NCAA Football Picks For Oklahoma vs. TCU - Clash to Stay South of Total

Oklahoma Sooners Players celebrate

Jay Pryce

Friday, September 30, 2016 3:46 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 30, 2016 3:46 PM UTC

Oklahoma opens Big 12 play against No. 21 TCU Saturday afternoon, an always-close matchup. We predict value in the total, as the side looks like a coin-flip. Check out the college football pick with bet preview here. 

Oklahoma Sooners (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)
Maybe opening Big 12 play is just what the Sooners need to restore some confidence after starting the season 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. They are 7-0 SU and 6-1 in their last seven against conference foes.

Offensively, quarterback Baker Mayfield was one of the top choices to win the Heisman prior to the year and can light up any team on any night. The junior is 55-of-85 with 793 yards passing, 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The newest and most dangerous threat on offense, though, may be running back Joe Mixon. Serving as Samaje Perine's backup, the sophomore picks up 8.4 yards per rush on 28 carries and is threatening the starting job. Perine will be the workhorse, but Mixon may be the difference-maker at TCU.

The Sooners defense came out of the Ohio State game banged up, prompting head coach Bob Stoops to allow an extra day off last week. Two defensive starters, end Matt Dimon and linebacker Tay Evans, will sit out. Stoops' secondary also has issues with three different players rotating in at one of the cornerback positions. Overall, the Sooners allow 31.7 points per game.

The OVER is 13-1 in Oklahoma's last 14 as road chalk in the Big 12 college football odds. Stoops' offense is driving up the score, notching 8.4 points per game more than projected.


TCU Horned Frogs (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Bettors can expect a close game in this matchup. TCU is 6-5 SU and 8-3 ATS as a home dog under long-standing head coach Gary Patterson. Its given 5.7 points per game on average, topping the spread by 8.5 overall. A 6-point teaser bet has cashed in all but one game. Moreover, since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12, four matchups with the Sooners have been decided by a total of 15 points.

Offensively, Former Texas A&M quarterback Kenny Hill is thriving at TCU. He ranks in the top 10 nationally in passing yards per game (371.8) and rushing touchdowns (6). The Horned Frogs' 547.3 yards per game is sixth most in the FBS.

The defense is not as strong as usual for Patterson, but still stout. It's allowing 359.3 yards per game. The run stopping has been solid, yielding 3.2 yards per carry. The pass rush is the unit's strength. TCU tops the conference with 14 sacks overall, and containing Mayfield's scrambling ability will be priority number one for a chance at victory Saturday.


Final Analysis
The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings. In the last two, Stoops ran the ball 59 and 42 times, attempting to keep the now-graduated Trevon Boykin and the potent passing game off the field. Hill has filled in nicely, and the air attack is clicking as well as last season. Expect Oklahoma to establish a run game in this one, or at least try. It will help keep the score south of the total. UNDER 70 is the college football pick.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.


Free College Football Pick: Under 70
Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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