NCAA Football Predictions - Hidden Gem Of The Week - SMU vs Tulane

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 27, 2016 7:37 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 27, 2016 7:37 PM UTC

Joe Gavazzi has looked at the NCAAF odds board and found an obscure matchup that provides some very interesting matchup. The type of matchup where oddsmakers tend to get caught slipping.


 SMU vs Tulane -3 4:00 ET ESN

Each week in this very space, I look to isolate a HIDDEN GEM on the card. It is an often obscure matchup, which with over 50 games on the card and many Marquee Matchups, the public shows little interest. Yet, I seem to consistently find great value in these spots. Witness the 6-2 ATS record this season, including UTEP (+10) last week in their 52-49 OT upset at UTSA. Who picked that one?!?

In short, we look to PLAY ON a team, who was blown out last week, both SU and ATS. Correspondingly, we look to PLAY AGAINST their opponent, if they come off a resounding win, especially if it is of the upset variety. Exactly such case applies to today’s contest.

On a smaller national scale, the SMU victory, as 23 point home dog over Houston, was every bit as shocking as the Penn St. upset over Ohio St. Catching the Cougars flat, off the announcement that they would not be invited to the Big 12, the Ponies pranced to a 21-0 early lead and cruised to a 38-16 upset victory COVERING BY 45 POINTS. Now, they must find a way to carry over that momentum, when they face a Tulane team against whom they will be overconfident, considering their 49-21 victory last November 21st.

But, this is not your same Green Wave team whom they will face in New Orleans today.  After 4 years under Curtis Johnson, the Tulane administration made a great hire in Willie Fritz. Fritz’ option attack was responsible for the success at GA Southern in recent seasons, in which he coached the nation’s best-running attack (373/6.8 L2Y) and authored a 15-8 ATS mark in that time. He is now working his magic in New Orleans as he transforms the Green Wave from their 6-18 SU mark of recent seasons.  Last year, the Wave averaged just 116/3.5 overland. This year, they are averaging 251/4.9 on the ground.  Now facing a SMU defensive front that allows 4.2 YPR, expect them to have great success at this value price against a SMU team, who is not only in letdown mode, but, who prior to the Houston upset had allowed Temple and Tulsa to run for a combined 559 yards. I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Tulane this afternoon.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top rated sportsbooks is offering the best deals!

 Free College Football Pick: Tulane -3Best Line Offered: a Bookmaker

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