NCAA Week 12 Odds: Michigan Will Rebound From Upset Loss To Crush Indiana

Michigan Wolverines

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, November 17, 2016 10:31 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 17, 2016 10:31 PM GMT

Will No. 3 Michigan be able to recover at home against Indiana on Saturday following last week’s stunning loss at Iowa? SBR contributor Ross Benjamin has a strong opinion on the matter, and he is 37-19 (66%) with his college football picks this year.

Indiana Hoosiers At Michigan Wolverines

The Wolverines (9-1) will look to bounce back from a shocking 14-13 defeat last week at Iowa, although U-M stayed at No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings. Michigan was a massive 24-point road favorite. U-M can still win the Big Ten East Division by winning this week and then next at No. 2 Ohio State. The Wolverines host much-improved Indiana (5-5) on Saturday. The opening kickoff from “The Big House” in Ann Arbor is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET and it will be televised by ESPN.

Michigan has dominated this head-to-head series to a tune of winning 20 in a row. The last Indiana win over Michigan came way back in 1987. The Wolverines won 48-41 in Bloomington a season ago.

At of this writing, college football betting odds at BookMaker have Michigan as a 23.5-point favorite and there’s a posted total of 51.0. Since 9/28/2007, Bookmaker has maintained an A+ grade according to a highly-respected online sports betting ratings guide.

 Weather Forecast

Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are forecasted for Saturday in Ann Arbor. Additionally, light showers or wet snow is also expected. If indeed that is the case, it will be greatly advantageous to Michigan. The Wolverines average 236 yards per game rushing and that accounts for 51.6% of their offense. Conversely, Indiana’s passing game makes up 64.6% of its total offense. If those types of weather conditions prevail, it will undoubtedly hinder both passing games and success on the ground will be imperative.

 Pertinent Team Trends

When the best sportsbooks have installed Indiana as a conference road underdog in recent years, they’ve been spot on in doing so. The Hoosiers are a miserable 0-11 ATS in their last 11 conference road games as an underdog of 27.0 or less. It’s also worth noting that Indiana has failed to beat a team this season that currently has winning record. Heading into this week, Indiana’s five wins have come over opponents that are a combined 17-34 (.333).

Michigan has gone 7-0 at home this season and won those games by an enormous margin of 36.9 points per. Last week’s Michigan loss marked just a 26th time since 1980 that an NCAA team was upset as a road favorite of 21.5 or greater. The good news for Michigan is those teams were a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS in their following game as a home favorite of 20.0 or greater and their averaging margin of victory came by an average of 44.3 points per game.

 

Final Take

If the season were to end today, Michigan would be one of the four teams in the College Football Playoff. However, with Louisville lurking in the No. 5 position, Michigan can ill afford a close or unimpressive win Saturday. Style points attained via a blowout victory will be crucial in U-M maintaining its current ranking. I’ll go with the sizable home favorite for one of my college football predictions.

NCAAF Free Pick: Michigan -23.5Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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