NCAA Football Picks: Best & Worst Teams Against the Spread

Joe Catalano

Saturday, January 17, 2015 12:41 PM GMT

Look back at the NCAA Football Season of 2014-2015 and see who were the best and worst teams to bet ATS when we made or picks. Let's take a quick glimpse back and see who deserved our betting picks.

Teams With the Better Records "Usually" Were the Best Bets
Right away this seems to be a common theme as the top 13 teams with the best ATS records all had winning straight up records.

 

TCU Horned Frogs (12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS) 
While Trevone Boykin and the Horned Frogs were ranked 3rd in the AP Poll and didn't make the playoffs, their winning ways didn't go unnoticed at least in the betting world as TCU was regularly placed as a betting favorite and delivered. Maybe this is a team that didn't get enough credit where the point spread was placed also.

 

Ohio State Buckeyes (14-1 SU, 10-5 ATS)
Not only did the Buckeyes take down the National Championship as a relative underdog, they had the best over/under record where the over is concerned and they also had a very favorable record ATS. It's obvious that this team was underestimated by college football odds makers on all fronts. The Buckeyes did suffer unforeseen injuries, but they rose to the occasion whenever adversity was thrown their way and were a great bet in every sense of the word.

 

Oregon Ducks (13-2 SU, 10-5 ATS)
Although people are down on Oregon after losing to Ohio State in the championship game, they have a short memory as this was a fantastic season for Marcus Mariotta and the Ducks offense. Mariotta won the Heisman Trophy and is on his way to the NFL, but he made his mark in the betting world with a very good ATS season sealed with the destruction of the Florida State Seminoles and Jameis Winston in the playoff game where the Ducks covered the spread easily and ended Florida State's winning streak of almost 2 years.

This is a team in which the spread was placed high, but had such a great offense that they were capable of covering the spread and being a great bet on a weekly basis.

 

Over-Hyped Teams Weren't Good Bets
It's quite obvious by their records that some of the teams in the nation with huge reputations, were a good fade.

 

Alabama Crimson Tide (12-2 SU, 5-9 ATS)
Alabama, who reside in the best conference in the nation over the past few years, basically had a dynasty going with head coach Nick Saban. This is a team that continually sends top level players to the NFL and is almost "too good to play in the NCAA" according to some people. Naturally, when you consistently win like this university, you're going to be created as a huge NCAA Football pick. Although the Tide tackled most of their opponents, they couldn't tackle the spread in most instances and were a good fade.

 

Florida State Seminoles  (13-1 SU, 3-11 ATS)
I'm skipping to the bottom of the list because I could see this coming a mile away. Yes, Florida State won the national championship last year and had a near 2 year winning streak, but if you hadn't noticed, they did most of their winning this season coming from behind. The wins didn't come easy as the Seminoles were placed as betting favorites and simply couldn't cover the spread; they were just lucky to win the game.

On a closing note, the Connecticut Huskies (2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS) had the worst record against the spread because they were an underdog in every game and were so bad that no point spread could help them cover. Just like the teams that had a great SU record along with a great ATS record, there were also teams that lost their games and lost the bettors money if they tailed those respective teams.