowed the Horns 658 yards, including an amazing 414 rushing. I'm really not sure if Coach Kliff Kingsbury can keep his job down there because it's the same old story every year.

Texas Tech (4-5, 2-4 Big 12) isn't looking great for a bowl bid as it would have to win two of its final three games and obviously is an underdog here, should win next week at Iowa State but then could be a dog again to close the season at home vs. Baylor.

The Red Raiders are 6-3 ATS on college football odds and 4-5 O/U.


Cowboys Still In Big 12 Title Hunt

No. 17 Oklahoma State (7-2, 5-1 Big 12) is a game back of rival Oklahoma for the Big 12 lead and the champion's guaranteed spot in a New Year's Six bowl game.  This will be the final year there's no Big 12 title game. This is the Pokes' final home game as they still visit TCU and Oklahoma (in a potential winner-take-all Bedlam game).

The Cowboys won their fifth straight game last Saturday, 43-37 at Kansas State. The Wildcats were up 9 midway through the fourth quarter, but James Washington scored on an 82-yard TD pass from Mason Rudolph with 7:45 to go and Chris Carson won it on a 17-yard TD run (and 2-point conversion) with 1:46 remaining. Kansas State would be left with plenty of time and did drive to the Oklahoma State 3-yard line. But after a penalty and on 2nd-and-goal from the 18, the Cowboys picked off  Jesse Ertz on the game's final play. The Cowboys, who have trailed at some point in their past six wins, have forced more turnovers than any Big 12 team. It was only OSU's second win in Manhattan in 10 visits dating to 1990.

OSU has won seven straight over Texas Tech and hasn't lost at home in the series since 2001. The Cowboys are 6-3 ATS this season and 6-3 O/U on college football picks. This will be a shootout, but I can't possibly go 'over' a total of 90.

NCAAF Free Pick: OSU -12.5 & 'Over'Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


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