NCAA Football Predictions - Heavy Favorite Florida St. -10.5 To Crush North Carolina

Florida St. Seminoles Salute Each Other

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, October 1, 2016 1:11 PM GMT

Last week we cashed in against North Carolina, and this week it will be more of the same. The Florida State Seminoles who are still motivated from a loss two weeks ago. Here is our exclusive free college football pick.

 

 

 North Carolina vs Florida St. (-11) 3:30 ET

We enter Week 5 of the 2016 CFB season with enough statistical data to feel comfortable with its relevance. If you believe that the numbers don’t lie, you will want to review this week’s Article on this site entitled CFB Double Rushers and the 200 Club. It will give you a strong base for your statistical handicapping. Remember, that value remains the name of the game. Use your AFP theory, described in an Article 2 weeks ago, to continue to search for contrary plays at best prices. For the football season on this site, selections are now 22-13 ATS (63%) with a plethora of winners for this week. 

Part of the beauty of this selection is that N. Carolina came back to win the Pitt contest (37-36) by scoring in the closing seconds. That brings the team at 3-1 SU with an ACC victory and with 3 consecutive wins following an opening loss to Georgia. They figure to be less hungry, than if they had failed in their comeback effort at Pitt. Well aware that under 5th year HC Fedora, this is a powerful, offensive team and I do expect a relatively high-scoring game. The Tar Heels have had a weak link with their rush defense for 3 years now.  It will be their Achilles’ heel again today!  Two years ago, the Tar Heels allowed 241/5.2 overland. Last year, even with an improvement of 15 points and 62 yards on the defensive side of the ball, they still allowed 248/5.1 overland. This year, Georgia (289), James Madison (209) and Pitt (309) have all steamrolled the N. Carolina defensive front. Before you get excited about playing this double-digit offensive dog, note that HC Fedora is just 6-11 ATS as “short” in his career!

Two weeks ago, Florida St. was thoroughly embarrassed at Louisville with a 63-20 loss.  Last week, in the mother of all bounce backs, Florida St. thoroughly dominated a quality USF team in putting up 55 points and 647 total yards, that included 478 on the ground with 267 of those coming by RB Cook.  Much of the USF success on offense came in garbage time.  Is that Louisville loss 2 weeks ago, enough to motivate Florida St. for yet another week?  Most definitely!  In fact, in my opinion, the more they dominate, the more they will build on their success.  Must ride the Sems in this COLLEGE CRUSHER OF THE WEEK, as they look to take out more frustration on the defenseless Tar Heels!

I invite you to put the College Football odds in your favor and join me in my College Football pick on Florida St. this afternoon in your CRUSHER OF THE WEEK.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

 

Free College Football Pick: Florida St. -10.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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