NCAA Football Predictions Against The Spread - TCU vs Baylor - Week 10

TCU Horned Frogs

Thursday, November 3, 2016 9:14 PM GMT

TCU travels to Waco on Saturday, where they will meet the Baylor Bears. It has been a disappointing season for the Horned Frogs, will they turn things around this time around? Read on for Joe Gavazzi's NCAAF Pick.

TCU vs Baylor (-7) 3:30 ET

In last year’s meeting, TCU prevailed 28-21 as 2 point home dog, profiting from 5 Baylor TOs. In all, TCU has an 8-1 ATS series record vs. the Bears, going 3-3 SU but 6-0 ATS with no loss by more than 3 points since the Frogs joined the Big 12.  

The Baylor undefeated season came as no surprise to followers of the Bears. They perennially begin the season with an undefeated record. Much is due to a slate of weak non-conference opponents. This year, it was NW State, SMU and Rice. They escaped at home vs. Oklahoma St. (allowed 496 yards) and cruised vs. bottom-of-the-barrel Big 12 (Iowa St. and Kansas), but when faced with their first true road test, fell 35-34 at Texas last week. Now returning home as more than a TD favorite against a team who has dominated them, expect the Bears to perform poorly, as they suffer undefeated letdown. They will be doing so with injuries to QB Russell (head) and RB Linwood (hamstring). Those injuries are a reason why this line has dropped 2 ½ points from the opener. At 2-4 ATS for the season, the Bears are now on a 4-9 ATS slide, as they continue to deal with the repercussions of the sex scandal on their campus, which has cost former HC Art Briles his job.  He is now replaced by interim mentor, Jim Grobe.

Far more was expected from TCU, who looked to profit from the return of injured players, along with their 12 RS. Three narrow home losses (to Arkansas by 3, Oklahoma by 6 and last week Texas Tech by 3 in OT) have left them reeling. Yet, their stats say they should be playing much better, as they are outgaining the opposition by 78 YPG and have held their 2 most recent foes WVU to 389 yards and Texas Tech to only 345 yards last week.  After today, they have games vs. quality opponents (Oklahoma St, Texas and Kansas St.) to close the season. It makes this upset a virtual must if the Frogs are going to be in position for a Bowl bid, following their 23-3 SU record of the last 2 years. Fortunately, 16th year HC Patterson has excelled in this role with a record of 16-4 ATS, when getting 7 or more points. Let’s try the Frogs as dogs in an upset, as they catch the Bears in an undefeated letdown. I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on TCU this afternoon.

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Free College Football Pick: TCU +8.5Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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